141st Running of the Xpressbet.com Preakness Stakes- Analysis and Selections

The 141^ST Running of the Xpressbet.com Preakness Stakes

Pimlico Racecourse

Post Time: 6:45 PM ET

TV: NBC 5:00 -7:30 PM ET

May 21^ST 2016

The 141^st Preakness Stakes on Saturday is the second step in Nyquist’s quest to become the second consecutive Triple Crown champion. In the Kentucky Derby Nyquist was tremendous. He was part of a hot early pace and was able to hold off Exaggerator to win under jockey Mario Gutierrez. The Preakness this year features a field of eleven; three of them are coming out of the Kentucky Derby, and they are joined by eight new faces to the Triple Crown.

The top contenders in the race will be Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, Derby runner up and Santa Anita Derby winner Exaggerator, and the lightly raced but talented Stradivari.

Unlike the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness is loaded with speed; Uncle Lino, Nyquist, Awesome Speed, Collected Laoban, Abiding Star and Stradivari all posses early speed.

Nyquist is the best horse in the race and is going to be very hard to beat on Saturday. If he runs the same race he ran two weeks ago he will win. He is a 3-5 favorite for a reason: he is undefeated and certainly the most likely winner. While I expect Nyquist to win, I am stilling willing to take a bit of a shot against him.

The race really should set up well for Exaggerator. Not only should the pace benefit Exaggerator but also considerable rain is in the forecast, and this horse has excelled on sloppy tracks in the past. Exaggerator will have every chance to turn the tables on Nyquist Saturday and it will be interesting to see if he is capable. 

Stradivari is the unknown commodity in the Preakness. Stradivari comes into the race off of a dominating performance in an allowance race at Keeneland. The race was a MUCH easier field than the field that he will line up against Saturday, but he was extremely impressive. Stradivari will only be making his fourth lifetime start in the Preakness, and gives away a lot of experience to his rivals, but Stradiavri has a lot of upside.  Stradivari could possibly still be improving and I love that about him.

There are a few closers in the race who could benefit from a hot pace including Cherry Wine, Lani, and Fellowship. All three of these horses winning the race would be shocking, but they could all finish in the top four.

Below is the field for the 141^st running of the Preakness Stakes. My pace analysis and selections are below. Good luck!

#1 Cherry Wine Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Corey Lanerie Odds: 20-1

#2 Uncle Lino Trainer: Gary Sherlock Jockey: Fernando Perez Odds: 20-1

#3 Nyquist Trainer: Doug O’Neil Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Odds: 3-5

#4 Awesome Speed Trainer: Alan Goldberg Jockey: Jevian Toledo Odds: 30-1

#5 Exaggerator Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Odds: 3-1

#6 Lani Trainer: Mikio Matsunaga Jockey: Yutaka Take Odds: 30-1

#7 Collected Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Javier Castellano Odds: 10-1

#8 Laoban Trainer: Eric Guillot Jockey: Florent Geroux Odds: 30-1

#9 Abiding Star Trainer: Edward Allard Jockey: JD Acosta Odds: 30-1

#10 Fellowship Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Jose Lezcano 30-1

#11 Stradivari Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: John Velasquez 8-1

Early Speed

#2 Uncle Lino

#8 Laoban

#9 Abiding Star

Stalkers

#3 Nyquist

#4 Awesome Speed

#7 Collected

Mid Pack

#11 Stradivari

#10 Fellowship

Closers

#1 Cherry Wine

#5 Exaggerator

#6 Lani

Selections 

1.  #11 Stradivari (8-1)

2. #5 Exaggerator (3-1)

3. #3 Nyquist (3-5)

4. #6 Lani (30-1)

Kentucky Derby Top 20 #5

The last edition of the Kentucky Derby Top 20 was prior to the Louisiana Derby, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, and Santa Anita Derby. There is plenty of shake-up this week. With the impressive performances by Revolutionary, Orb, Verrazano, and Goldencents, and the unfortunate defections of Flashback and Hear the Ghost we are reminded of the roller coaster that is the Kentucky Derby trail.

