Kentucky Derby Analysis (Horse by Horse)

The 138th running of the Kentucky Derby features morning line favorite Bodemeister, talented Union Rags, and the flashy Hansen. The Derby is always one of the hardest races of the year to predict, as the 20 three year olds cavalry charge makes traffic problems imminent. Here is a horse-by-horse analysis to hopefully improve your knowledge of every horse so that you can make a pick in this years Kentucky Derby! I ranked each horse in brackets of 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, and 16-20. At the very bottom are my final selections. 

PP  Horse Name        Odds

1. Daddy Long Legs (30-1)- Daddy Long Legs is trained by the legendary Irish trainer Aidan O' Brien, who sent the Irish horse across the pond to run in last Breeders Cup Juvenile. The race was a disaster; seeming like he never took to the dirt, Daddy Long Legs was never a factor. This year he was sent over to Dubai in his seasonal debut for the UAE Derby. This time over a synthetic surface similar to a grass racecourse Daddy Long Legs relished the ground winning the 2 million dollar race. In the Derby I will look past Daddy Long Legs due to his horrid post and dislike of the dirt surface. I will place him in my final quarter which is 16-20

2. Optimizer (50-1)- Optimizer is trained by four-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Optimizer is an inconsistent horse. Last year as a two year old he ran a very impressive second in the Breeders Futurity, but he followed that effort up with a dull performance in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. This year the pattern was similar as he ran an impressive second in the Rebel Stakes, only to follow it up with a dull 9th in the Arkansas Derby. I look for Optimizer to run better than that but I still consider him not good enough to get the job done. I will place him in the 11-15 bracket.

3. Take Charge Indy (15-1)- Take Charge Indy comes off an impressive gate to wire win in the Florida Derby defeating Union Rags. In what was only his second start of the year, Take Charge Indy took advantage of the speed bias and led all the way around the track holding off Reveron and Union Rags. Take Charge Indy benefits from a long time in between races as he showed between his seasonal bow and the Florida Derby. Calvin Borel stays aboard Take Charge Indy and because Calvin Borel is a three time Derby winner his odds will be shorter than what he should be. I believe he is peaking at the right time, but the speed bias that got him home at Gulfstream. In the Derby he will simply not be good enough to hit the board, I will put him in the 6-10 bracket.

4. Union Rags (9-2)- Union Rags is the second choice on the morning line and deservingly so. Trained by Micheal Matz of Barbaro fame, Unions Rags returned to the races this year with a smashing score in the Fountain of Youth but followed that performance up with a traffic filled dull third in the Florida Derby. Based on what he has shown in his workouts leading up to the Derby, Union Rags should be a main threat in the Derby. I love him, I think he will about 5-1 which is a great price for such a good horse. I think Union Rags certainly belongs in the 1-5 bracket.

5. Dullahan (8-1)- Dullahan comes off a win the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland last time out, but i was on a synthetic surface and the Kentucky Derby is on the dirt. Dullahan has two career wins, both Grade 1 wins on the Keeneland polytrack. His race on dirt in the Juvenile last year was just ok, as he finished fourth. He possesses a very strong closing kick and will be coming late, but I am willing to bet that his closing kick is not as powerful on dirt as it is on turf or synthetic. I am not a huge Dullahan fan and I have him in the 6-10 bracket.

6. Bodemeister (4-1)- Bodemeister is the morning line favorite coming off his dominating 9 length win in the Arkansas Derby. Trained by the red hot Bob Baffert, Bodemeister is the deserving favorite, but I see too many flaws in Bodemeister to pick him. In Bodemeister's last win in the Arkansas Derby, only two horses are coming back to run in the Kentucky Derby and both will be major longshots. I do not believe Bodemeister beat a whole lot in the Arkansas Derby. My second problem with Bodemeister is the pace scenario. Bodemeister will be part of a hot pace that will be contested by Trinniberg and Hansen. I am not convinced Bodemeister can handle this hot pace and I think the quality of the field and the pace will catch up to Bodemeister in the Derby I have him in a shock in the 11-15 bracket.

