141st Kentucky Derby Top 20 List

With the Kentucky Derby 95 days away, and the prep races well under way, it is time for my first Kentucky Derby top 20 list. An impressive list of three year old colts are being point to the First Saturday in May, led by 2014 Breeders Cup Juvenile (GI) winner Texas Red, American Pharaoh the Eclipse Award champion, and Upstart a very impressive winner this past weekend, and the undefeated Dortmund. Read below to know my Top 20 horses for the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby.

1. Texas Red- Won the biggest race for 2yo's in 2014 in impressive fashion, love how he covers the ground. The way he dominated last out indicates he is a special colt.

2. Imperia- Fired a strong second in his first try on dirt in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stk (GII) at Churchill Downs. He really should only improve with added dirt experience, and is certainly bred well enough.

3. Upstart- Talented colt could not have been more impressive in saturday's Holy Bull (GII) at Gulfstream Park. He should only improve off that effort and will be extremely dangerous down the road.

4. Dortmund- This undefeated colt for trainer Bob Baffert has done nothing wrong to this point. I am just skeptical of the quality of the Los Alamitos Futurity, in which he needed everything he had to win.

5. Frosted- Stablemate of Imperia has strung together two solid second place finishes in graded company in his last two outings. I believe he is extremely talented and is capable against any of these.

6. American Pharaoh- The 2yo Eclipse Award champion is just getting underway after an injury knocked him out of the Breeders Cup. He would be much higher on this list if not for the injury.

7. Carpe Diem- This horse did not have an easy trip in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (GI) as one of the favorites. He has proven he is talented and this Grade 1 winner is still very much a contender.

8. Calculator- This colt broke his maiden in a stakes race last time out in the Sham Stakes (G3) impressively at Santa Anita. Prior to that he chased American Pharoah and Texas Red around but seemed matured and improved last time out against a relatively weak field.

9. El Kabeir- This John Terranova trainee has improved in his last two winning the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stk. as Churchill and followed that performance up by dominating a weak field in the GII Jerome at Aqueduct. Defeated #2 Imperia at Churchill, but believe it was biased aided.

10. Firing Line- Was just beaten by Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity (GI), and was arguably better. I do want to see him repeat that effort, but he could quickly rise up with a good effort.

11. Leave the Light On
12. Daredevil
13. International Star
14. Mr. Z
15. Far Right
16. Tiznow R J
17. Competitive Edge
18. J S Bach
19. Ocho Ocho Ocho
20. Bluegrass Singer

Initial Derby Top 20 2-24-2013

Following the the Fountain of Youth and Risen Star Stakes it is time to unveil my Kentucky Derby Top 20. There have been plenty of twists and turns already, but with a shocking upset in yesterdays Risen Star and a heavy favorite going down in the Fountain of Youth, the Derby trail is in full swing. Here is my initial list.

Kentucky Derby Top 20
1. Verrazano- Very impressed with first two races, tries two turns in Tampa Bay Derby
2. Flashback- Yet to be tested, but based on Baffert's comments he is a freak
3. Orb- Loved his FOY win, he seems like a Derby horse, ran into wicked pace
4. It'smyluckyday- He has had two perfect trips but Holy Bull was good
5. Shanghai Bobby- He deserves a chance to rebound off last race, but needs a better run in Fla. Derby
6. Revolutionary- His win in the Withers was breathtaking, already battle tested
7. Super Ninety Nine- Tough to ignore his dominant win in Southwest, improved at two turns
8. Palice Malice- Impressed me the most in Risen Star, first start at two turns, he should improve
9. Goldencents- He has not done anything wrong, deserves to be in top 10
10. Overanalyze- Forgotten Pletcher horse, needs to make an impression in Gotham
11. Normandy Invasion
12. Vyjack
13. Speak Logistics
14.  Dynamic Sky
15. Falling Sky
16. Shakin It Up
17. Oxbow
18. Sunbean
19. Cerro
20. Tiz the Truth

Stakes Races 6-28-2012

This weekend is headlined by graded stakes races at Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, Prairie Meadows, Hollywood Park, Monmouth Park, and a major stakes race at Charles Town.

Belmont Park

GII New York Stakes $200,000
1. Aruna
2. Banimpire
3. Hit it Rich

GII Dwyer Stakes $200,000
1. Unstoppable U
2. Teeth of the Dog
3. Fast Falcon

Betfair Hollywood Park $250,000

GI Triple Bend Handicap
1. Smiling Tiger
2. Comma to the Top
3. Mobilized

GI Shoemaker Mile Stakes $250,000
1. Mr. Commons
2. Jeranimo
3. Liberian Freighter

Prairie Meadows

GIII Iowa Oaks $200,000
1. Tapajo
2. Uptown Bertie
3. Ice Cream Silence

GIII Iowa Derby $200,000
1. Hansen
2. Truetap
3. Alsvid

GIII Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap $300,000
1. Succesful Dan
2. Awesome Gem
3. Headache

Churchill Downs

GIII Bashford Manor Stakes $100,000
1. Positively
2. Roman's Avenue
3. Special Jo

Monmouth Park

GIII Eatontown Handicap $100,000
1. Unbridled Humor
2. Vivo Per Lei
3. Ruthenia

Charles Town

Red Legend Stakes $400,000
1. Il Villano
2. Innocent Man
3. Flashy Dresser

Weekend Stakes Races 6-16-12 6-17

The Weekend is headlined by an incredible rendition of the G1 Stephen Foster H. as well as the Vanity Handicap at Betfair Hollywood Park, as well as good cards at Belmont, Colonial, and a graded stake at Delaware.