Kentucky Derby Top 20

1. Verrazano- Re-watched his Wood Memorial performance, it was really good, he is the horse to beat. 

2. Revolutionary- I had him number 1 but Castellano jumping ship was a major factor and moved him down one. 

3. Orb- He was impressive in his Florida Derby win, but the race was slow. 

4. Normandy Invasion- He ran well in the Wood, he is going to be bet down on the first Saturday in May

5. Oxbow- I like this horse a lot, he always fires. A good effort in the Arkansas Derby bumps him up

6. Goldencents- Great performance in 9 furlong SA Derby, with 105 Beyer he is a danger, but 10 furlongs is a MAJOR question 

7. It'smyluckyday- Florida Derby was essentially a race off the layoff, so he may improve on Derby day, but I do not think he is good enough to win

8. Vyjack- He had every chance to get by Verrazano, distance is a question. 

9. Mylute- Had every chance to get by Revolutionary, distance a major question.

10. Will Take Charge- Yet to put two races together but coming into the Derby fresh may be to his benefit 

11. Governor Charlie- Moves up because he has the points, Sunland Derby field was weak

12. Java's War- Has every chance to move up with good effort in the Bluegrass 

13. Black Onyx- He is in, and he is consistent 

14. War Academy- Time for him to step up in Arkansas Derby 

15. Den's Legacy- Needs a big effort, to stay in the hunt in the Arkansas Derby 

16. Lines Of Battle- He is in the Derby for O'Brien, hopefully runs better than Daddy Long Legs

17. Uncaptured- Ran well off the layoff in the Spiral, may be favorite in Bluegrass

18. Overanalyze- Needs to rebound in a HUGE way in Arkansas Derby to stay on this list

19. Falling Sky- He has run well in every start this year, may be overmatched 

20. Departing- If he gets in, he is dangerous 

The Preakness Stakes

This Saturday's Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown includes four out of the first five finishers of the Kentucky Derby. The Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another headlines the race but the runner up Bodemeister will be the post time favorite. Went the Day Well fourth in the Derby will garner attention as will Creative Cause, and do not forget about the five newcomers in the years Preakness. I will do a horse-by-horse analysis followed by my selections at the bottom. A new feature in this blog will be "My odds" these are the odds I believe will be acceptable come post time. Happy Preakness!

PP Horse       M.L. Odds  My Odds

1 Tiger Walk  30-1            40-1- Tiger Walk is owned by Kevin Plank, who started Under Armour. Kevin Plank is a Maryland guy, his farm is in Maryland his horses are trained in Maryland and he himself went to the University of Maryland. Plank is great for racing in Maryland but I believe Tiger Walk is in this year’s Preakness to provide the Maryland boys a thrill, but not to pose a real threat in winning the race.  Tiger Walk has knocked on the door of hitting the board in New York graded stakes races this year but has not had that final gear to get him there, and I do not think it will be there on Saturday. Tiger Walk will make a late move but it will not be enough to hit the board. 

2. Teeth of the Dog 15-1   20-1- Teeth of the Dog is trained by Michael Matz and is his backup to the unlucky Union Rags. Teeth of the Dog comes off a decent third place effort in the Wood Memorial but the problem with the Wood Memorial, Gemologist the winner was 16th in the Kentucky Derby and Alpha the runner up was 12th. The Wood Memorial did not stack up against the best three year olds in the country two weeks ago, and I do not think Teeth of the Dog will change that on the third Saturday in May.  

3. Pretension 30-1       50-1- Pretension comes off a win in a the Canonero II stakes at Pimlico two weeks ago. In that race he defeated once highly regarded My Adonis. The problem I have with Pretension, in his start prior to the Canoreo II he was a non-factor in the Illinois Derby, the Preakness is a much tougher race than the Illinois Derby.  Pretension has little to no chance on Saturday. 