7. Rousing Sermon (50-1)- Rousing Sermon is coming off a solid third place finish in the Lousiana Derby, but the quality of the field in the Lousiana Derby is in question. Rousing Sermon ran on late to pass tired horses in the Lousiana Derby. I do not think he is good enough to be a true factor in the Kentucky Derby. He will be at the back and will make a run late but I don't think he will be good enough. I have him in the 16-20 bracket.

8. Creative Cause (12-1)- Creative Cause is the most consistent horse in the race. He has never been beaten more than a length and he has been competing at the highest level. Last time out in the Santa Anita Derby he lost to I'll Have Another (19) by just a nose. He ran extremely well at Churchill last year finishing third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Creative Cause will hit the board in the Derby, he always does. I think 12-1 presents great value and so I have Creative Cause in the 1-5 bracket.

9. Trinniberg (50-1)- Trinniberg comes into the Kentucky Derby off two fantastic wins, the problem is both of those wins come at the sprinters distance of 7 furlongs. The Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles or 10 furlongs. Trinniberg has never gone a route distance or gone two turns. Trinniberg is fast, for a sprinter, which means he will be very fast for the route distance. Trinniberg will be on the lead and could present a problem for horse likes Hansen and Bodemeister. Trinniberg will be on the lead for a long time but I believe the distance will catch up to him, so I have Trinniberg in the 16-20 bracket.

10. Daddy Nose Best (15-1)- Daddy Nose Best comes off two good wins. He took the El Camino Real Derby followed by a win on conventional dirt in the Sunland Park Derby. Daddy Nose Best has been training really well and presents a major threat coming from mid-pack and closing into the fast pace. He will be ridden by Garrett Gomez who rides best when the big moment presents itself. I think the quality of the Derby might be a little too much for him though, but I do think he will fire his best shot. I have him in the 6-10 bracket.

11. Alpha (15-1)- Alpha has done nothing wrong this year, he ran a very impressive second to Gemologist (15) in the Wood Memorial. My problem with Alpha was his dismal effort last year in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I know there were excuses but I don't think Alpha will prove to be good enough to hit the board. He will improve from last year, but the fact that Ramon Dominguez is riding Hansen (14) over him and his bumpy road to the Derby I will put him in the 6-10 bracket.

12. Prospective (30-1) Prospective comes off a dissapointing effort in the Bluegrass Stakes but prior he won the Tampa Bay Derby. The problem with Prospective is that he did not beat much in the Tampa Bay Derby, and when he has been placed in top compettion he has not been a factor. He ran a horrid race last year in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I believe Prospective will be a non-factor so I will place him in the 16-20 bracket.

13. Went the Day Well (20-1)- Went the Day Well shares the exact same connections as last years Kentucky Derby Winner, Animal Kingdom. Owned by Team Valor International, trained by Graham Motion, and ridden by John Velasquez Went the Day Well will be a major player in this years Kentucky Derby. Purchased by Barry Irwin after two races in England it did not take Went the Day Well long to make an impact in the United States. After a fourth in his U.S. debut, he won a maiden race and followed it up with a smashing victory in the Vinery Racing Spiral, the same race Animal Kingdom won prior to the Derby. Went the Day Well is improving and has already won on dirt something Animal Kingdom had not yet done. I think Went the Day Well is in a position to get a perfect trip in mid pack and could be right there at the end, so I will put Went the Day Well in the 1-5 bracket.

14. Hansen (12-1)- Hansen, last year's two year old champion has one win and two seconds this year. After a loss in his seasonal debut, he rebounded with an impressive win in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct which he followed up with a second to Dullahan in the Bluegrass. Hansen is a free running colt who will be part of the pace early on. I do not think Hansen wants a mile and a quarter, the pace will be too hot with the likes of Trinniberg and Bodemeister for Hansen to stretch his speed to this distance. I think Hansen will be overbet and will end up being a non-factor so I will put him in the 11-15 bracket. 

