This Saturday's Preakness Stakes, the second leg of
the Triple Crown includes four out of the first five finishers of the Kentucky
Derby. The Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another headlines the race but the
runner up Bodemeister will be the post time favorite. Went the Day Well fourth
in the Derby will garner attention as will Creative Cause, and do not forget
about the five newcomers in the years Preakness. I will do a horse-by-horse analysis
followed by my selections at the bottom. A new feature in this blog will be
"My odds" these are the odds I believe will be acceptable come post
time. Happy Preakness!
PP Horse M.L. Odds My
Odds
1 Tiger Walk 30-1
40-1- Tiger Walk is owned by Kevin Plank, who started Under
Armour. Kevin Plank is a Maryland guy, his farm is in Maryland his horses are
trained in Maryland and he himself went to the University of Maryland. Plank is
great for racing in Maryland but I believe Tiger Walk is in this year’s
Preakness to provide the Maryland boys a thrill, but not to pose a real threat
in winning the race. Tiger Walk has knocked on the door of hitting the
board in New York graded stakes races this year but has not had that final gear
to get him there, and I do not think it will be there on Saturday. Tiger Walk
will make a late move but it will not be enough to hit the board.
2. Teeth of the Dog 15-1 20-1- Teeth of the
Dog is trained by Michael Matz and is his backup to the unlucky Union Rags.
Teeth of the Dog comes off a decent third place effort in the Wood Memorial but
the problem with the Wood Memorial, Gemologist the winner was 16th in the
Kentucky Derby and Alpha the runner up was 12th. The Wood Memorial did not
stack up against the best three year olds in the country two weeks ago, and I
do not think Teeth of the Dog will change that on the third Saturday in May.
3. Pretension 30-1 50-1-
Pretension comes off a win in a the Canonero II stakes at Pimlico two weeks
ago. In that race he defeated once highly regarded My Adonis. The problem I
have with Pretension, in his start prior to the Canoreo II he was a non-factor
in the Illinois Derby, the Preakness is a much tougher race than the Illinois
Derby. Pretension has little to no chance on Saturday.
4. Zetterholm 20-1 15-1- Zetterholm is the
most interesting "new shooter" having not raced in the Kentucky Derby;
Zetterholm comes into the Preakness fresh. Zetterholm is taking a massive step
up in class in the Preakness, after losing his debut he has reeled up three
straight including a stakes win last time out. The problem is that stakes win
was an overnight at Aqueduct for New York breds. This is a huge step up but
Zetterholm is obviously talented, I look for him to be slightly overmatched but
certainly he has a chance to be a factor.
5. Went the Day Well 6-1 9-2- Describing Went
the Day Well's Kentucky Derby trip in words is almost impossible. Went the Day
Well should never have made a run, he was cut off early was way too far back,
had trouble on the first turn and was as far back as he could be turning for
home and yet he still rallied to finish fourth. Went the Day Well does not need
to be far back, in fact he was fourth the whole way around before pouncing to
the lead and winning the Vinery Racing Spiral. Went the Day Well will have no problem
with the two-week turn around because of his light-seasoning prior. He has
looked great at Fair Hill coming up to the race and is primed to run a monster
race.
6. Creative Cause 6-1 8-1- Creative Cause's
trip in the Kentucky Derby might have been the only trip worse than Went the
Day Well's and Union Rags. He ran further than any horse ran in the Derby and
still managed to make a big run to finish fifth. I think the Derby took an
immense amount of energy out of Creative Cause, and add the cross-country trip
and back I think Creative Cause has undergone way too much to run his race on Saturday,
7. Bodemeister 8-5 1-1- The race Bodemeister
ran in the Kentucky Derby was impressive. He set torrid fractions was pressed
the whole way and still managed to hold on for second. He ran the 5th fastest half-mile
in the history of the Derby and still managed to hit the board, not to mention
every horse around him became a non-factor in the stretch. Bodemeister will be
tough to pass on Saturday. He comes into a race that does not have an abundance
of speed unlike the Derby and will be doctored along by Mike Smith. Bodemeister
has yet to bounce but this is his third race in five weeks, a extremely tough
task for a lightly raced horse like Bodemeister. I think he will be very tough
and will hit the board but I will try and beat him on Saturday.
8. Daddy Nose Best 12-1 20-1- I was quite
high on Daddy Nose Best going into the Kentucky Derby but he proved in the
Derby he was not good enough to win at this level. He ran an even race but
never made a major run. I look for him to run a similar race on Saturday. I do
think Daddy Nose Best is better than a significant amount of horse in this race
and I believe he will finish in the upper half of this race but he will not be
good enough to hit the board.
9. I'll Have Another- 5-2 2-1- I'll Have
Another ran a perfect race in the Kentucky Derby, he had a perfect trip and
Bodemeister faded just in time. I admire the race he ran and I admire Doug O'
Neil for sending I'll Have Another to Baltimore so quickly after the Derby, but
I think I'll Have Another's undefeated season and Triple Crown run will come to
an end on Saturday. I'll Have Another runs well fresh; he won the Robert Lewis
off a massive layoff, followed by the Santa Anita Derby off a long layoff. He
had four weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby, but this time he only gets two. The
brightside is he did not have a grueling campaign coming into the Triple Crown;
the downside is he may not run well without any freshening. He really should
get a perfect trip again right off the pace but I just do not see him finishing
as well on Saturday, but hopefully he will prove me wrong so the Triple Crown
run can continue.
10. Optimizer 30-1 30-1- A lot like Daddy
Nose Best, Optimizer ran a very average race in the Kentucky Derby, he finished
right in the middle of the field and never made much of an impact and finished
11th. A believe Optimizer will not be much of a factor on Saturday because he
is just not good enough to win the race. He may make a run for the coach D.
Wayne Lukas but I am fairly confident he will not hit the board.
11. Cozetti- 30-1 40-1- Cozetti ran a decent
race in the Arkansas Derby, the problem was he was really far behind
Bodemeister. Cozetti is improving and the gray son of Cozzene will be easy to
spot in the field, but I simply believe he is Dale Romans replacement to
Dullahan in this race. I do not think he is good enough to get a share of the
pot.
Selections
1. Went the Day Well
2. Bodemeister
3. I'll Have Another
4. Zetterholm
