With the Kentucky Derby just 88 days away, the list of horses injured and off of the Triple Crown trail has begun to grow. Just last week Calculator (#8), Leave the Light On (#11), and the talented sprinter Barbados have been ruled out of Triple Crown contention because of various injuries.
In the Kentucky Derby prep races last week the lightly raced Ocean Knight remained undefeated in a gutsy victory in the Sam F. Davis (GIII) at Tampa Bay Downs and Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red (#1) made a strong return to the races finishing second in the 7F San Vicente Stakes (GII) to Lord Nelson at San Anita Park.
This coming week features two prep races both worth 10 points to the winner, the GIII Withers Stakes at Aqueduct and the GII Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita which features Dortmund and Firing Line. Read below to find out my Kentucky Derby Top 20 list.
#1. Texas Red- This big colt by Afleet Alex made his 2015 debut last week sprinting at Santa Anita in the GII San Vicente Stakes, and ended up a very impressive second. Although he did not win his performance off the layoff and not at his optimal distance only strengthened his resume as the #1 horse going forward.
#2. Imperia- The only development since last week regarding this colt is top jockey Mike Smith will climb aboard this colt in the GII Risen Star Stakes (2/21) at the Fair Grounds when Imperia makes his 2015 debut.
#3. Upstart- This Rick Violette trainee ran a monster Beyer Speed Figure number of 105 in his GII Holy Bull win, but he seems to have come out of the race well, and if he improves off that effort he is very dangerous down the road.
#4. Dortmund- This Bob Baffert trainee make his 2015 debut Saturday in the GII Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and coming off a narrow win at Los Alamitos, where many blamed the tight turns on the close margin of victory, it will be interesting to see how he fairs back at Santa Anita.
#5. American Pharaoh- Another colt trained by Bob Baffert, I have moved American Pharaoh to #5 because in the last week he has returned to the work tab. This could be the most talented colt of his generation, and if everything continues to go well, he will continue to rise.
#6. Frosted- I still believe Frosted is a colt, and he should grow with every start. In his last two starts there have still been signs of him being green, and with a more mature performance he could really put all the pieces together.
#7. Carpe Diem- This is a really nice colt that had a very tough time of it in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and he actually rallied to defeat Upstart in there. He should only improve with the distance, and a better trip.
#8. Prospect Park- Not even in the Top 20 last week, Prospect Park earned his way onto the list with a very impressive allowance score last week at Santa Anita. He defeated some promising colts and did it nicely, he is expected to try tougher company next time out.
#9. El Kabeir- He is the big name in this week's Withers Stakes (GIII) at Aqueduct and should be a pretty heavy favorite. He has matured significantly in his last two starts and it will be interesting if that upward trend continues on Saturday.
#10 Firing Line- He takes on Dortmund Saturday and with an a strong effort could find himself much higher on the list, but for now I want to see another strong effort like the one at Los Alamitos last out.
11. Ocean Knight
12. Competitive Edge
13. International Star
14. Lord Nelson
15. Daredevil
16. Divining Rod
17. Far Right
18. Tiznow R J
19. Ocho Ocho Ocho
20. J S Bach
Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby 141. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby 141. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 3, 2015
Monday, January 26, 2015
141st Kentucky Derby Top 20 List
With the Kentucky Derby 95 days away, and the prep races well under way, it is time for my first Kentucky Derby top 20 list. An impressive list of three year old colts are being point to the First Saturday in May, led by 2014 Breeders Cup Juvenile (GI) winner Texas Red, American Pharaoh the Eclipse Award champion, and Upstart a very impressive winner this past weekend, and the undefeated Dortmund. Read below to know my Top 20 horses for the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby.
1. Texas Red- Won the biggest race for 2yo's in 2014 in impressive fashion, love how he covers the ground. The way he dominated last out indicates he is a special colt.
2. Imperia- Fired a strong second in his first try on dirt in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stk (GII) at Churchill Downs. He really should only improve with added dirt experience, and is certainly bred well enough.
3. Upstart- Talented colt could not have been more impressive in saturday's Holy Bull (GII) at Gulfstream Park. He should only improve off that effort and will be extremely dangerous down the road.
4. Dortmund- This undefeated colt for trainer Bob Baffert has done nothing wrong to this point. I am just skeptical of the quality of the Los Alamitos Futurity, in which he needed everything he had to win.
5. Frosted- Stablemate of Imperia has strung together two solid second place finishes in graded company in his last two outings. I believe he is extremely talented and is capable against any of these.
6. American Pharaoh- The 2yo Eclipse Award champion is just getting underway after an injury knocked him out of the Breeders Cup. He would be much higher on this list if not for the injury.
7. Carpe Diem- This horse did not have an easy trip in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (GI) as one of the favorites. He has proven he is talented and this Grade 1 winner is still very much a contender.
8. Calculator- This colt broke his maiden in a stakes race last time out in the Sham Stakes (G3) impressively at Santa Anita. Prior to that he chased American Pharoah and Texas Red around but seemed matured and improved last time out against a relatively weak field.
9. El Kabeir- This John Terranova trainee has improved in his last two winning the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stk. as Churchill and followed that performance up by dominating a weak field in the GII Jerome at Aqueduct. Defeated #2 Imperia at Churchill, but believe it was biased aided.
10. Firing Line- Was just beaten by Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity (GI), and was arguably better. I do want to see him repeat that effort, but he could quickly rise up with a good effort.
11. Leave the Light On
12. Daredevil
13. International Star
14. Mr. Z
15. Far Right
16. Tiznow R J
17. Competitive Edge
18. J S Bach
19. Ocho Ocho Ocho
20. Bluegrass Singer
1. Texas Red- Won the biggest race for 2yo's in 2014 in impressive fashion, love how he covers the ground. The way he dominated last out indicates he is a special colt.
2. Imperia- Fired a strong second in his first try on dirt in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stk (GII) at Churchill Downs. He really should only improve with added dirt experience, and is certainly bred well enough.
3. Upstart- Talented colt could not have been more impressive in saturday's Holy Bull (GII) at Gulfstream Park. He should only improve off that effort and will be extremely dangerous down the road.
4. Dortmund- This undefeated colt for trainer Bob Baffert has done nothing wrong to this point. I am just skeptical of the quality of the Los Alamitos Futurity, in which he needed everything he had to win.
5. Frosted- Stablemate of Imperia has strung together two solid second place finishes in graded company in his last two outings. I believe he is extremely talented and is capable against any of these.
6. American Pharaoh- The 2yo Eclipse Award champion is just getting underway after an injury knocked him out of the Breeders Cup. He would be much higher on this list if not for the injury.
7. Carpe Diem- This horse did not have an easy trip in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (GI) as one of the favorites. He has proven he is talented and this Grade 1 winner is still very much a contender.
8. Calculator- This colt broke his maiden in a stakes race last time out in the Sham Stakes (G3) impressively at Santa Anita. Prior to that he chased American Pharoah and Texas Red around but seemed matured and improved last time out against a relatively weak field.
9. El Kabeir- This John Terranova trainee has improved in his last two winning the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stk. as Churchill and followed that performance up by dominating a weak field in the GII Jerome at Aqueduct. Defeated #2 Imperia at Churchill, but believe it was biased aided.
10. Firing Line- Was just beaten by Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity (GI), and was arguably better. I do want to see him repeat that effort, but he could quickly rise up with a good effort.
11. Leave the Light On
12. Daredevil
13. International Star
14. Mr. Z
15. Far Right
16. Tiznow R J
17. Competitive Edge
18. J S Bach
19. Ocho Ocho Ocho
20. Bluegrass Singer
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)