Weekend Stakes Races 8-4-12 and 8-5-12

          This is just one of many summer weekends that features Grade I racing coast to coast thanks to Del Mar and Saratoga. Del Mar host's the Grade I Clement L. Hirsch for fillies and mares on Saturday and the Grade II Best Pal Stakes for 2yo colts as well as two fillies on Sunday. Saratoga has a weekend full of top class racing. On Saturday three stakes races headline the card. The Whitney Invitational Handicap is the race of the weekend. $750,000 and a trip to the Breeders Cup World Thoroughbred Championships is on the line in this Grade 1 event. The card also features the Grade I Prioress Stakes for sprinting 3yo fillies, and the ungraded but very deep De La Rose Stakes. On Sunday the Grade I Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes is the feature, the race for older male sprinters is shaping up as a good one.  Last but not least Mountaineer Racetrack in West Virginia has its biggest day of the year on Saturday. Headlined by the West Virginia Derby, the entire card is made up of stakes races making for a wonderful day out there. Lastly the talented filly Stopshoppingmaria, who finished second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last November makes her seasonal debut in the first race at Saratoga on Saturday a race to certainly keep an eye on. My selections for the major races of the weekend are below.

Del Mar

Saturday

GI Clement L. Hirsch Stakes $300,000
1. Amani
2. Include Me Out
3. Switch


Sunday

GII Best Pal Stakes $150,000
1. Scherer Magic
2. Know More
3. Heir of Storm

Saratoga

GI Whitney Invitational Handicap $750,000 *Race of the Weekend

The Whitney is loaded with speed. Rule, Endorsement, Trickmeister, and Fort Larned are all horses who need to be on the lead, if not, right off it. The pace will likely be too hot for any of these four horses to hold on and hit the board. Rule is a solid horse and I look for him to put in a big effort. He may be the slowest of these four horses which may put him in a decent spot, but I do not think he is good enough.  Endorsement will not run as poorly as he did last time out in the Suburban. The issue for Endorsement is that he is inside of Trickmeister who will apply constant pressure. I look for these two horses to get in a speed duel early. Trickmeister is 1 for 1 at Saratoga, but this race reminds me a lot of the Donn Handicap and Trickmeister was just not good enough that day, I see a similar outcome on Saturday. Fort Larned has a developed into a very good racehorse, but not a Grade I racehorse, I think he will chase the pace, but in the end is simply not good enough to hit the board against these horses.
I believe the race sets up for a closer, this leaves Hunters Bay, Caixa Electronica,  Ron the Greek, Flat Out, and Hymm Book. Ron the Greek will be the post time favorite based off of his two Grade I wins this year. He has every opportunity in the Whitney to cement himself as the favorite for the Breeders Cup Classic, and Horse of the Year. I do not believe in Ron the Greek though. He got a perfect trip in the Stephen Foster last time out to nip Wise Dan by a nose. Although the pace scenario is in his favor again I am still not sold on Ron the Greek, so I will take a stand against him on Saturday. Hymm Book has been disappointing since his victory in the Donn Handicap. He has a similar closing kick to Ron the Greek, they both grind away late, neither possessing a devastating late closing kick. I liked his last race in the Suburban, He ran into Mucho Macho Man who demolished the field. I think he will enjoy the return to two turns, and hopefully the one turn race sharpened him up a bit. I look for Hymm Book to hit the board and out finish Ron the Greek, but I do not think Hymm Book is your winner. Flat Out returned off a layoff in the Monmouth Cup and his race was encouraging. He chased the pace came out late and could not run down Rule. He should improve in his second start off the layoff and he loves Saratoga which was proven by his two seconds here last year. I look for Flat Out to have first run on the horses running from deeper back in the field, but I think he will be second best. This leaves two big prices, Hunters Bay and Caixa Electronica. My selection is Hunters Bay. Hunters Bay has gotten good, he was won 4 out of his last 5 and comes into the Whitney off his first graded stakes score in the Dominion Day Handicap. Trained by Reade Baker, who is going to have a giant day (Tu Endie Wei) Hunters Bay to me provides the most upside in a race that has horses who are very similar. Hunters Bay faces a lot of adversity, he comes off a win on the Polytrack at Woodbine, now he comes to the dirt at Saratoga, and is running against the best horses he has ever faced. He is versatile and I look for him to sit a good trip in behind horses and get first run on the horses coming late. He is also a big price, which enhances the pick. I am taking a shot in here because I am not sold on the Older Male division and I am looking for a new player, and I believe Hunters Bay is that player.
Selections
1. Hunters Bay
2. Flat Out
3. Hymm Book