15. Gemologist (6-1)- Gemologist is an undefeated 5 for 5. His body of work includes being undefeated at Churchill Downs and a Grade 1 win last time out in the Wood Memorial. He was only started twice this year and figures to improve again. He got a stern test last time out when Alpha tested him in mid stretch. Gemologist responded to win the Wood. Gemologist should get a really good trip sitting outside of the main speed as well as being able to see Union Rags to his inside. Gemologist's connections are the lethal combination of Javier Castellano and Todd Pletcher, which only help his cause. Gemologist’s records lands him in the 1-5 bracket. 

16. El Padrino (20-1)- El Padrino had all the hype following his gutsy Risen Star victory on the heels of his solid allowance score, but that was followed up by a dull effort in the Florida Derby. The Florida Derby fourth place effort cannot be ignored, but I still think El Padrino offers a lot of upside.  El Padrino is tough as he showed when he prevailed in the Risen Star stretch duel. He is the "Other Pletcher" which is always dangerous because Gemologist will get most of the play and El Padrino could be in a position to make a splash. I think he is a major factor and he is in the 1-5 bracket. 

17. Done Talking (50-1)- Done Talking comes off an upset win in the Illinois Derby, but he will still not gain a lot of respect as his morning line shows. He will be coming from behind like he did in the Illinois Derby. His dissapointing effort in the Gotham does not reflect on this horse who ran a very good fourth in the Remsen in his last start as a two year old. Done Talking will make a run late but I think it will be too little too late and he will finish in the 11-15 bracket. 

18. Sabercat (30-1)- Sabercat improved off his lackluster seasonal debut in the Arkansas Derby running a decent third. Sabercat won the Delta Jackpot in his two year old finale, a race that really played into his hand. I do not see him being enough of a factor to hit the board because of the quality of this race in which he might find himself over his head. I think Sabercat fits in the 11-15 bracket. 

19. I'll Have Another (12-1)- I'll Have Another has had a perfect year and has run only one bad race in his career. I'll Have Another has run well fresh in both of his starts this year, and comes into this race off only a four week rest. I'll Have Another ran a gutsy race to get up and win the Santa Anita Derby by a nose. The horse has clearly improved around two turns but I do not think he will be enough of a factor Saturday. I'll Have Another's post position does not set up well for him. I do not think he wants to drop to the back or be rushed to the front leaving him in a place where he could get caught very wide. He is a talented colt but I do not think the Derby will be his day so I will put him in the 6-10 bracket. 

20. Liaison (50-1)- Liaison has had a lackluster year. After losing his rider in the first race of the year he has continued to perform poorly in his next starts. His performance could be attributed to the Santa Anita dirt, which he did not seem to like. Liaison is scary because if he takes to the Churchill dirt he could be a factor, but based on his current form I do not think Liason will be. Liason will finish in the 16-20 bracket. 

Selections for the Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) $2,000,000

1. Union Rags

2. Went the Day Well

3. Gemologist

Creative Cause and El Padrino will not be far behind either. 