Churchill Downs

Grade  III Matt Winn Stakes $100,000
1. Neck 'n Neck
2. Mucho Macho
3. Right to Vote

Grade III Regret Stakes $100,000
1. Coup
2. Heart of Destiny
3. Colonial Flag

Grade II Fleur De Lis. Handicap $150,000
1. St. John's River
2. Royal Delta
3. Afleeting Lady

Grade I Stephen Foster Handicap $400,000
1. Wise Dan
2. Nehro
3. Ron the Greek

Belmont Park

Grade III Hill Price Stakes $150,000
1. Howe Great
2. Our Entourage
3. Summer Front

Betfair Hollywood Park

GI Vanity Handicap $250,000
1. Ellafitz
2. Include Me Out
3. Atlantic Swing

Colonial Downs

GIII Edward P. Evans All Along Stakes $100,000
1. Snow Top Mountain
2. La Pernelle
3. Speak Easy Gal
Pachattack would be my pick but I expect her to run in the Obeah at Delaware.

Colonial Turf Cup $500,000
1. Casino Host
2. Humble and Hungry
3. Smart Bid

Delaware Park

GIII Obeah Stakes $150,000
1. Pachattack
2. Love and Pride
3. She Be Classy

The 144th Running of the Belmont Stakes

The Belmont Stakes is the third and final leg of the Triple Crown. Run over a 1 ½ miles at Belmont Park. The Belmont Stakes is known as the "Test of Champions", and is  the longest and most grueling of the three Triple Crown races.  In this year's 144th running of the Belmont Stakes all eyes will be on a single horse, I'll Have Another. I'll Have Another will attempt to become the 12th Triple Crown Winner and first since 1978 when Affirmed accomplished the task. I'll Have Another breaks from post number 11 and is 4-5 odds on the morning line. His main competitors in the race will come from Dullahan (#5) who was a stong third in the Kentucky Derby, Union Rags (#3), a troubled 7th in the Kentucky Derby, and Paynter, a talented runner hailing from the barn of Bob Baffert. Below will be my horse by horse analysis of the Belmont Stakes followed by my selections. Happy Belmont week, and hopefully on Monday I will be blogging about the 12th Triple Crown winner!

PP  Name  (Odds)   [My Odds] 

1  Street Life (12-1)   [10-1] -  Street Life is trained by the young, but proven Chad Brown, owned in part by Houston Texans owner Robert McNair and is ridden by the always capable Jose Lezcano. Street Life will be a factor in this year’s Belmont Stakes. Street Life will be off of the television screen early in the race because he is a very deep closer. Street Life likes to drop way behind and make one big kick towards the end of the race. Street Life comes into the Belmont Stakes off of a respectable third place effort in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park four weeks ago. Prior to the Peter Pan he had a poor showing in the Wood Memorial, a Kentucky Derby prep race. Street Life will have no problem with the Belmont distance. There is a common misperception that to win the Belmont Stakes a horse needs to be far back. This is not true. Street Life will be running late, is bred for the distance, and is fond of the Belmont Park surface, making him a factor in the Belmont Stakes. 

2. Unstoppable U (30-1) [40-1]- Unstoppable U is undefeated for trainer Ken McPeek, and jockey Junior Alvarado. Unstoppable U is taking a major step up in class. He won a maiden special weight at Aqueduct followed by an allowance win going a mile at Belmont Park. Following that wire to wire win at Belmont Park Unstoppable U is being thrown into deep water in the Belmont Stakes. Unstoppable U is going to be a factor though because he is going to go to the lead. I believe he is talented, but this race is too long for him. Unstoppable U is going to see pace pressure from Union Rags among others. Unstoppable U will have the lead for about a mile but will not be a factor when the winner crosses the finish line.

3. Union Rags (6-1) [9-2]- Union Rags has gotten himself into trouble. In his Kentucky Derby prep, the Florida Derby he never really had a chance to run and the Kentucky Derby was a complete debacle as he ended up finish seventh. Trained by Michael Matz and ridden for the first time by John Velasquez, Union Rags is in the perfect spot to get the perfect trip he has desired all year. Ideally, Union Rags will sit in a comfortable spot in second right off of Unstoppable U. This makes Union Rags the most dangerous threat to I'll Have Another's Triple Crown attempt. Union Rags has run at Belmont Park once and romped in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes as a 2 year old. Union Rags gets the services of John Velasquez who will put him in a position to win the race. Union Rags should not have a problem with the 1 1/2 distance and when they turn for home he will be the horse the rest of the field will have to catch. 