4. Zetterholm 20-1   15-1- Zetterholm is the most interesting "new shooter" having not raced in the Kentucky Derby; Zetterholm comes into the Preakness fresh. Zetterholm is taking a massive step up in class in the Preakness, after losing his debut he has reeled up three straight including a stakes win last time out. The problem is that stakes win was an overnight at Aqueduct for New York breds. This is a huge step up but Zetterholm is obviously talented, I look for him to be slightly overmatched but certainly he has a chance to be a factor. 

5. Went the Day Well 6-1  9-2- Describing Went the Day Well's Kentucky Derby trip in words is almost impossible. Went the Day Well should never have made a run, he was cut off early was way too far back, had trouble on the first turn and was as far back as he could be turning for home and yet he still rallied to finish fourth. Went the Day Well does not need to be far back, in fact he was fourth the whole way around before pouncing to the lead and winning the Vinery Racing Spiral. Went the Day Well will have no problem with the two-week turn around because of his light-seasoning prior. He has looked great at Fair Hill coming up to the race and is primed to run a monster race. 

6. Creative Cause 6-1  8-1- Creative Cause's trip in the Kentucky Derby might have been the only trip worse than Went the Day Well's and Union Rags. He ran further than any horse ran in the Derby and still managed to make a big run to finish fifth. I think the Derby took an immense amount of energy out of Creative Cause, and add the cross-country trip and back I think Creative Cause has undergone way too much to run his race on Saturday, 

7. Bodemeister 8-5  1-1- The race Bodemeister ran in the Kentucky Derby was impressive. He set torrid fractions was pressed the whole way and still managed to hold on for second. He ran the 5th fastest half-mile in the history of the Derby and still managed to hit the board, not to mention every horse around him became a non-factor in the stretch. Bodemeister will be tough to pass on Saturday. He comes into a race that does not have an abundance of speed unlike the Derby and will be doctored along by Mike Smith. Bodemeister has yet to bounce but this is his third race in five weeks, a extremely tough task for a lightly raced horse like Bodemeister. I think he will be very tough and will hit the board but I will try and beat him on Saturday.

8. Daddy Nose Best 12-1  20-1- I was quite high on Daddy Nose Best going into the Kentucky Derby but he proved in the Derby he was not good enough to win at this level. He ran an even race but never made a major run. I look for him to run a similar race on Saturday. I do think Daddy Nose Best is better than a significant amount of horse in this race and I believe he will finish in the upper half of this race but he will not be good enough to hit the board.

9. I'll Have Another- 5-2  2-1- I'll Have Another ran a perfect race in the Kentucky Derby, he had a perfect trip and Bodemeister faded just in time. I admire the race he ran and I admire Doug O' Neil for sending I'll Have Another to Baltimore so quickly after the Derby, but I think I'll Have Another's undefeated season and Triple Crown run will come to an end on Saturday. I'll Have Another runs well fresh; he won the Robert Lewis off a massive layoff, followed by the Santa Anita Derby off a long layoff. He had four weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby, but this time he only gets two. The brightside is he did not have a grueling campaign coming into the Triple Crown; the downside is he may not run well without any freshening. He really should get a perfect trip again right off the pace but I just do not see him finishing as well on Saturday, but hopefully he will prove me wrong so the Triple Crown run can continue. 

10. Optimizer 30-1  30-1- A lot like Daddy Nose Best, Optimizer ran a very average race in the Kentucky Derby, he finished right in the middle of the field and never made much of an impact and finished 11th. A believe Optimizer will not be much of a factor on Saturday because he is just not good enough to win the race. He may make a run for the coach D. Wayne Lukas but I am fairly confident he will not hit the board. 

11. Cozetti- 30-1  40-1- Cozetti ran a decent race in the Arkansas Derby, the problem was he was really far behind Bodemeister. Cozetti is improving and the gray son of Cozzene will be easy to spot in the field, but I simply believe he is Dale Romans replacement to Dullahan in this race. I do not think he is good enough to get a share of the pot. 

Selections

1. Went the Day Well

2. Bodemeister

3. I'll Have Another

4. Zetterholm