1-5 In Alphabetical Order

1. Creative Cause

2. El Padrino

3. Gemologist

4. Union Rags

5. Went the Day Well

6-10 

6. Alpha 

7. Daddy Nose Best 

8. Dullahan 

9. I'll Have Another

10. Take Charge Indy 

11-15 

11. Bodemeister

12. Done Talking

13. Hansen 

14. Optimizier

15. Sabercat

16-20

16. Daddy Long Legs 

17. Liason

18. Prospective

19. Rousing Sermon 

20. Trinniberg 

New Derby Top 20 Final List 4/26/12

1. Gemologist- This horse knows how to win, should get a great trip
2. Bodemeister- Addition of Trinniberg does not help him but he might just be the best horse
3. Daddy Nose Best- Derby is a step up but do not overlook him
4. Union Rags- He needs to run faster than he has to win the Derby and he also seems to get himself in trouble
5. Creative Cause- I am not sure why they are so reluctant for him to wear blinkers
6. I'll Have Another- He runs well fresh, but he ran big in the Santa Anita Derby and only gets a month
7. Alpha- Was never going to get by Gemologist, might be overlooked though
8. Dullahan- I am not confident in his dirt ability but I am in his 1 1/4 abiliy.
9. Went the Day Well- His dirt win was good at Gulfstream needs to step up
10. Take Charge Indy- Will need to sit right off the lead, might not be good enough
11. El Padrino- I look for him to rebound in the Derby might not be good enough to win though
12. Sabercat- Third off the layoff needs to get significantly better though
13. Hansen- I do not think he is capable of 1 1/4 and there is a lot of speed
14. Mark Valeski- Lost shoe in Louisiana Derby, needs to be better though
15. Done Talking- There is a lot of speed and he will be running late, just saying
16. Daddy Long Legs- He was never a factor in the Juvenile back on the Churchill Dirt
17. Liason- Might like the Churchill Dirt and in that case he becomes a factor but he has been bad
18. Rousing Sermon- He needs to step up will also be running late
19. Trinniberg- Will be on the gas early never been two turns won't be there at the end
20. Prospective- No Way

New Derby Top 20 4/18/2012

1. Gemologist- The horse fights hard, he is a winner, and has won at churchill
2. Bodemeister- If he runs anything like that on Derby day he will be tough
3. Daddy Nose Best- There is a lot of speed and he has Gomez
4. Union Rags- He needs to step up but the race sets up for him
5. Creative Cause- I am not sure why they are so apprehensive to put blinkers on him
6. I'll Have Another- He is 2 for 2 this year, can't blame him for that
7. Alpha- He earned my respect in the Wood but was never getting by Gemologist
8. Dullahan- He is built for the Derby Distance but I question his dirt ability
9. Went the Day Well- Flying Under the radar should love Derby Distance
10. Take Charge Indy- Improving will be off the pace in the Derby
11. Sabercat- Third off the layoff at churchill watchout
12. Hansen- If he gets 1 1/4 I will be shocked, there is a lot of speed in the race as well
13. Secret Circle- He always fires will be right off the pace
14. Daddy Long Legs- I don't particulary get it his dirt race was horrid
15. El Padrino- He is better 15 but I am not sure he will get in
16. Mark Valeski- Also on the border whether he gets in or not could be a factor though
17. Done Talking- Ran well in the Illinois Derby third off the layoff he has a chance from off the pace
18. Wrote- He has some upside if he likes the dirt.
19. Liason- He disliked the Santa Anita dirt, but does he like dirt at all
20. Prospective- Not good enough

I think Rousing Sermon will run in Snow Chief, if he chooses Derby I would put him at 18 and move Liason and Wrote back, and move Prospective out of the top 20.

Derby Top 20 4/10/12

Derby Top 20
1. Gemologist- I loved how hard he fought in the Wood, loves Churchill
2. Creative Cause- Santa Anita Derby was discouraging
3. Daddy Nose Best- Work was good, under rated, will be a nice price on Derby Day
4. Union Rags- I keep waiting for him to step up on the big day
5. Hansen- Bluegrass is a really tough race, track is playing to speed though
6. I'll Have Another- I am thinking bounce in the Derby
7. Bodemeister- needs to win Arkansas Derby to get in Derby, he very well could though
8. Went the Day Well- graded earnings are all of the sudden an issue, but he should get in.
9. Alpha- Was never going to get by Gemologist but his race was very impressive
10. Take Charge Indy- He should get good trip in Derby, may not be good enough
11. Dullahan- Bluegrass will be a good test on how good he is, but dirt is question
12. Secret Circle- He has the earnings whether Arkansas derby goes well or not
13.Mark Valeski- I hope he gets in he is a good racehorse
14. Daddy Long Legs- I don't get it his BC Juvenile was awful
15. Prospective- He has not done anything wrong yet this year
16. Howe Great- needs graded earnings and Bluegrass is tough, but he is a winner
17. Wrote- He has the graded earnings as well O'Brien wants a derby but I dont think this is the horse
18. Liason- The horse does not want dirt, get over it, but he has the earnings
19. Sabercat- Needs a huge step up in Arkansas Derby, if not Derby should not be next step
20. Done Talking- I thought Illinois Derby was good, his Remsen was good, he can run.