4. Atigun (30-1) [25-1]- Atigun also comes from the barn of Ken McPeek. Atigun may be the more fancied of the two. Atigun was on the Kentucky Derby trail earlier this year by way of Arkansas. Atigun was a non factor in the Rebel Stakes or the Arkansas Derby. Atigun was successful in his last start, an allowance race at Churchill Downs. The problem with Atigun is that he has struggled in high quality races, and the Belmont is certainly a high quality horse race. Atigun will be towards the back of the pack, and does not have the kick to win the race. He should be able to handle the 1 1/2 which will put him in the top half of the running order, but Atigun is not good enough to hit the board. 

5. Dullahan (5-1) [7-2]- Dullahan is widely regarded as the most likely Belmont Stakes winner if I'll Have Another falters. Dullahan seemed to prove in the Kentucky Derby that he handles dirt. Dullahan is trained by Dale Romans and will be ridden for the first time by Javier Castellano. Dullahan is a closer as well, but I expect him to be closer to I'll Have Another in the Belmont Stakes. Dullahan will have to pass both Union Rags and I'll Have Another in the Belmont, a task I do not think that he will be able to accomplish. Dullahan is fresh, and Castellano is riding better than anyone in the country, but I think Dullahan still has to prove he is a capable dirt horse away from Churchill Downs, and for this reason I will look elsewhere in the Belmont Stakes. 

6.  Ravelo's Boy (50-1) [75-1]- Ravelo's Boy comes into the Belmont Stakes off a layoff. In his last race he was a non-factor in the Tampa Bay Derby a race that has produced very little. Ravelo's Boy has been over matched in his stakes appearances and will be over matched in the Belmont Stakes. Some horses have won the Belmont Stakes unexpectedly ,but this horse would be an absolute shock. He will have the services of the veteran Alex Solis but that will not be enough to make Ravelo's Boy a factor in the third leg of the Triple Crown.

7. Five Sixteen (50-1) [50-1]- Five Sixteen will be bet below his morning line for one reason, his jockey, Rosie Napravnik, the popular female jockey. Rosie became the first female jockey to win the Kentucky Oaks five weeks ago and will attempt to become the second female jockey to win the Belmont Stakes, but it will not happen. Five Sixteen was a non-factor last time out in an Aqueduct allowance race. This race is a major step up in class, and Five Sixteen will not be up to the task. 

8. Guyana Star Dweej (50-1) [60-1]- Guyana Star Dweej is simply over matched. Guyana Star Dweej is coming out of the same allowance race Unstoppable U was victorious in. Guyana Star Dweej was not finishing particularly well when he finished second in that race. I believe the 1 ½ miles will not suit him well. The class of the race will also get in the way of Guyana Star Dweej big to win the Belmont, who is not good enough to win this race.  Guyana Star Dweej gets the services of Belmont Stakes winning jockey Kent Desormeaux, but it will not matter. 

9. Paynter (8-1) [10-1]- Paynter is trained by Bob Baffert, ridden by Mike Smith, and owned by Ahmad Zayat, the same exact connections as Bodemeister. These connections will take their third crack at I'll Have Another but this time with a different horse. Paynter comes off an easy win at Pimlico on Preakness Day. The race was visually impressive, as Paynter was too good for that field. Paynter has been unsuccessful in his two stakes tries but for good reason. Paynter stepped into the Santa Anita Derby off a maiden win and ran very well to finish fourth. Paynter then ran in the Derby Trial and ran a good second at one turn. Back to two turns at Pimlico he was dominant. Paynter is a very dangerous horse to I'll Have Another's quest simply because of his connections and the fact that he is improving every single race. Watch Out.

10. Optimizer (20-1) [15-1]- Optimizer is trained by legendary D. Wayne Lukas and will be ridden by Corey Nakatani. Optimizer has run in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes and has been a relative non-factor. Optimizer is bred to run a 1 ½  miles but the problem is he is bred to run 1 ½  on the turf. Optimizer has been relatively ineffective on the dirt and has been better on turf and synthetic. He is by English Channel who won the Breeders Cup Turf at the Belmont Distance but it was on the lawn. Optimizer will relish the distance so he will be in the top half of the race but is simply not good enough to win or even hit the board in the Belmont Stakes 

11. I'll Have Another (4-5) [1-1]-  I'll Have Another has the opportunity to make history in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday. Following thrilling victories in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, I'll Have Another is on the cusp of becoming the 12th  horse to win the Triple Crown,  and the first since 1978. I'll Have Another is trained by Doug O'Neil and ridden by the young and inexperienced Mario Gutierrez. I'll Have Another could not have drawn better in the 11 post. Gutierrez will be able to watch the race unfold to his inside and will be able to stay outside of all of the traffic. He should get a good stalking trip and turning for home will have no excuses. The question will be, can I'll Have Another catch Union Rags and Paynter, and then hold off Dullahan and Street Life? I'll Have Another will be the focal point of the nation’s attention on Saturday. He has been perfect this year, but I have yet to pick I'll Have Another in the Triple Crown and that will not change Saturday. 

