Weekend Stakes Selections 8-25-12 and 8-26-12

This weekend belongs to Saratoga and Del Mar. On Saturday Saratoga hosts The Travers Stakes. The Mid-Summer Derby is the marquee race of the Saratoga meet every year.  The Travers which is for three year olds going  a 1 1/4 miles features Alpha, who won the prep race for the Travers, The Jim Dandy Stakes. The other major contenders are Nonios, Neck N' Neck, Street Life, and Liason. Leading up to the Travers which runs as race 12 are three other major stakes races.
On Sunday at Del Mar they run the biggest race of their season in the Pacific Classic. The million dollar race for three year olds and upward features the top older male in training right now Game On Dude, as well as Richard's Kid, Dullahan, Rail Trip, and the filly Amani. The Pacific Classic also has a great undercard. My selections for the Travers Stakes, the Pacific Classic, and much more are below.

Saratoga
Saturday

Race 9 Grade II Ballston Spa Stakes $250,000
1. Hungry Island
2. Zagora
3. Summer Soiree

Race 10 Grade I Test Stakes $500,000
1. Book Review
2. Contested
3. Amie's Dini

Race 11 Grade I Foxwoods King's Bishop Stakes $500,000
1. Ever So Lucky
2. Trinniberg
3. Currency Swap

Race 12  Grade I Travers Stakes $1,000,000
1. Alpha
2. Stealcase
3. Nonios

I tried to beat Alpha in the Travers, but no matter where I looked Alpha looked too good. Alpha is the class of the field. Alpha's Jim Dandy victory was very impressive. In a race with little speed Alpha took advantage and never looked back. His main challenger in the race was Neck n' Neck, who is a very good horse but in the last 70 yards Alpha was pulling away from Neck n' Neck suggesting that Alpha will enjoy the added distance, and Neck n' Neck may not. Alpha is just too good for this field and I look for him to win this years Travers Stakes from right off the pace. While I picked the favorite to win, I believe a horse that may not get that much attention is a major player to hit the board, Stealcase. Stealcase is improving with each and every start. He seems to be enjoying the added distance, and he may get a decent set up in the race. While there are a few deep closers in the race I look for Stealcase to be a little closer and get the jump on horses like Street Life. I am taking a shot by putting Stealcase in my top 3 but I believe he is really improving and should love the 1 1/4 miles distance so he is worth a shot at 15-1. Nonios ran very well in the Haskell Invitational last time out, and while I believe that was a strong race to finish second, he will get a real class test today, I look for him to hit the board, but I do not think he will beat Alpha. Alpha will be the favorite and in this years edition of the Travers Stakes, Alpha will be the winner.

Saratoga
Sunday

Race 10 Grade I Personal Ensign Handicap $600,000
1. Royal Delta
2. Brushed by a Star
3. It's Tricky

Del Mar
Sunday

Race 5 Grade I Pat O' Brien Stakes $250,000
1. Camp Victory
2. Capital Account
3. Coil

Race 7 Grade II Del Mar Mile $200,000
1. Mr. Commons
2. Jeranimo
3. Calimonco

Race 9 Grade I TVG Pacific Classic Stakes $1,000,000
1. Suggestive Boy
2. Dullahan
3. Richard's Kid

Game On Dude is  undoubtedly the horse to beat in this years Pacific Classic. He is undefeated in the United States this year, his only loss coming in the Dubai World Cup. Last time out he won the Grade I Hollywood Gold Cup defeating Richard's Kid, but that was on the cushion track, and his win at Santa Anita earlier in the year was on dirt, Del Mar has a different type of synthetic surface, Polytrack. Game on Dude finished fourth in the 2011 edition of the Pacific Classic, and he really had no excuse. Game on Dude is better than every horse in this field but I believe he does not care for the Del Mar surface and I will take a stand against him. I believe he will finish fourth again. My pick is Suggestive Boy. Suggestive Boy will be making his third start in this country since being imported from Argentina. His last start in the Wickerr on the turf was very impressive. He will be making his first start on the Polytrack, but I do not believe that will be an issue. I believe he will love the distance and will get the first jump on the other major closers. I look for Suggestive Boy to pass Game on Dude in the last eighth of a mile and then hold off the other late closers like Dullahan, Richard's Kid, and Amani. Dullahan loves polytrack, he is 2 for 2 over the surface with two Grade I wins. I believe he is talented enough to compete with this field, and he loves the distance and the surface. Dullahan is not a dirt horse, he is a synthetic/turf horse and this race fits him perfectly. Dullahan does not have to be that far off the pace and I look for him to be mid-pack. He will get first run on Richard's Kid and thats why I like Dullahan to finish second. He also gets the services of Joel Rosario one of the best riders in the country. Richard's Kid loves Del Mar, he has won two Pacific Classic's. He won the race in 2009 and 2010 and did not compete last year. He loves the distance and the surface and should be flying late but with really good closers getting the jump on him I look for Richard's Kid to come up short this year. The Pacific Classic will be a very exciting race, and Game on Dude may get it done this year, but if they are going to beat him Sunday may just be the day.

