Kentucky Derby Analysis (Horse by Horse)

The 138th running of the Kentucky Derby features morning line favorite Bodemeister, talented Union Rags, and the flashy Hansen. The Derby is always one of the hardest races of the year to predict, as the 20 three year olds cavalry charge makes traffic problems imminent. Here is a horse-by-horse analysis to hopefully improve your knowledge of every horse so that you can make a pick in this years Kentucky Derby! I ranked each horse in brackets of 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, and 16-20. At the very bottom are my final selections. 

PP  Horse Name        Odds

1. Daddy Long Legs (30-1)- Daddy Long Legs is trained by the legendary Irish trainer Aidan O' Brien, who sent the Irish horse across the pond to run in last Breeders Cup Juvenile. The race was a disaster; seeming like he never took to the dirt, Daddy Long Legs was never a factor. This year he was sent over to Dubai in his seasonal debut for the UAE Derby. This time over a synthetic surface similar to a grass racecourse Daddy Long Legs relished the ground winning the 2 million dollar race. In the Derby I will look past Daddy Long Legs due to his horrid post and dislike of the dirt surface. I will place him in my final quarter which is 16-20

2. Optimizer (50-1)- Optimizer is trained by four-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Optimizer is an inconsistent horse. Last year as a two year old he ran a very impressive second in the Breeders Futurity, but he followed that effort up with a dull performance in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. This year the pattern was similar as he ran an impressive second in the Rebel Stakes, only to follow it up with a dull 9th in the Arkansas Derby. I look for Optimizer to run better than that but I still consider him not good enough to get the job done. I will place him in the 11-15 bracket.

3. Take Charge Indy (15-1)- Take Charge Indy comes off an impressive gate to wire win in the Florida Derby defeating Union Rags. In what was only his second start of the year, Take Charge Indy took advantage of the speed bias and led all the way around the track holding off Reveron and Union Rags. Take Charge Indy benefits from a long time in between races as he showed between his seasonal bow and the Florida Derby. Calvin Borel stays aboard Take Charge Indy and because Calvin Borel is a three time Derby winner his odds will be shorter than what he should be. I believe he is peaking at the right time, but the speed bias that got him home at Gulfstream. In the Derby he will simply not be good enough to hit the board, I will put him in the 6-10 bracket.

4. Union Rags (9-2)- Union Rags is the second choice on the morning line and deservingly so. Trained by Micheal Matz of Barbaro fame, Unions Rags returned to the races this year with a smashing score in the Fountain of Youth but followed that performance up with a traffic filled dull third in the Florida Derby. Based on what he has shown in his workouts leading up to the Derby, Union Rags should be a main threat in the Derby. I love him, I think he will about 5-1 which is a great price for such a good horse. I think Union Rags certainly belongs in the 1-5 bracket.

5. Dullahan (8-1)- Dullahan comes off a win the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland last time out, but i was on a synthetic surface and the Kentucky Derby is on the dirt. Dullahan has two career wins, both Grade 1 wins on the Keeneland polytrack. His race on dirt in the Juvenile last year was just ok, as he finished fourth. He possesses a very strong closing kick and will be coming late, but I am willing to bet that his closing kick is not as powerful on dirt as it is on turf or synthetic. I am not a huge Dullahan fan and I have him in the 6-10 bracket.

6. Bodemeister (4-1)- Bodemeister is the morning line favorite coming off his dominating 9 length win in the Arkansas Derby. Trained by the red hot Bob Baffert, Bodemeister is the deserving favorite, but I see too many flaws in Bodemeister to pick him. In Bodemeister's last win in the Arkansas Derby, only two horses are coming back to run in the Kentucky Derby and both will be major longshots. I do not believe Bodemeister beat a whole lot in the Arkansas Derby. My second problem with Bodemeister is the pace scenario. Bodemeister will be part of a hot pace that will be contested by Trinniberg and Hansen. I am not convinced Bodemeister can handle this hot pace and I think the quality of the field and the pace will catch up to Bodemeister in the Derby I have him in a shock in the 11-15 bracket.

7. Rousing Sermon (50-1)- Rousing Sermon is coming off a solid third place finish in the Lousiana Derby, but the quality of the field in the Lousiana Derby is in question. Rousing Sermon ran on late to pass tired horses in the Lousiana Derby. I do not think he is good enough to be a true factor in the Kentucky Derby. He will be at the back and will make a run late but I don't think he will be good enough. I have him in the 16-20 bracket.