12. My Adonis (20-1) [30-1]- My Adonis is an up and down sort of horse. Trained by Kelly Breen and owned by George and Lori Hall who owned Ruler on Ice the winner of the Belmont Stakes last year. My Adonis began the year by running strong races in both the Holy Bull and the Gotham Stakes, but followed that up by two disappointing efforts. My Adonis will follow I'll Have Another into position and should have a good opportunity to run. My Adonis could very well jump up and run a big race but he is too unpredictable to put my trust in. 

Selections 

1. Union Rags

2. I'll Have Another

3. Street Life

I hope I'll Have Another wins on Saturday. I will be rooting for him, but based on my knowledge I believe Union Rags will win the Belmont Stakes. 

The Breeders Cup needs Black Caviar and Frankel

Horse Racing is a global sport and unbelievably does not revolve around the United States. Black Caviar and Frankel are the best horses in the world. Both are undefeated and dominate in their divisions in their respective countries. The great thing for the United States is that the Breeders Cup World Thoroughbred Championships already has the divisions in place for these horse. The Breeders Cup Mile or Classic would suit Frankel perfectly and the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint would more than suit Black Caviar. The Breeders Cup is a long way away but they need to recruit these two horses now because, yes bringing I'll Have Another to the Classic would be exciting, but what horse racing thrives off of is global stars. Black Caviar must be the first priority. The mare has Zenyatta status in Australia and is gaining notoriety in the United States. I think the Breeders Cup must do whatever they need to do to get this mare to the United States. If I were in charge of the Breeders Cup here is what I would do. I would raise the purse of the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint to $3,000,000 this would attract turf sprinters from all over the world as well as being more intriguing for Black Caviar. I would also provide a prep race at Santa Anita with a significant purse to attract Black Caviar to the United States for two races. This would also allow the super-mare to be on her game come Breeders Cup day. Lastly I would move the Turf sprint back in the race order so that it would be aired on the same broadcast as the Breeders Cup Classic. This mare has is at all. She is really fast. She would bring an audience from all over the world including her massive following in Australia. The Turf Sprint with the addition of Black Caviar would share the spotlight with the Breeders Cup Classic. Frankel is the most electrifying horse in the world. His talent and grace  makes him a superstar. He is, like Black Caviar, undefeated, and would provide a spark to the Breeders Cup Classic or the Mile. Another horse to watch would be Camelot, Camelot is undefeated following his Investec Darby win this morning. This is hypothetical and a long way away but the Breeders Cup Classic could contain two Triple Crown winners, I'll Have Another and Camelot which would make the Breeders Cup Classic the best race in decades. Simply put the Breeders Cup is a World Thoroughbred Championships and to fulfill that name they need to bring the best horses from around the world and right now some of the best horses in the world are running outside of the United States.

The Preakness Stakes

This Saturday's Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown includes four out of the first five finishers of the Kentucky Derby. The Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another headlines the race but the runner up Bodemeister will be the post time favorite. Went the Day Well fourth in the Derby will garner attention as will Creative Cause, and do not forget about the five newcomers in the years Preakness. I will do a horse-by-horse analysis followed by my selections at the bottom. A new feature in this blog will be "My odds" these are the odds I believe will be acceptable come post time. Happy Preakness!

PP Horse       M.L. Odds  My Odds

1 Tiger Walk  30-1            40-1- Tiger Walk is owned by Kevin Plank, who started Under Armour. Kevin Plank is a Maryland guy, his farm is in Maryland his horses are trained in Maryland and he himself went to the University of Maryland. Plank is great for racing in Maryland but I believe Tiger Walk is in this year’s Preakness to provide the Maryland boys a thrill, but not to pose a real threat in winning the race.  Tiger Walk has knocked on the door of hitting the board in New York graded stakes races this year but has not had that final gear to get him there, and I do not think it will be there on Saturday. Tiger Walk will make a late move but it will not be enough to hit the board. 

2. Teeth of the Dog 15-1   20-1- Teeth of the Dog is trained by Michael Matz and is his backup to the unlucky Union Rags. Teeth of the Dog comes off a decent third place effort in the Wood Memorial but the problem with the Wood Memorial, Gemologist the winner was 16th in the Kentucky Derby and Alpha the runner up was 12th. The Wood Memorial did not stack up against the best three year olds in the country two weeks ago, and I do not think Teeth of the Dog will change that on the third Saturday in May.  

3. Pretension 30-1       50-1- Pretension comes off a win in a the Canonero II stakes at Pimlico two weeks ago. In that race he defeated once highly regarded My Adonis. The problem I have with Pretension, in his start prior to the Canoreo II he was a non-factor in the Illinois Derby, the Preakness is a much tougher race than the Illinois Derby.  Pretension has little to no chance on Saturday. 