GI Prioress Stakes $300,000
1. Tu Endie Wei
2. Judy the Beauty
3. Jamaican Smoke

De La Rose Stakes $100,000
1. Julie's Love
2. Dealbata
3. Dancinginherdreams

Sunday

GI Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes $400,000
1. Hamazing Destiny
2. Shackleford
3. Emcee

Mountaineer

GII West Virginia Derby $750,000
1. Hansen
2. Penn's Grant
3. Le Bernadin

Stakes Races 6-28-2012

This weekend is headlined by graded stakes races at Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, Prairie Meadows, Hollywood Park, Monmouth Park, and a major stakes race at Charles Town.

Belmont Park

GII New York Stakes $200,000
1. Aruna
2. Banimpire
3. Hit it Rich

GII Dwyer Stakes $200,000
1. Unstoppable U
2. Teeth of the Dog
3. Fast Falcon

Betfair Hollywood Park $250,000

GI Triple Bend Handicap
1. Smiling Tiger
2. Comma to the Top
3. Mobilized

GI Shoemaker Mile Stakes $250,000
1. Mr. Commons
2. Jeranimo
3. Liberian Freighter

Prairie Meadows

GIII Iowa Oaks $200,000
1. Tapajo
2. Uptown Bertie
3. Ice Cream Silence

GIII Iowa Derby $200,000
1. Hansen
2. Truetap
3. Alsvid

GIII Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap $300,000
1. Succesful Dan
2. Awesome Gem
3. Headache

Churchill Downs

GIII Bashford Manor Stakes $100,000
1. Positively
2. Roman's Avenue
3. Special Jo

Monmouth Park

GIII Eatontown Handicap $100,000
1. Unbridled Humor
2. Vivo Per Lei
3. Ruthenia

Charles Town

Red Legend Stakes $400,000
1. Il Villano
2. Innocent Man
3. Flashy Dresser

Kentucky Derby Analysis (Horse by Horse)

The 138th running of the Kentucky Derby features morning line favorite Bodemeister, talented Union Rags, and the flashy Hansen. The Derby is always one of the hardest races of the year to predict, as the 20 three year olds cavalry charge makes traffic problems imminent. Here is a horse-by-horse analysis to hopefully improve your knowledge of every horse so that you can make a pick in this years Kentucky Derby! I ranked each horse in brackets of 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, and 16-20. At the very bottom are my final selections. 

PP  Horse Name        Odds

1. Daddy Long Legs (30-1)- Daddy Long Legs is trained by the legendary Irish trainer Aidan O' Brien, who sent the Irish horse across the pond to run in last Breeders Cup Juvenile. The race was a disaster; seeming like he never took to the dirt, Daddy Long Legs was never a factor. This year he was sent over to Dubai in his seasonal debut for the UAE Derby. This time over a synthetic surface similar to a grass racecourse Daddy Long Legs relished the ground winning the 2 million dollar race. In the Derby I will look past Daddy Long Legs due to his horrid post and dislike of the dirt surface. I will place him in my final quarter which is 16-20

2. Optimizer (50-1)- Optimizer is trained by four-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Optimizer is an inconsistent horse. Last year as a two year old he ran a very impressive second in the Breeders Futurity, but he followed that effort up with a dull performance in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. This year the pattern was similar as he ran an impressive second in the Rebel Stakes, only to follow it up with a dull 9th in the Arkansas Derby. I look for Optimizer to run better than that but I still consider him not good enough to get the job done. I will place him in the 11-15 bracket.