The 144th Running of the Belmont Stakes

The Belmont Stakes is the third and final leg of the Triple Crown. Run over a 1 ½ miles at Belmont Park. The Belmont Stakes is known as the "Test of Champions", and is  the longest and most grueling of the three Triple Crown races.  In this year's 144th running of the Belmont Stakes all eyes will be on a single horse, I'll Have Another. I'll Have Another will attempt to become the 12th Triple Crown Winner and first since 1978 when Affirmed accomplished the task. I'll Have Another breaks from post number 11 and is 4-5 odds on the morning line. His main competitors in the race will come from Dullahan (#5) who was a stong third in the Kentucky Derby, Union Rags (#3), a troubled 7th in the Kentucky Derby, and Paynter, a talented runner hailing from the barn of Bob Baffert. Below will be my horse by horse analysis of the Belmont Stakes followed by my selections. Happy Belmont week, and hopefully on Monday I will be blogging about the 12th Triple Crown winner!

PP  Name  (Odds)   [My Odds] 

1  Street Life (12-1)   [10-1] -  Street Life is trained by the young, but proven Chad Brown, owned in part by Houston Texans owner Robert McNair and is ridden by the always capable Jose Lezcano. Street Life will be a factor in this year’s Belmont Stakes. Street Life will be off of the television screen early in the race because he is a very deep closer. Street Life likes to drop way behind and make one big kick towards the end of the race. Street Life comes into the Belmont Stakes off of a respectable third place effort in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park four weeks ago. Prior to the Peter Pan he had a poor showing in the Wood Memorial, a Kentucky Derby prep race. Street Life will have no problem with the Belmont distance. There is a common misperception that to win the Belmont Stakes a horse needs to be far back. This is not true. Street Life will be running late, is bred for the distance, and is fond of the Belmont Park surface, making him a factor in the Belmont Stakes. 

2. Unstoppable U (30-1) [40-1]- Unstoppable U is undefeated for trainer Ken McPeek, and jockey Junior Alvarado. Unstoppable U is taking a major step up in class. He won a maiden special weight at Aqueduct followed by an allowance win going a mile at Belmont Park. Following that wire to wire win at Belmont Park Unstoppable U is being thrown into deep water in the Belmont Stakes. Unstoppable U is going to be a factor though because he is going to go to the lead. I believe he is talented, but this race is too long for him. Unstoppable U is going to see pace pressure from Union Rags among others. Unstoppable U will have the lead for about a mile but will not be a factor when the winner crosses the finish line.

3. Union Rags (6-1) [9-2]- Union Rags has gotten himself into trouble. In his Kentucky Derby prep, the Florida Derby he never really had a chance to run and the Kentucky Derby was a complete debacle as he ended up finish seventh. Trained by Michael Matz and ridden for the first time by John Velasquez, Union Rags is in the perfect spot to get the perfect trip he has desired all year. Ideally, Union Rags will sit in a comfortable spot in second right off of Unstoppable U. This makes Union Rags the most dangerous threat to I'll Have Another's Triple Crown attempt. Union Rags has run at Belmont Park once and romped in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes as a 2 year old. Union Rags gets the services of John Velasquez who will put him in a position to win the race. Union Rags should not have a problem with the 1 1/2 distance and when they turn for home he will be the horse the rest of the field will have to catch. 

