Kentucky Derby Top 20 #6

The major preps have ended, and trainers are shipping their horses to Churchill Downs. After winning performances by Java's War in the Bluegrass Stakes, Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby the Kentucky Derby field has essentially taken shape. With under three weeks to go until the First Saturday in May, the Kentucky Derby Top 20 is almost stuck in cement.

Kentucky Derby Top 20
1. Verrazano- He will the morning line favorite, and deserves it.
2. Revolutionary- Whichever jockey rides him, they need to keep him out of trouble.
3. Orb- He is a magnificent looking colt, with the connections in his corner. A fast pace would aid him.
4. Normandy Invasion- Javier Castellano chose him, a decisive move. Is he good enough outside of Aqueduct?
5. Goldencents- He will be near the pace under Krigger, but if he gets dirt in his face, will he go on?
6. Overanalyze- Dominant in the Arkansas Derby, the field was suspect but he took care of business
7. It'smyluckyday- Flying under the radar, if he returns to Holy Bull form he is extremely dangerous
8. Oxbow- Another brutal trip in the Arkansas Derby, he is not one to throw out
9. Java's War- He ran phenomenally in the Bluegrass Stakes, but is he really as good on dirt
10. Palice Malice- He is doing a mini Triple Crown coming into the Kentucky Derby, but boy is he talented
11. Vyjack- He was sent to Fair Hill to recover, which is a bit of a concern, I have many questions, especially about distance.
12. Myute- Similar to Vyjack, there are distance questions, really no excuse for not winning the Louisiana Derby after hitting the lead.
13. Governor Charlie- Possibly the only horse for Baffert in the field, needs to step up
14. Will Take Charge- Rebel Stakes did not hold up particularly well, but liked the move to give him time coming into the Derby
15. Lines of Battle- Dirt is the question with him, and the UAE Derby was brutally slow
16. Frac Daddy- Connections were hard pressed to get him into the Kentucky Derby, and the performance in the Arkansas Derby was good enough to get him in, but he is not good enough.
17. Black Onyx- He moves down, because the Spiral form is struggling to hold up
18. Charming Kitten- Dirt is a major question, but it looks like he is getting in.
19. Falling Sky- His point will get him in the Derby, but he is just a pace factor
20. Departing- He would be in the top 15, but not sure he is going to get in.

Derby Top 20 #3

Following this week's Rebel Stakes,  there is minimal shake up in the Derby Top 20, the first and third finishers of the Rebel Stakes enter into the Derby top 20, but otherwise it is very similar.

Kentucky Derby Top 20
1. Verrazano- Heavily favored
2. Orb- Will not pick him in the Florida Derby, but he will be dangerous on the first saturday in May.
3. Flashback- Extremely talented, and will learn from previous start
4. Vyjack- Undefeated and talented
5. It'smyluckyday- Needs to prove his worth in Florida Derby
6. Hear the Ghost- Santa Anita Derby will be proving ground for him
7. Shanghai Bobby- He will win the Florida Derby, but he does not want 10 furlongs
8. Revolutionary- We will see how good he really is in Louisiana Derby
9. Oxbow- Yet to have a good trip, he is dangerous
10. Palice Malice- Son of Curlin should love the added distance
11. Will Take Charge
12. Normandy Invasion
13. Goldencents
14. Den's Legacy
15. Tiz a Minister
16. War Academy
17. Elnaawi
18. Speak Logistics
19. Mr. Palmer
20. Titletown Five

Derby Top 20 #2

There has been plenty of action around the country since the initial Kentucky Derby top 20 came out.  There will be plenty of changes in this week's edition, but there will be no change at number 1, Verrazano, at the moment is head and shoulders above the rest.  

Kentucky Derby Top 20

1. Verrazano- Tampa Bay Derby win confirmed that he is indeed a star, safely at number 1

2. Orb- Has the right style to win a Kentucky Derby, may not win Florida Derby, but he doesn't have to

3. Flashback- Tough trip in San Felipe, still near the top, but needs to rebound in SA Derby

4. Vyjack- Loved his Gotham win, but he will get tested in the Wood Memorial 

5. It'smyluckyday- Needs to validate Holy Bull win in the Florida Derby against a tough field

6. Hear the Ghost- Pace aided win in San Felipe, but certainly flourished at two turns

7. Shanghai Bobby- BC Juvenile proving to be weak, he needs to prove himself at a distance 

8. Revolutionary- Louisiana Derby next for the very talented Withers winner, needs to be tested

9. Super Ninety Nine- Not Sure he will be challenged at all in Rebel 

10. Palice Malice- This son of Curlin is improving in every start, and is forgotten at times 

11. Normandy Invasion

12. Goldencents 

13.  Oxbow

14. Tiz a Minister

15. Elnaawi 

16. Speak Logistics 

17. Delhomme 

18. Mr. Palmer 

19. Overanalyze 

20. Departing

Initial Derby Top 20 2-24-2013

Following the the Fountain of Youth and Risen Star Stakes it is time to unveil my Kentucky Derby Top 20. There have been plenty of twists and turns already, but with a shocking upset in yesterdays Risen Star and a heavy favorite going down in the Fountain of Youth, the Derby trail is in full swing. Here is my initial list.

Kentucky Derby Top 20
1. Verrazano- Very impressed with first two races, tries two turns in Tampa Bay Derby
2. Flashback- Yet to be tested, but based on Baffert's comments he is a freak
3. Orb- Loved his FOY win, he seems like a Derby horse, ran into wicked pace
4. It'smyluckyday- He has had two perfect trips but Holy Bull was good
5. Shanghai Bobby- He deserves a chance to rebound off last race, but needs a better run in Fla. Derby
6. Revolutionary- His win in the Withers was breathtaking, already battle tested
7. Super Ninety Nine- Tough to ignore his dominant win in Southwest, improved at two turns
8. Palice Malice- Impressed me the most in Risen Star, first start at two turns, he should improve
9. Goldencents- He has not done anything wrong, deserves to be in top 10
10. Overanalyze- Forgotten Pletcher horse, needs to make an impression in Gotham
11. Normandy Invasion
12. Vyjack
13. Speak Logistics
14.  Dynamic Sky
15. Falling Sky
16. Shakin It Up
17. Oxbow
18. Sunbean
19. Cerro
20. Tiz the Truth