3. Take Charge Indy (15-1)- Take Charge Indy comes off an impressive gate to wire win in the Florida Derby defeating Union Rags. In what was only his second start of the year, Take Charge Indy took advantage of the speed bias and led all the way around the track holding off Reveron and Union Rags. Take Charge Indy benefits from a long time in between races as he showed between his seasonal bow and the Florida Derby. Calvin Borel stays aboard Take Charge Indy and because Calvin Borel is a three time Derby winner his odds will be shorter than what he should be. I believe he is peaking at the right time, but the speed bias that got him home at Gulfstream. In the Derby he will simply not be good enough to hit the board, I will put him in the 6-10 bracket.

4. Union Rags (9-2)- Union Rags is the second choice on the morning line and deservingly so. Trained by Micheal Matz of Barbaro fame, Unions Rags returned to the races this year with a smashing score in the Fountain of Youth but followed that performance up with a traffic filled dull third in the Florida Derby. Based on what he has shown in his workouts leading up to the Derby, Union Rags should be a main threat in the Derby. I love him, I think he will about 5-1 which is a great price for such a good horse. I think Union Rags certainly belongs in the 1-5 bracket.

5. Dullahan (8-1)- Dullahan comes off a win the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland last time out, but i was on a synthetic surface and the Kentucky Derby is on the dirt. Dullahan has two career wins, both Grade 1 wins on the Keeneland polytrack. His race on dirt in the Juvenile last year was just ok, as he finished fourth. He possesses a very strong closing kick and will be coming late, but I am willing to bet that his closing kick is not as powerful on dirt as it is on turf or synthetic. I am not a huge Dullahan fan and I have him in the 6-10 bracket.

6. Bodemeister (4-1)- Bodemeister is the morning line favorite coming off his dominating 9 length win in the Arkansas Derby. Trained by the red hot Bob Baffert, Bodemeister is the deserving favorite, but I see too many flaws in Bodemeister to pick him. In Bodemeister's last win in the Arkansas Derby, only two horses are coming back to run in the Kentucky Derby and both will be major longshots. I do not believe Bodemeister beat a whole lot in the Arkansas Derby. My second problem with Bodemeister is the pace scenario. Bodemeister will be part of a hot pace that will be contested by Trinniberg and Hansen. I am not convinced Bodemeister can handle this hot pace and I think the quality of the field and the pace will catch up to Bodemeister in the Derby I have him in a shock in the 11-15 bracket.

7. Rousing Sermon (50-1)- Rousing Sermon is coming off a solid third place finish in the Lousiana Derby, but the quality of the field in the Lousiana Derby is in question. Rousing Sermon ran on late to pass tired horses in the Lousiana Derby. I do not think he is good enough to be a true factor in the Kentucky Derby. He will be at the back and will make a run late but I don't think he will be good enough. I have him in the 16-20 bracket.

8. Creative Cause (12-1)- Creative Cause is the most consistent horse in the race. He has never been beaten more than a length and he has been competing at the highest level. Last time out in the Santa Anita Derby he lost to I'll Have Another (19) by just a nose. He ran extremely well at Churchill last year finishing third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Creative Cause will hit the board in the Derby, he always does. I think 12-1 presents great value and so I have Creative Cause in the 1-5 bracket.

9. Trinniberg (50-1)- Trinniberg comes into the Kentucky Derby off two fantastic wins, the problem is both of those wins come at the sprinters distance of 7 furlongs. The Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles or 10 furlongs. Trinniberg has never gone a route distance or gone two turns. Trinniberg is fast, for a sprinter, which means he will be very fast for the route distance. Trinniberg will be on the lead and could present a problem for horse likes Hansen and Bodemeister. Trinniberg will be on the lead for a long time but I believe the distance will catch up to him, so I have Trinniberg in the 16-20 bracket.