Sidenote- El Padrino is a ton of trouble, I don't think he can get in, and Trinniberg is more likely for Preakness although he has enough Graded earnings.

Derby Top 20

There is quite the shakeup in this week's Derby top 20, following major preps there are new horses cracking the top 10 and top 20.

1. Creative Cause- Number 1 because everyone else is falling off, but he is very good.
2. Daddy Nose Best- Love this horse very consistent, seems like he will love Derby Distance
3. Union Rags- He will bounce back but how good is he really?
4. Hansen- Bluegrass is a good choice I think same pattern as Juvenile
5. Gemologist- Yet to lose, Wood Memorial is good test
6. Bodemeister- next race is crucial
7. I'll Have Another- Santa Anita Derby will be a deciding point on this colt
8. Went the Day Well- I loved his spiral effort
9. Take Charge Indy- I liked his Florida Derby but I am not convinced, everything went his way
10. Dullahan- I am not convinced on his dirt ability
11. Howe Great- Very consistent, yet to run a bad race, Bluegrass is next
12. Mark Valeski- We will see I think he is tough, threw a shoe might surprise people on Derby Day
13. Liason- Derby might be a race that suits him, needs to show more though
14. El Padrino- Pretty dissapointed in his Florida Derby effort he hs the ability to bounce back though
15. Secret Circle- The distance keeps getting longer but he keeps winning
16. Alpha- I am really not a fan after watching his replays has not beaten a soul
17. My Adonis- Has fired every time except Delta Jackpot should run well in Wood
18. The Lumber Guy- I really like this horse watch out for him in Wood, he will be my selection
19. Prospective- Very consistent needs to get better
20. Holy Candy- His maiden win was great but he is playing catch up

Daddy Long Legs and Wrote are both being pointed to Derby but I do not get it, Daddy Long Legs hated the dirt in the the Breeders Cup I do not know what would change now, just because he is by Scat Daddy does not mean he will suddenly love dirt.

Derby Top 20 3/14/12

1. Union Rags-Still number 1
2. Creative Cause- San Felipe was really good, top two are distancing themselves from the rest
3. Hansen- Gotham was good 10 furlongs is my question
4. Alpha- In the Florida Derby, he will run into El Padrino and Unions Rags, good test
5. El Padrino- Will run in the Florida Derby next, will be a good test
6.Bodemeister- Will just get better and better
7. I'll Have Another- Robert Lewis form is questionable
8. Gemologist- Makes first start this week
9. Mark Valeski- not getting very much respect for his risen star effort
10. Howe Great- Still not getting deerved respect has done nothing wrong.
11. Dullahan- His return was really good, should love the 10 furlongs
12. Secret Circle- Southwest was good, did not seem to being getting tired late
13. Sabercat- I am excited to see his rebel
14. Liason- San Felipe was not bad will love the Derby Distance
15. News Pending- Fountain of Youth was good
16. My Adonis- Runs solid every time
17- Went the Day Well- Improved in last start needs to improve again, Illinois Derby next?
18. - Prospective- Tampa Bay Derby was good, will get much needed class test next
19. Scatman- We will see how far he wants to go
20. Castaway- Will learn a  lot in the rebel