4. Zetterholm 20-1   15-1- Zetterholm is the most interesting "new shooter" having not raced in the Kentucky Derby; Zetterholm comes into the Preakness fresh. Zetterholm is taking a massive step up in class in the Preakness, after losing his debut he has reeled up three straight including a stakes win last time out. The problem is that stakes win was an overnight at Aqueduct for New York breds. This is a huge step up but Zetterholm is obviously talented, I look for him to be slightly overmatched but certainly he has a chance to be a factor. 

5. Went the Day Well 6-1  9-2- Describing Went the Day Well's Kentucky Derby trip in words is almost impossible. Went the Day Well should never have made a run, he was cut off early was way too far back, had trouble on the first turn and was as far back as he could be turning for home and yet he still rallied to finish fourth. Went the Day Well does not need to be far back, in fact he was fourth the whole way around before pouncing to the lead and winning the Vinery Racing Spiral. Went the Day Well will have no problem with the two-week turn around because of his light-seasoning prior. He has looked great at Fair Hill coming up to the race and is primed to run a monster race. 

6. Creative Cause 6-1  8-1- Creative Cause's trip in the Kentucky Derby might have been the only trip worse than Went the Day Well's and Union Rags. He ran further than any horse ran in the Derby and still managed to make a big run to finish fifth. I think the Derby took an immense amount of energy out of Creative Cause, and add the cross-country trip and back I think Creative Cause has undergone way too much to run his race on Saturday, 

7. Bodemeister 8-5  1-1- The race Bodemeister ran in the Kentucky Derby was impressive. He set torrid fractions was pressed the whole way and still managed to hold on for second. He ran the 5th fastest half-mile in the history of the Derby and still managed to hit the board, not to mention every horse around him became a non-factor in the stretch. Bodemeister will be tough to pass on Saturday. He comes into a race that does not have an abundance of speed unlike the Derby and will be doctored along by Mike Smith. Bodemeister has yet to bounce but this is his third race in five weeks, a extremely tough task for a lightly raced horse like Bodemeister. I think he will be very tough and will hit the board but I will try and beat him on Saturday.

8. Daddy Nose Best 12-1  20-1- I was quite high on Daddy Nose Best going into the Kentucky Derby but he proved in the Derby he was not good enough to win at this level. He ran an even race but never made a major run. I look for him to run a similar race on Saturday. I do think Daddy Nose Best is better than a significant amount of horse in this race and I believe he will finish in the upper half of this race but he will not be good enough to hit the board.

9. I'll Have Another- 5-2  2-1- I'll Have Another ran a perfect race in the Kentucky Derby, he had a perfect trip and Bodemeister faded just in time. I admire the race he ran and I admire Doug O' Neil for sending I'll Have Another to Baltimore so quickly after the Derby, but I think I'll Have Another's undefeated season and Triple Crown run will come to an end on Saturday. I'll Have Another runs well fresh; he won the Robert Lewis off a massive layoff, followed by the Santa Anita Derby off a long layoff. He had four weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby, but this time he only gets two. The brightside is he did not have a grueling campaign coming into the Triple Crown; the downside is he may not run well without any freshening. He really should get a perfect trip again right off the pace but I just do not see him finishing as well on Saturday, but hopefully he will prove me wrong so the Triple Crown run can continue. 

10. Optimizer 30-1  30-1- A lot like Daddy Nose Best, Optimizer ran a very average race in the Kentucky Derby, he finished right in the middle of the field and never made much of an impact and finished 11th. A believe Optimizer will not be much of a factor on Saturday because he is just not good enough to win the race. He may make a run for the coach D. Wayne Lukas but I am fairly confident he will not hit the board. 

11. Cozetti- 30-1  40-1- Cozetti ran a decent race in the Arkansas Derby, the problem was he was really far behind Bodemeister. Cozetti is improving and the gray son of Cozzene will be easy to spot in the field, but I simply believe he is Dale Romans replacement to Dullahan in this race. I do not think he is good enough to get a share of the pot. 

Selections

1. Went the Day Well

2. Bodemeister

3. I'll Have Another

4. Zetterholm 

Kentucky Oaks Day Picks 5/4/2012

The Kentucky Oaks is the feature on the Friday card at Churchill downs. The undercard is headlined by a fantastic race in the American Turf and the Alysheba for older males, as wel last the La Troienne featuring Plum Pretty. My selections for the stakes race on Kentucky Oaks day are below!!

Race 6 The La Troienne (Grade II) $300,000
1. Plum Pretty
2. Absinthe Minded
3. Juanita

In the La Troienne the first graded stakes races on the friday card will have the shortest priced favorite in Plum Pretty. Plum Pretty won her first race of the year in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn and the going does not get much tougher today. She will be an overwhelming and deservingly so. She is 1 for 1 over the Churchill surface with that win coming in the Kentucky Oaks. I will be shocked if she losesm and I am making Plum Pretty my top selection. Absinthe Minded can always jump up and give a big effort and I will look for a good effort on Friday but not good enough to beat Plum Pretty.