8. Creative Cause (12-1)- Creative Cause is the most consistent horse in the race. He has never been beaten more than a length and he has been competing at the highest level. Last time out in the Santa Anita Derby he lost to I'll Have Another (19) by just a nose. He ran extremely well at Churchill last year finishing third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Creative Cause will hit the board in the Derby, he always does. I think 12-1 presents great value and so I have Creative Cause in the 1-5 bracket.

9. Trinniberg (50-1)- Trinniberg comes into the Kentucky Derby off two fantastic wins, the problem is both of those wins come at the sprinters distance of 7 furlongs. The Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles or 10 furlongs. Trinniberg has never gone a route distance or gone two turns. Trinniberg is fast, for a sprinter, which means he will be very fast for the route distance. Trinniberg will be on the lead and could present a problem for horse likes Hansen and Bodemeister. Trinniberg will be on the lead for a long time but I believe the distance will catch up to him, so I have Trinniberg in the 16-20 bracket.

10. Daddy Nose Best (15-1)- Daddy Nose Best comes off two good wins. He took the El Camino Real Derby followed by a win on conventional dirt in the Sunland Park Derby. Daddy Nose Best has been training really well and presents a major threat coming from mid-pack and closing into the fast pace. He will be ridden by Garrett Gomez who rides best when the big moment presents itself. I think the quality of the Derby might be a little too much for him though, but I do think he will fire his best shot. I have him in the 6-10 bracket.

11. Alpha (15-1)- Alpha has done nothing wrong this year, he ran a very impressive second to Gemologist (15) in the Wood Memorial. My problem with Alpha was his dismal effort last year in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I know there were excuses but I don't think Alpha will prove to be good enough to hit the board. He will improve from last year, but the fact that Ramon Dominguez is riding Hansen (14) over him and his bumpy road to the Derby I will put him in the 6-10 bracket.

12. Prospective (30-1) Prospective comes off a dissapointing effort in the Bluegrass Stakes but prior he won the Tampa Bay Derby. The problem with Prospective is that he did not beat much in the Tampa Bay Derby, and when he has been placed in top compettion he has not been a factor. He ran a horrid race last year in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I believe Prospective will be a non-factor so I will place him in the 16-20 bracket.

13. Went the Day Well (20-1)- Went the Day Well shares the exact same connections as last years Kentucky Derby Winner, Animal Kingdom. Owned by Team Valor International, trained by Graham Motion, and ridden by John Velasquez Went the Day Well will be a major player in this years Kentucky Derby. Purchased by Barry Irwin after two races in England it did not take Went the Day Well long to make an impact in the United States. After a fourth in his U.S. debut, he won a maiden race and followed it up with a smashing victory in the Vinery Racing Spiral, the same race Animal Kingdom won prior to the Derby. Went the Day Well is improving and has already won on dirt something Animal Kingdom had not yet done. I think Went the Day Well is in a position to get a perfect trip in mid pack and could be right there at the end, so I will put Went the Day Well in the 1-5 bracket.

14. Hansen (12-1)- Hansen, last year's two year old champion has one win and two seconds this year. After a loss in his seasonal debut, he rebounded with an impressive win in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct which he followed up with a second to Dullahan in the Bluegrass. Hansen is a free running colt who will be part of the pace early on. I do not think Hansen wants a mile and a quarter, the pace will be too hot with the likes of Trinniberg and Bodemeister for Hansen to stretch his speed to this distance. I think Hansen will be overbet and will end up being a non-factor so I will put him in the 11-15 bracket. 

15. Gemologist (6-1)- Gemologist is an undefeated 5 for 5. His body of work includes being undefeated at Churchill Downs and a Grade 1 win last time out in the Wood Memorial. He was only started twice this year and figures to improve again. He got a stern test last time out when Alpha tested him in mid stretch. Gemologist responded to win the Wood. Gemologist should get a really good trip sitting outside of the main speed as well as being able to see Union Rags to his inside. Gemologist's connections are the lethal combination of Javier Castellano and Todd Pletcher, which only help his cause. Gemologist’s records lands him in the 1-5 bracket. 