Derby Top 20 2/29/12

1. Union Rags- Fountain of Youth could not have been better, clearly number 1
2. Creative Cause- Should Improve with distance
3. Fed Biz- Will get major class test
4. Out Of Bounds- Will only get better
5. Alpha- Florida Derby or Wodd Memorial next?
6. Battle Hardened- Will only improve, and is not getting a lot of respect
7. I'll Have Another- Runs well fresh, waiting for Santa Anita Derby
8. El Padrino- Risen Star was good, but not great
9. Hansen- Gotham will be a big test
10. Gemologist- Major drop, needs a start soon
11. Secret Circle- Rebel was good, very good
12. Mark Valeski- Improved in Risen Star, clearly wants two turns
13. Howe Great- still under the radar, very versatile
14. Empire Way- Time for him to run a big race
15.  Take Charge Indy- Still a factor
16. Sabercat- He has gotten to work, first race back will be important
17. Castaway- Won slower rebel
18. Dullahan- Palm Beach will be his return
19. Liason- Needs to show more next time
20. Scatman- Ran really well in Rebel

On the bubble- Bodemeister, Rousing Sermon, Ever So Lucky
The Gotham will provide a lot of information especially regarding Hansen as well as some new comers.

Derby Top 20

1. Union Rags (Will learn a lot this weekend, he does not need to win but he needs to run really well)
2. Algorithms (Moves up with Creative Cause loss and strong work)
3. Fed Biz (Great allowance win)
4. Creative Cause (Was slightly discouraged by third place finish)
5. Battle Hardened (Sam Davis was weak but he will improve)
6. Gemologist (Loves Churchill needs to run soon though)
7. Out of Bounds (Will be part of loaded San Felipe)
8. Discreet Dancer (Work was good might be over his head this weekend)
9. Alpha (Waiting for Wood is a good move, he is on a roll)
10. I'll Have Another (Good Lewis win waiting till Santa Anita Derby, runs well fresh)
11. El Padrino (Heads Risen Star we will see how good he is)
12. Hansen (Gotham is a very important race for 2yo champion)
13. Howe Great (Under the Radar)
14.  Take Charge Indy (Will be factor in Fountain of Youth)
15. Empire Way (Improving  in every start)
16. Secret Circle (Southwest was very good, showed grit)
17. Ever So Lucky (I need to see something big from him next time out)
18. Castaway (Won slower version of Southwest but blew field away)
19. Dullahan (Will return soon, I have questions)
20. Shared Property (Ran the best race in Lecomte)

Derby top 15 2/14/12

This is the new Derby Top 15 Fed Biz enters the top 15 and goes all the way to three, his allowance win was very good, watch out for Fed Biz. Ever So Lucky drops out of the top 15 after not running in the Hutchenson, I am not sure he wants two turns.
1. Union Rags (Castellano opted for Algorithms still not worried)
2. Creative Cause (Nearing return )
3. Fed Biz (Allowance Win was impressive) *New*
4. Algorithms (The more iI think about him the more I like him, and Castellano chose to ride him in the Foutain of Youth over Union Rags)
5. Battle Hardened (Loved his win at Tampa, should improve)
6. Gemologist (Loves Churchill)
7. Discreet Dancer (Talent loaded two turns is the next question)
8. Out of Bounds  (I initially loved his last race but now I want to see one more)
9. Alpha (has not run against anything but has been impressive)
10. I'll have Another (Robert Lewis was very impressive)
11. El Padrino (Good allowancewin could act as springboard for bigger and better things)
12. Hansen (Gotham next, a crucial race)
13. Howe Great (Very versatile, know one is taking about him, watch out)
14. Take Charge Indy (bred to be a star likely to improve)
15. Empire Way (also bred to be a strar seems to be improving with every start)

***I am not a Dullahan fan, I think he passed tired horses in the Juvenile, he is good on synthetic but not nearly good enough on dirt.