Race 7 The Eight Belles (Grade III) $100,000
1. Small Kitchen
2. Contested
3. Good Deed

The Eight Belles is an interesting race becasue Small Kitchen is cutting back to one turn following a lackluster effort around two turns. I think she is the most talented runner in the field and I look for her to rebound. Bob Baffert could not be hotter and I think Contested will be right there at the wire.

Race 8 The Edgewood $150,000
1. Disposablepleasure  (12-1) ML
2. Stephanie's Kitten
3.  More than Love

The Edgewood for three year old fillies on the turf features Stephanie's Kitten who was a dissapointing third last time out in the Ashland at Keeneland. This race for her serves as a prep for the Coronation at Royal Ascot in June. She is the class of the race but I believe the riders will target her in the race based on her Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf win last year. Disposablepleasure tries turf on friday and I will believe she will take to the grass and defeat Stephanie's Kitten who I think could run into traffic.

Race 9 The Alysheba Stakes (Grade II) $300,000
1. Mucho Macho Man
2. Boxeur De Reus (30-1)
3. Succesful Dan

The Alysheba is a very compettive race and features Mucho Macho Man who is one of the top older males in training this year and Succesful Dan who returend at Keeneland with an impressive win. I think it will take Succesful Dan one more start to return to this level of compettion and Mucho Macho Man is the horse to beat. Mucho Macho Man ran a very solid third last year in the Kentucky Derby showing his affinity for the Churchill surface. He has run two impressive races this year and I think he will continue his roll in the Alysheba. Boxeur de Reus ran a decent race last time out in the Santa Anita Handicap and I think he could hit the board at a big price for O'Neil and Guttierez a preview of the Derby. I think Succesful Dan will run his race but this is a quick turnaround and might need this race.

Race 10 The American Turf (Grade II) $200,000
1. Howe Great
2. Gung Ho
3. Star Channel

The American Turf is for three year old males on the turf and for me the race starts with Howe Great. Even though he is in the 14 post position he has never lost on grass and until he does I am not going to pick against him. The race is filled with speed which does not set up for Silver Max who won the Transylvania last time out gate to wire. I like Gung Ho to come running late but I think Howe Great will have the jump turning for home.

Race 11 The Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) $1,000,000
1. Hard Not To Like (20-1)
2. Grace Hall
3. On Fire Baby
This year I beleive the Kentucky Oaks is a wide open race and for that reason I like the three year old filly named Hard Not To Like. I was very encouraged by her last race which was her first race off a decent layoff.  I am willing to take the risk that she will take to the dirt because if she does she will be right there at the wire. I love her at what should be a price well over 15-1. Grace Hall is as consistent as they come, she has has never run a bad race and I look for that to continue on Friday, but I do not know if she will get a great trip. I think she is too good to not hit the board but I will pick against her. On Fire Baby has done nothing wrong on conventional dirt but I think the compettion might catch up to her a bit on Friday, she will be close but I think she will get caught late. The Oaks is a strong deep field and really any of them could win it, but I love the canadian filly to make a splash in the Oaks its Hard Not to Like her.

Weekend Stakes Races 4/21/12

This weekend features the Doubledogdare on Friday at Keeneland and the Coolmore Lexington on Saturday as well as two graded stakes races on the grass at Santa Anita and one stakes race at Pimlico.

Keeneland

The Doubledogdare S. (G3)
1. Pachattack
2. Principal Role
3. La Gran Bailadora

The Doubledogdare features the return of Pachattack who finished a really good third in last years Breeders Cup Ladies Classic, I think she will get the job done on Friday. Principal Role is making her first start in the United States, she has been very consistent in Europe so I look for her to continue that trend on Friday. La Gran Bailadora should enjoy the added distance but is probably not good enough to get there. I think Joyful Victory has regressed from last year will be too short of a price. Kathmanblu makes her first start of the year she got off track last year and has the oppurtunity to get back on track on friday.

The Coolmore Lexington (G2)
1. Holliday Road
2. News Pending
3. Gold Megillah

The Coolmore Lexington is the last race on the Derby Trail. The favorites will be Morgan's Guerilla and Castaway, I do not like either. I love Holliday Road who took a huge step forward on the poly track last time in the Spiral. I think News Pending will rebound as well, I think the polytrack will suit him. Gold Megillah can't seem to get a good trip I think he will on saturday and should run a good race.