16. El Padrino (20-1)- El Padrino had all the hype following his gutsy Risen Star victory on the heels of his solid allowance score, but that was followed up by a dull effort in the Florida Derby. The Florida Derby fourth place effort cannot be ignored, but I still think El Padrino offers a lot of upside.  El Padrino is tough as he showed when he prevailed in the Risen Star stretch duel. He is the "Other Pletcher" which is always dangerous because Gemologist will get most of the play and El Padrino could be in a position to make a splash. I think he is a major factor and he is in the 1-5 bracket. 

17. Done Talking (50-1)- Done Talking comes off an upset win in the Illinois Derby, but he will still not gain a lot of respect as his morning line shows. He will be coming from behind like he did in the Illinois Derby. His dissapointing effort in the Gotham does not reflect on this horse who ran a very good fourth in the Remsen in his last start as a two year old. Done Talking will make a run late but I think it will be too little too late and he will finish in the 11-15 bracket. 

18. Sabercat (30-1)- Sabercat improved off his lackluster seasonal debut in the Arkansas Derby running a decent third. Sabercat won the Delta Jackpot in his two year old finale, a race that really played into his hand. I do not see him being enough of a factor to hit the board because of the quality of this race in which he might find himself over his head. I think Sabercat fits in the 11-15 bracket. 

19. I'll Have Another (12-1)- I'll Have Another has had a perfect year and has run only one bad race in his career. I'll Have Another has run well fresh in both of his starts this year, and comes into this race off only a four week rest. I'll Have Another ran a gutsy race to get up and win the Santa Anita Derby by a nose. The horse has clearly improved around two turns but I do not think he will be enough of a factor Saturday. I'll Have Another's post position does not set up well for him. I do not think he wants to drop to the back or be rushed to the front leaving him in a place where he could get caught very wide. He is a talented colt but I do not think the Derby will be his day so I will put him in the 6-10 bracket. 

20. Liaison (50-1)- Liaison has had a lackluster year. After losing his rider in the first race of the year he has continued to perform poorly in his next starts. His performance could be attributed to the Santa Anita dirt, which he did not seem to like. Liaison is scary because if he takes to the Churchill dirt he could be a factor, but based on his current form I do not think Liason will be. Liason will finish in the 16-20 bracket. 

Selections for the Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) $2,000,000

1. Union Rags

2. Went the Day Well

3. Gemologist

Creative Cause and El Padrino will not be far behind either. 

1-5 In Alphabetical Order

1. Creative Cause

2. El Padrino

3. Gemologist

4. Union Rags

5. Went the Day Well

6-10 

6. Alpha 

7. Daddy Nose Best 

8. Dullahan 

9. I'll Have Another

10. Take Charge Indy 

11-15 

11. Bodemeister

12. Done Talking

13. Hansen 

14. Optimizier

15. Sabercat

16-20

16. Daddy Long Legs 

17. Liason

18. Prospective

19. Rousing Sermon 

20. Trinniberg 

Gulfstream Stakes races 2/11/12

GulfStream Park 2012




Gulfstream Park is host to a phenomenal day of racing on Saturday. Headlined by the return of Shackelford, Ruler On Ice, the emergence of Trickmeister, and the dangerous Flat Out, making the Donn the race of the year so far. The Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap follows the Donn, another field that is loaded with talent, the race features Silver Medallion winner of two in a row, Boisterous, who is always dangerous especially on the cut back, and the always consistent Smart Bid. The Hutchenson features the talented Ever So Lucky who towers over the field talent wise but there are questions on whether or not he will run.



The Hutcheson, a 7 furlong race on the main track is all about Ever So Lucky, if he runs the race he is supposed to he is head and shoulders better than the rest. His only one turn race was phenomenal, and the cut back in distance first, off the layoff should benefit him. This field does not provide a standout past Ever So Lucky. ll Villano may be the next best shot. He ran a respectable race to Alpha who returned to the win the Withers Stakes last weekend. The cut back in distance may benefit him as well. ll Villano is quick; he will be pressing the pace if not on it. The rest of the field is taking a major step up in class. Thunder Moccasin will be the other major threat to Ever So Lucky. In his first and only start he beat a good group of maidens, this is a step up in class, that on Saturday he may find difficult. Dale Romans trains two entered in the race and I favor Tarpy’s Goal over Quick Wit. Tarpy’s Goal ran very well last time out and I expect him to be a factor. Selections