10. Daddy Nose Best (15-1)- Daddy Nose Best comes off two good wins. He took the El Camino Real Derby followed by a win on conventional dirt in the Sunland Park Derby. Daddy Nose Best has been training really well and presents a major threat coming from mid-pack and closing into the fast pace. He will be ridden by Garrett Gomez who rides best when the big moment presents itself. I think the quality of the Derby might be a little too much for him though, but I do think he will fire his best shot. I have him in the 6-10 bracket.

11. Alpha (15-1)- Alpha has done nothing wrong this year, he ran a very impressive second to Gemologist (15) in the Wood Memorial. My problem with Alpha was his dismal effort last year in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I know there were excuses but I don't think Alpha will prove to be good enough to hit the board. He will improve from last year, but the fact that Ramon Dominguez is riding Hansen (14) over him and his bumpy road to the Derby I will put him in the 6-10 bracket.

12. Prospective (30-1) Prospective comes off a dissapointing effort in the Bluegrass Stakes but prior he won the Tampa Bay Derby. The problem with Prospective is that he did not beat much in the Tampa Bay Derby, and when he has been placed in top compettion he has not been a factor. He ran a horrid race last year in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I believe Prospective will be a non-factor so I will place him in the 16-20 bracket.

13. Went the Day Well (20-1)- Went the Day Well shares the exact same connections as last years Kentucky Derby Winner, Animal Kingdom. Owned by Team Valor International, trained by Graham Motion, and ridden by John Velasquez Went the Day Well will be a major player in this years Kentucky Derby. Purchased by Barry Irwin after two races in England it did not take Went the Day Well long to make an impact in the United States. After a fourth in his U.S. debut, he won a maiden race and followed it up with a smashing victory in the Vinery Racing Spiral, the same race Animal Kingdom won prior to the Derby. Went the Day Well is improving and has already won on dirt something Animal Kingdom had not yet done. I think Went the Day Well is in a position to get a perfect trip in mid pack and could be right there at the end, so I will put Went the Day Well in the 1-5 bracket.

14. Hansen (12-1)- Hansen, last year's two year old champion has one win and two seconds this year. After a loss in his seasonal debut, he rebounded with an impressive win in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct which he followed up with a second to Dullahan in the Bluegrass. Hansen is a free running colt who will be part of the pace early on. I do not think Hansen wants a mile and a quarter, the pace will be too hot with the likes of Trinniberg and Bodemeister for Hansen to stretch his speed to this distance. I think Hansen will be overbet and will end up being a non-factor so I will put him in the 11-15 bracket. 

15. Gemologist (6-1)- Gemologist is an undefeated 5 for 5. His body of work includes being undefeated at Churchill Downs and a Grade 1 win last time out in the Wood Memorial. He was only started twice this year and figures to improve again. He got a stern test last time out when Alpha tested him in mid stretch. Gemologist responded to win the Wood. Gemologist should get a really good trip sitting outside of the main speed as well as being able to see Union Rags to his inside. Gemologist's connections are the lethal combination of Javier Castellano and Todd Pletcher, which only help his cause. Gemologist’s records lands him in the 1-5 bracket. 

16. El Padrino (20-1)- El Padrino had all the hype following his gutsy Risen Star victory on the heels of his solid allowance score, but that was followed up by a dull effort in the Florida Derby. The Florida Derby fourth place effort cannot be ignored, but I still think El Padrino offers a lot of upside.  El Padrino is tough as he showed when he prevailed in the Risen Star stretch duel. He is the "Other Pletcher" which is always dangerous because Gemologist will get most of the play and El Padrino could be in a position to make a splash. I think he is a major factor and he is in the 1-5 bracket. 