Santa Anita

The San Simeon (G3)
1. Compari
2. Irish Art
3. California Flag

Santa Barbara (G2)
1. Vamos a Galupiar
2. Cambina
3. Capital Plan

Pimlico
The Dahlia
1. Master Shade
2. Idle Talk
3. Coco Ecolo

New Derby Top 20 4/18/2012

1. Gemologist- The horse fights hard, he is a winner, and has won at churchill
2. Bodemeister- If he runs anything like that on Derby day he will be tough
3. Daddy Nose Best- There is a lot of speed and he has Gomez
4. Union Rags- He needs to step up but the race sets up for him
5. Creative Cause- I am not sure why they are so apprehensive to put blinkers on him
6. I'll Have Another- He is 2 for 2 this year, can't blame him for that
7. Alpha- He earned my respect in the Wood but was never getting by Gemologist
8. Dullahan- He is built for the Derby Distance but I question his dirt ability
9. Went the Day Well- Flying Under the radar should love Derby Distance
10. Take Charge Indy- Improving will be off the pace in the Derby
11. Sabercat- Third off the layoff at churchill watchout
12. Hansen- If he gets 1 1/4 I will be shocked, there is a lot of speed in the race as well
13. Secret Circle- He always fires will be right off the pace
14. Daddy Long Legs- I don't particulary get it his dirt race was horrid
15. El Padrino- He is better 15 but I am not sure he will get in
16. Mark Valeski- Also on the border whether he gets in or not could be a factor though
17. Done Talking- Ran well in the Illinois Derby third off the layoff he has a chance from off the pace
18. Wrote- He has some upside if he likes the dirt.
19. Liason- He disliked the Santa Anita dirt, but does he like dirt at all
20. Prospective- Not good enough

I think Rousing Sermon will run in Snow Chief, if he chooses Derby I would put him at 18 and move Liason and Wrote back, and move Prospective out of the top 20.

Derby Top 20 4/10/12

Derby Top 20
1. Gemologist- I loved how hard he fought in the Wood, loves Churchill
2. Creative Cause- Santa Anita Derby was discouraging
3. Daddy Nose Best- Work was good, under rated, will be a nice price on Derby Day
4. Union Rags- I keep waiting for him to step up on the big day
5. Hansen- Bluegrass is a really tough race, track is playing to speed though
6. I'll Have Another- I am thinking bounce in the Derby
7. Bodemeister- needs to win Arkansas Derby to get in Derby, he very well could though
8. Went the Day Well- graded earnings are all of the sudden an issue, but he should get in.
9. Alpha- Was never going to get by Gemologist but his race was very impressive
10. Take Charge Indy- He should get good trip in Derby, may not be good enough
11. Dullahan- Bluegrass will be a good test on how good he is, but dirt is question
12. Secret Circle- He has the earnings whether Arkansas derby goes well or not
13.Mark Valeski- I hope he gets in he is a good racehorse
14. Daddy Long Legs- I don't get it his BC Juvenile was awful
15. Prospective- He has not done anything wrong yet this year
16. Howe Great- needs graded earnings and Bluegrass is tough, but he is a winner
17. Wrote- He has the graded earnings as well O'Brien wants a derby but I dont think this is the horse
18. Liason- The horse does not want dirt, get over it, but he has the earnings
19. Sabercat- Needs a huge step up in Arkansas Derby, if not Derby should not be next step
20. Done Talking- I thought Illinois Derby was good, his Remsen was good, he can run.

Sidenote- El Padrino is a ton of trouble, I don't think he can get in, and Trinniberg is more likely for Preakness although he has enough Graded earnings.

Derby Top 20

1. Union Rags (Will learn a lot this weekend, he does not need to win but he needs to run really well)
2. Algorithms (Moves up with Creative Cause loss and strong work)
3. Fed Biz (Great allowance win)
4. Creative Cause (Was slightly discouraged by third place finish)
5. Battle Hardened (Sam Davis was weak but he will improve)
6. Gemologist (Loves Churchill needs to run soon though)
7. Out of Bounds (Will be part of loaded San Felipe)
8. Discreet Dancer (Work was good might be over his head this weekend)
9. Alpha (Waiting for Wood is a good move, he is on a roll)
10. I'll Have Another (Good Lewis win waiting till Santa Anita Derby, runs well fresh)
11. El Padrino (Heads Risen Star we will see how good he is)
12. Hansen (Gotham is a very important race for 2yo champion)
13. Howe Great (Under the Radar)
14.  Take Charge Indy (Will be factor in Fountain of Youth)
15. Empire Way (Improving  in every start)
16. Secret Circle (Southwest was very good, showed grit)
17. Ever So Lucky (I need to see something big from him next time out)
18. Castaway (Won slower version of Southwest but blew field away)
19. Dullahan (Will return soon, I have questions)
20. Shared Property (Ran the best race in Lecomte)

Gulfstream Stakes races 2/11/12

GulfStream Park 2012




Gulfstream Park is host to a phenomenal day of racing on Saturday. Headlined by the return of Shackelford, Ruler On Ice, the emergence of Trickmeister, and the dangerous Flat Out, making the Donn the race of the year so far. The Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap follows the Donn, another field that is loaded with talent, the race features Silver Medallion winner of two in a row, Boisterous, who is always dangerous especially on the cut back, and the always consistent Smart Bid. The Hutchenson features the talented Ever So Lucky who towers over the field talent wise but there are questions on whether or not he will run.