1. Ever So Lucky

2. ll Villano

3. Tarpy’s Goal



The Donn Handicap has the potential to be a key race for the rest of the year in the older division. The race starts with Preakness Winner Shackelford, who returns for the first time since his tenacious effort in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. Shackelford, aside from the Travers flop, shows up every time. His last try at 1 mile and 1/8 on the Gulfstream surface he got nailed at the wire in the Florida Derby. Shackelford will be on the pace, he will be fresh and I think he will run a big race first off the bench. I do not think he will win, but he is as gritty as they come and he will be in with a big shot at the eighth pole. Ruler on Ice also makes his first start since the Breeders Cup. Ruler on Ice ran a very credible race in the Classic picking up the pieces late to finish third. My problem with Ruler on Ice is that he always seems to pass tired horses to end up finishing in the money. I think against a field as talented as this Ruler On Ice may be up against it. The distance may actually be a little too short for the gelding whose biggest win came In the Belmont Stakes. Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount, and no one has been riding better than her, but even Rosie will not get Ruler on Ice to the winner’s circle Saturday. Next comes Flat Out. His turf experiment last time was an absolute disaster. The big question with Flat Out is can he duplicate his performances in New York to other tracks. I think Flat Out may even be better at one turn, something that has only been explored at Belmont. Hopefully he will be considered for races such as the Metropolitan Mile down the road. Until I see him run a credible race outside of New York, I cannot see Flat Out being a real factor in this race. The race turns to the Richard Dutrow Jr. pair Trickmeister and Redeemed, Trickmeister being the more highly touted of the two. Trickmeister has done nothing wrong in his short career, as he is easily undefeated, but soundness problems have caused him to run sparingly. He will see a tougher field Saturday than he has ever seen before, and we will learn a lot about Trickmeister very shortly. Redeemed is a solid racehorse but I am not sure if he is up to the task. He is consistent so he may be there. My selection in the Donn is Sangaree, which is a little bit of a reach. Sangaree has yet to break through at the highest level but I think Saturday is his day. His last race was very good, and his two turn race against Rule at Saratoga was really strong. I think with the perfect trip he could inherit the lead late. Mission Impazible is always a threat but he never seems to get there, the pace should be hot and he will be a part of that, and I expect him to fade late. The rest of the field includes Soaring Empire, who does not want two turns, Hymn Book who is a cut below this field, and Where’s Sterling who like Hymn Book, is up against it class wise.

Selections-

1. Sangaree

2. Shackelford

3. Trickmeister



The Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap is an evenly matched race, and it starts with Silver Medallion. Silver Medallion’s last two races were very impressive. He will be flying late, and should get pace to run at. The question regarding Silver Medallion is whether or not he is good enough to win this race, although he has been beating a few of these. One of the horses Silver Medallion has beaten twice in a row is Hollinger, Hollinger is consistent but does not find the winner circle often. He will need a very large effort to turn the tables on Silver Medallion. I do not see it happening. I believe Big Blue Kitten is a major player in this race. Big Blue Kitten’s only two losses were his debut, and his last start which was his first start off a layoff. In between those two races Big Blue Kitten was five for five including a grade 2 victory at Saratoga. His return to the races was encouraging, and I am looking for him to run a huge race Saturday. Yummy With Butter is a very solid grass horse, he will be on or near the lead, but I do not think he is good enough to win this race. Boisterous will receive a lot of play Saturday, and for good reason. Boisterous has won two graded races in a row, and could improve with the cut back in distance. He has tried grade 1 company before, and has been unsuccessful, but Saturday may be his day. Yankee Fortune is intriguing because this will be his third start off the layoff. His last race was good, Little Mike who defeated him came back to win. Yankee Fortune could be a serious player to finish in the money. Get Stormy is always good, aside from his Breeders Cup performances Get Stormy is always a contender. He almost won this race last year, and is proven at the distance. He should get a great trip either on the lead or sitting right off Yummy With Butter. I think he may need this race though but look to him to run very well for trainer Thomas Bush. Kindergarden Kid is a good horse but simply not good enough to win the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. Smart Bid is dangerous. Smart Bid will get a picture perfect trip. He will sit right off Get Stormy and Yummy With Butter and could inherit the lead late. Smart Bid was a nose away from winning this race last year and a fresh Smart Bid could produce big things Saturday. The last horse in the race is Al Khali who is a solid horse but I think he wants more distance. Making selections in this race was very difficult because all the horses are so even but here they are.



1. Big Blue Kitten

2. Smart Bid

3. Yankee Fortune

4. Get Stormy