17. Done Talking (50-1)- Done Talking comes off an upset win in the Illinois Derby, but he will still not gain a lot of respect as his morning line shows. He will be coming from behind like he did in the Illinois Derby. His dissapointing effort in the Gotham does not reflect on this horse who ran a very good fourth in the Remsen in his last start as a two year old. Done Talking will make a run late but I think it will be too little too late and he will finish in the 11-15 bracket. 

18. Sabercat (30-1)- Sabercat improved off his lackluster seasonal debut in the Arkansas Derby running a decent third. Sabercat won the Delta Jackpot in his two year old finale, a race that really played into his hand. I do not see him being enough of a factor to hit the board because of the quality of this race in which he might find himself over his head. I think Sabercat fits in the 11-15 bracket. 

19. I'll Have Another (12-1)- I'll Have Another has had a perfect year and has run only one bad race in his career. I'll Have Another has run well fresh in both of his starts this year, and comes into this race off only a four week rest. I'll Have Another ran a gutsy race to get up and win the Santa Anita Derby by a nose. The horse has clearly improved around two turns but I do not think he will be enough of a factor Saturday. I'll Have Another's post position does not set up well for him. I do not think he wants to drop to the back or be rushed to the front leaving him in a place where he could get caught very wide. He is a talented colt but I do not think the Derby will be his day so I will put him in the 6-10 bracket. 

20. Liaison (50-1)- Liaison has had a lackluster year. After losing his rider in the first race of the year he has continued to perform poorly in his next starts. His performance could be attributed to the Santa Anita dirt, which he did not seem to like. Liaison is scary because if he takes to the Churchill dirt he could be a factor, but based on his current form I do not think Liason will be. Liason will finish in the 16-20 bracket. 

Selections for the Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) $2,000,000

1. Union Rags

2. Went the Day Well

3. Gemologist

Creative Cause and El Padrino will not be far behind either. 

1-5 In Alphabetical Order

1. Creative Cause

2. El Padrino

3. Gemologist

4. Union Rags

5. Went the Day Well

6-10 

6. Alpha 

7. Daddy Nose Best 

8. Dullahan 

9. I'll Have Another

10. Take Charge Indy 

11-15 

11. Bodemeister

12. Done Talking

13. Hansen 

14. Optimizier

15. Sabercat

16-20

16. Daddy Long Legs 

17. Liason

18. Prospective

19. Rousing Sermon 

20. Trinniberg 

New Derby Top 20 Final List 4/26/12

1. Gemologist- This horse knows how to win, should get a great trip
2. Bodemeister- Addition of Trinniberg does not help him but he might just be the best horse
3. Daddy Nose Best- Derby is a step up but do not overlook him
4. Union Rags- He needs to run faster than he has to win the Derby and he also seems to get himself in trouble
5. Creative Cause- I am not sure why they are so reluctant for him to wear blinkers
6. I'll Have Another- He runs well fresh, but he ran big in the Santa Anita Derby and only gets a month
7. Alpha- Was never going to get by Gemologist, might be overlooked though
8. Dullahan- I am not confident in his dirt ability but I am in his 1 1/4 abiliy.
9. Went the Day Well- His dirt win was good at Gulfstream needs to step up
10. Take Charge Indy- Will need to sit right off the lead, might not be good enough
11. El Padrino- I look for him to rebound in the Derby might not be good enough to win though
12. Sabercat- Third off the layoff needs to get significantly better though
13. Hansen- I do not think he is capable of 1 1/4 and there is a lot of speed
14. Mark Valeski- Lost shoe in Louisiana Derby, needs to be better though
15. Done Talking- There is a lot of speed and he will be running late, just saying
16. Daddy Long Legs- He was never a factor in the Juvenile back on the Churchill Dirt
17. Liason- Might like the Churchill Dirt and in that case he becomes a factor but he has been bad
18. Rousing Sermon- He needs to step up will also be running late
19. Trinniberg- Will be on the gas early never been two turns won't be there at the end
20. Prospective- No Way

Weekend Selections 4/14/12

This weekend features huge race cards from Keeneland, Oaklawn, and Charles Town.