The Hutcheson, a 7 furlong race on the main track is all about Ever So Lucky, if he runs the race he is supposed to he is head and shoulders better than the rest. His only one turn race was phenomenal, and the cut back in distance first, off the layoff should benefit him. This field does not provide a standout past Ever So Lucky. ll Villano may be the next best shot. He ran a respectable race to Alpha who returned to the win the Withers Stakes last weekend. The cut back in distance may benefit him as well. ll Villano is quick; he will be pressing the pace if not on it. The rest of the field is taking a major step up in class. Thunder Moccasin will be the other major threat to Ever So Lucky. In his first and only start he beat a good group of maidens, this is a step up in class, that on Saturday he may find difficult. Dale Romans trains two entered in the race and I favor Tarpy’s Goal over Quick Wit. Tarpy’s Goal ran very well last time out and I expect him to be a factor. Selections

1. Ever So Lucky

2. ll Villano

3. Tarpy’s Goal



The Donn Handicap has the potential to be a key race for the rest of the year in the older division. The race starts with Preakness Winner Shackelford, who returns for the first time since his tenacious effort in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. Shackelford, aside from the Travers flop, shows up every time. His last try at 1 mile and 1/8 on the Gulfstream surface he got nailed at the wire in the Florida Derby. Shackelford will be on the pace, he will be fresh and I think he will run a big race first off the bench. I do not think he will win, but he is as gritty as they come and he will be in with a big shot at the eighth pole. Ruler on Ice also makes his first start since the Breeders Cup. Ruler on Ice ran a very credible race in the Classic picking up the pieces late to finish third. My problem with Ruler on Ice is that he always seems to pass tired horses to end up finishing in the money. I think against a field as talented as this Ruler On Ice may be up against it. The distance may actually be a little too short for the gelding whose biggest win came In the Belmont Stakes. Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount, and no one has been riding better than her, but even Rosie will not get Ruler on Ice to the winner’s circle Saturday. Next comes Flat Out. His turf experiment last time was an absolute disaster. The big question with Flat Out is can he duplicate his performances in New York to other tracks. I think Flat Out may even be better at one turn, something that has only been explored at Belmont. Hopefully he will be considered for races such as the Metropolitan Mile down the road. Until I see him run a credible race outside of New York, I cannot see Flat Out being a real factor in this race. The race turns to the Richard Dutrow Jr. pair Trickmeister and Redeemed, Trickmeister being the more highly touted of the two. Trickmeister has done nothing wrong in his short career, as he is easily undefeated, but soundness problems have caused him to run sparingly. He will see a tougher field Saturday than he has ever seen before, and we will learn a lot about Trickmeister very shortly. Redeemed is a solid racehorse but I am not sure if he is up to the task. He is consistent so he may be there. My selection in the Donn is Sangaree, which is a little bit of a reach. Sangaree has yet to break through at the highest level but I think Saturday is his day. His last race was very good, and his two turn race against Rule at Saratoga was really strong. I think with the perfect trip he could inherit the lead late. Mission Impazible is always a threat but he never seems to get there, the pace should be hot and he will be a part of that, and I expect him to fade late. The rest of the field includes Soaring Empire, who does not want two turns, Hymn Book who is a cut below this field, and Where’s Sterling who like Hymn Book, is up against it class wise.

Selections-

1. Sangaree

2. Shackelford

3. Trickmeister



The Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap is an evenly matched race, and it starts with Silver Medallion. Silver Medallion’s last two races were very impressive. He will be flying late, and should get pace to run at. The question regarding Silver Medallion is whether or not he is good enough to win this race, although he has been beating a few of these. One of the horses Silver Medallion has beaten twice in a row is Hollinger, Hollinger is consistent but does not find the winner circle often. He will need a very large effort to turn the tables on Silver Medallion. I do not see it happening. I believe Big Blue Kitten is a major player in this race. Big Blue Kitten’s only two losses were his debut, and his last start which was his first start off a layoff. In between those two races Big Blue Kitten was five for five including a grade 2 victory at Saratoga. His return to the races was encouraging, and I am looking for him to run a huge race Saturday. Yummy With Butter is a very solid grass horse, he will be on or near the lead, but I do not think he is good enough to win this race. Boisterous will receive a lot of play Saturday, and for good reason. Boisterous has won two graded races in a row, and could improve with the cut back in distance. He has tried grade 1 company before, and has been unsuccessful, but Saturday may be his day. Yankee Fortune is intriguing because this will be his third start off the layoff. His last race was good, Little Mike who defeated him came back to win. Yankee Fortune could be a serious player to finish in the money. Get Stormy is always good, aside from his Breeders Cup performances Get Stormy is always a contender. He almost won this race last year, and is proven at the distance. He should get a great trip either on the lead or sitting right off Yummy With Butter. I think he may need this race though but look to him to run very well for trainer Thomas Bush. Kindergarden Kid is a good horse but simply not good enough to win the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. Smart Bid is dangerous. Smart Bid will get a picture perfect trip. He will sit right off Get Stormy and Yummy With Butter and could inherit the lead late. Smart Bid was a nose away from winning this race last year and a fresh Smart Bid could produce big things Saturday. The last horse in the race is Al Khali who is a solid horse but I think he wants more distance. Making selections in this race was very difficult because all the horses are so even but here they are.



1. Big Blue Kitten

2. Smart Bid

3. Yankee Fortune

4. Get Stormy