Keeneland
The Vinery Madison (Thursday)
1. Sugarinthemorning
2. Musical Romace
3. Groupie Doll
The Vinery Madison is a phenomenal Grade 1 on Thursday at Keeneland, I love Sugarinthemorning, she is extremely consistent, and very versatile, Musical Romance will fire but I do not think she will get there today.

Maker's 46 Mile (Friday)
1. Get Stormy
2. Big Blue Kitten
3. Turallure

The Maker's 46 mile is another great race on friday at Keeneland, I think Get Stormy could get an easy lead and repeat in this race, I think Turallure will need this race, but watch out next time.

Keeneland Saturday

The Jenny Wiley
1. Aruna
2. Zagora
3. Tapitsfly

Aruna has been plauged by some awful trips in the Diana and the Breeders Cup with a good trip I think she will have Zagora's number who has been firing lately, the race is between these two in my mind but Tapitsfly is always dangerous if she fires.

The Commonwealth

1. Right One
2. Comedero
3. Bergerac

Right One is the class of the race, polytrack is the question but I believe he will take to it, Comedero is as good of an Arkansas bred as I have seen and he should run his race on Saturday.

The Shakertown
1. Havelock
2. Chamberlin Bridge
3. Great Attack

I love Havelock in this race, he likes Keeneland, and needed that race in Tampa, Chambelin Bridge will be right there but seems to have lost a step, Great Attack will be on the gas early on and we will see if he can hold on.

The Bluegrass Stakes
1. Howe Great
2. Hansen
3. Holy Candy

I love Howe Great here, I think he will get a perfect trip right off Hansen and may be able to run him down, he is so consistent I really think he has a chance to win, Holy Candy has a masssive amount of talent watch out for him.


Oaklawn
The Apple Blossom
1. Absinthe Minded
2. Plum Pretty
3. Tiz Miz Sue
I think Plum Pretty is vulnerable first back in a grade 1, I think Absinthe Minded will rebound today and get first grade 1 today.

The Count Fleet
1. Hamazing Destiny
2. Izzy Rules
3. Apriority
I keep waiting for Hamazing Destiny to break through I like him though because Izzy Rules and Apriority will garner most of the attention he might be overlooked a good time for him to get the job done.

The Oaklawn Handicap
1.Alternation
2. Win Willy
3. Ron the Greek
I like Alternation because he has showed an afinity for Oaklawn, his last race was really impressive, he is versatile showing he can be on or off the lead. Win Willy is the darkhorse he needed that race but absolutley loves Oaklawn so I think he could rebound tomorrow.

The Arkansas Derby
1. Stat
2. Secret Circle
3. Bodemeister

Todd Pletcher is on fire and I think Stat will break through in the Arkansas Derby and I think the Arkansas three year olds are not necessarily the strongest group and a newcomer like Stat is the play.

 The Charles Town Classic
1. Uh Oh Bango
2. Duke Of Mischeif
3. Pants On Fire

I love Uh Oh Bango here, I do not think there is one standout in this race and he is very consistent I think he will get an ok trip. Duke of Mischief has been succesful at Charles Town and I think that is a key attribute for a horse in this race, but I do not love his form so I think the race goes to Uh Oh Bango.

Derby Top 20 4/10/12

Derby Top 20
1. Gemologist- I loved how hard he fought in the Wood, loves Churchill
2. Creative Cause- Santa Anita Derby was discouraging
3. Daddy Nose Best- Work was good, under rated, will be a nice price on Derby Day
4. Union Rags- I keep waiting for him to step up on the big day
5. Hansen- Bluegrass is a really tough race, track is playing to speed though
6. I'll Have Another- I am thinking bounce in the Derby
7. Bodemeister- needs to win Arkansas Derby to get in Derby, he very well could though
8. Went the Day Well- graded earnings are all of the sudden an issue, but he should get in.
9. Alpha- Was never going to get by Gemologist but his race was very impressive
10. Take Charge Indy- He should get good trip in Derby, may not be good enough
11. Dullahan- Bluegrass will be a good test on how good he is, but dirt is question
12. Secret Circle- He has the earnings whether Arkansas derby goes well or not
13.Mark Valeski- I hope he gets in he is a good racehorse
14. Daddy Long Legs- I don't get it his BC Juvenile was awful
15. Prospective- He has not done anything wrong yet this year
16. Howe Great- needs graded earnings and Bluegrass is tough, but he is a winner
17. Wrote- He has the graded earnings as well O'Brien wants a derby but I dont think this is the horse
18. Liason- The horse does not want dirt, get over it, but he has the earnings
19. Sabercat- Needs a huge step up in Arkansas Derby, if not Derby should not be next step
20. Done Talking- I thought Illinois Derby was good, his Remsen was good, he can run.

Sidenote- El Padrino is a ton of trouble, I don't think he can get in, and Trinniberg is more likely for Preakness although he has enough Graded earnings.

Derby Top 20

There is quite the shakeup in this week's Derby top 20, following major preps there are new horses cracking the top 10 and top 20.

1. Creative Cause- Number 1 because everyone else is falling off, but he is very good.
2. Daddy Nose Best- Love this horse very consistent, seems like he will love Derby Distance
3. Union Rags- He will bounce back but how good is he really?
4. Hansen- Bluegrass is a good choice I think same pattern as Juvenile
5. Gemologist- Yet to lose, Wood Memorial is good test
6. Bodemeister- next race is crucial
7. I'll Have Another- Santa Anita Derby will be a deciding point on this colt
8. Went the Day Well- I loved his spiral effort
9. Take Charge Indy- I liked his Florida Derby but I am not convinced, everything went his way
10. Dullahan- I am not convinced on his dirt ability
11. Howe Great- Very consistent, yet to run a bad race, Bluegrass is next
12. Mark Valeski- We will see I think he is tough, threw a shoe might surprise people on Derby Day
13. Liason- Derby might be a race that suits him, needs to show more though
14. El Padrino- Pretty dissapointed in his Florida Derby effort he hs the ability to bounce back though
15. Secret Circle- The distance keeps getting longer but he keeps winning
16. Alpha- I am really not a fan after watching his replays has not beaten a soul
17. My Adonis- Has fired every time except Delta Jackpot should run well in Wood
18. The Lumber Guy- I really like this horse watch out for him in Wood, he will be my selection
19. Prospective- Very consistent needs to get better
20. Holy Candy- His maiden win was great but he is playing catch up

Daddy Long Legs and Wrote are both being pointed to Derby but I do not get it, Daddy Long Legs hated the dirt in the the Breeders Cup I do not know what would change now, just because he is by Scat Daddy does not mean he will suddenly love dirt.

Derby Top 20 3/14/12

1. Union Rags-Still number 1
2. Creative Cause- San Felipe was really good, top two are distancing themselves from the rest
3. Hansen- Gotham was good 10 furlongs is my question
4. Alpha- In the Florida Derby, he will run into El Padrino and Unions Rags, good test
5. El Padrino- Will run in the Florida Derby next, will be a good test
6.Bodemeister- Will just get better and better
7. I'll Have Another- Robert Lewis form is questionable
8. Gemologist- Makes first start this week
9. Mark Valeski- not getting very much respect for his risen star effort
10. Howe Great- Still not getting deerved respect has done nothing wrong.
11. Dullahan- His return was really good, should love the 10 furlongs
12. Secret Circle- Southwest was good, did not seem to being getting tired late
13. Sabercat- I am excited to see his rebel
14. Liason- San Felipe was not bad will love the Derby Distance
15. News Pending- Fountain of Youth was good
16. My Adonis- Runs solid every time
17- Went the Day Well- Improved in last start needs to improve again, Illinois Derby next?
18. - Prospective- Tampa Bay Derby was good, will get much needed class test next
19. Scatman- We will see how far he wants to go
20. Castaway- Will learn a  lot in the rebel

Derby Top 20 2/29/12

1. Union Rags- Fountain of Youth could not have been better, clearly number 1
2. Creative Cause- Should Improve with distance
3. Fed Biz- Will get major class test
4. Out Of Bounds- Will only get better
5. Alpha- Florida Derby or Wodd Memorial next?
6. Battle Hardened- Will only improve, and is not getting a lot of respect
7. I'll Have Another- Runs well fresh, waiting for Santa Anita Derby
8. El Padrino- Risen Star was good, but not great
9. Hansen- Gotham will be a big test
10. Gemologist- Major drop, needs a start soon
11. Secret Circle- Rebel was good, very good
12. Mark Valeski- Improved in Risen Star, clearly wants two turns
13. Howe Great- still under the radar, very versatile
14. Empire Way- Time for him to run a big race
15.  Take Charge Indy- Still a factor
16. Sabercat- He has gotten to work, first race back will be important
17. Castaway- Won slower rebel
18. Dullahan- Palm Beach will be his return
19. Liason- Needs to show more next time
20. Scatman- Ran really well in Rebel

On the bubble- Bodemeister, Rousing Sermon, Ever So Lucky
The Gotham will provide a lot of information especially regarding Hansen as well as some new comers.

Derby Top 20

1. Union Rags (Will learn a lot this weekend, he does not need to win but he needs to run really well)
2. Algorithms (Moves up with Creative Cause loss and strong work)
3. Fed Biz (Great allowance win)
4. Creative Cause (Was slightly discouraged by third place finish)
5. Battle Hardened (Sam Davis was weak but he will improve)
6. Gemologist (Loves Churchill needs to run soon though)
7. Out of Bounds (Will be part of loaded San Felipe)
8. Discreet Dancer (Work was good might be over his head this weekend)
9. Alpha (Waiting for Wood is a good move, he is on a roll)
10. I'll Have Another (Good Lewis win waiting till Santa Anita Derby, runs well fresh)
11. El Padrino (Heads Risen Star we will see how good he is)
12. Hansen (Gotham is a very important race for 2yo champion)
13. Howe Great (Under the Radar)
14.  Take Charge Indy (Will be factor in Fountain of Youth)
15. Empire Way (Improving  in every start)
16. Secret Circle (Southwest was very good, showed grit)
17. Ever So Lucky (I need to see something big from him next time out)
18. Castaway (Won slower version of Southwest but blew field away)
19. Dullahan (Will return soon, I have questions)
20. Shared Property (Ran the best race in Lecomte)

Derby top 15 2/14/12

This is the new Derby Top 15 Fed Biz enters the top 15 and goes all the way to three, his allowance win was very good, watch out for Fed Biz. Ever So Lucky drops out of the top 15 after not running in the Hutchenson, I am not sure he wants two turns.
1. Union Rags (Castellano opted for Algorithms still not worried)
2. Creative Cause (Nearing return )
3. Fed Biz (Allowance Win was impressive) *New*
4. Algorithms (The more iI think about him the more I like him, and Castellano chose to ride him in the Foutain of Youth over Union Rags)
5. Battle Hardened (Loved his win at Tampa, should improve)
6. Gemologist (Loves Churchill)
7. Discreet Dancer (Talent loaded two turns is the next question)
8. Out of Bounds  (I initially loved his last race but now I want to see one more)
9. Alpha (has not run against anything but has been impressive)
10. I'll have Another (Robert Lewis was very impressive)
11. El Padrino (Good allowancewin could act as springboard for bigger and better things)
12. Hansen (Gotham next, a crucial race)
13. Howe Great (Very versatile, know one is taking about him, watch out)
14. Take Charge Indy (bred to be a star likely to improve)
15. Empire Way (also bred to be a strar seems to be improving with every start)

***I am not a Dullahan fan, I think he passed tired horses in the Juvenile, he is good on synthetic but not nearly good enough on dirt.