4. Atigun (30-1) [25-1]- Atigun also comes from the barn of Ken McPeek. Atigun may be the more fancied of the two. Atigun was on the Kentucky Derby trail earlier this year by way of Arkansas. Atigun was a non factor in the Rebel Stakes or the Arkansas Derby. Atigun was successful in his last start, an allowance race at Churchill Downs. The problem with Atigun is that he has struggled in high quality races, and the Belmont is certainly a high quality horse race. Atigun will be towards the back of the pack, and does not have the kick to win the race. He should be able to handle the 1 1/2 which will put him in the top half of the running order, but Atigun is not good enough to hit the board. 

5. Dullahan (5-1) [7-2]- Dullahan is widely regarded as the most likely Belmont Stakes winner if I'll Have Another falters. Dullahan seemed to prove in the Kentucky Derby that he handles dirt. Dullahan is trained by Dale Romans and will be ridden for the first time by Javier Castellano. Dullahan is a closer as well, but I expect him to be closer to I'll Have Another in the Belmont Stakes. Dullahan will have to pass both Union Rags and I'll Have Another in the Belmont, a task I do not think that he will be able to accomplish. Dullahan is fresh, and Castellano is riding better than anyone in the country, but I think Dullahan still has to prove he is a capable dirt horse away from Churchill Downs, and for this reason I will look elsewhere in the Belmont Stakes. 

6.  Ravelo's Boy (50-1) [75-1]- Ravelo's Boy comes into the Belmont Stakes off a layoff. In his last race he was a non-factor in the Tampa Bay Derby a race that has produced very little. Ravelo's Boy has been over matched in his stakes appearances and will be over matched in the Belmont Stakes. Some horses have won the Belmont Stakes unexpectedly ,but this horse would be an absolute shock. He will have the services of the veteran Alex Solis but that will not be enough to make Ravelo's Boy a factor in the third leg of the Triple Crown.

7. Five Sixteen (50-1) [50-1]- Five Sixteen will be bet below his morning line for one reason, his jockey, Rosie Napravnik, the popular female jockey. Rosie became the first female jockey to win the Kentucky Oaks five weeks ago and will attempt to become the second female jockey to win the Belmont Stakes, but it will not happen. Five Sixteen was a non-factor last time out in an Aqueduct allowance race. This race is a major step up in class, and Five Sixteen will not be up to the task. 

8. Guyana Star Dweej (50-1) [60-1]- Guyana Star Dweej is simply over matched. Guyana Star Dweej is coming out of the same allowance race Unstoppable U was victorious in. Guyana Star Dweej was not finishing particularly well when he finished second in that race. I believe the 1 ½ miles will not suit him well. The class of the race will also get in the way of Guyana Star Dweej big to win the Belmont, who is not good enough to win this race.  Guyana Star Dweej gets the services of Belmont Stakes winning jockey Kent Desormeaux, but it will not matter. 

9. Paynter (8-1) [10-1]- Paynter is trained by Bob Baffert, ridden by Mike Smith, and owned by Ahmad Zayat, the same exact connections as Bodemeister. These connections will take their third crack at I'll Have Another but this time with a different horse. Paynter comes off an easy win at Pimlico on Preakness Day. The race was visually impressive, as Paynter was too good for that field. Paynter has been unsuccessful in his two stakes tries but for good reason. Paynter stepped into the Santa Anita Derby off a maiden win and ran very well to finish fourth. Paynter then ran in the Derby Trial and ran a good second at one turn. Back to two turns at Pimlico he was dominant. Paynter is a very dangerous horse to I'll Have Another's quest simply because of his connections and the fact that he is improving every single race. Watch Out.

10. Optimizer (20-1) [15-1]- Optimizer is trained by legendary D. Wayne Lukas and will be ridden by Corey Nakatani. Optimizer has run in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes and has been a relative non-factor. Optimizer is bred to run a 1 ½  miles but the problem is he is bred to run 1 ½  on the turf. Optimizer has been relatively ineffective on the dirt and has been better on turf and synthetic. He is by English Channel who won the Breeders Cup Turf at the Belmont Distance but it was on the lawn. Optimizer will relish the distance so he will be in the top half of the race but is simply not good enough to win or even hit the board in the Belmont Stakes 

11. I'll Have Another (4-5) [1-1]-  I'll Have Another has the opportunity to make history in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday. Following thrilling victories in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, I'll Have Another is on the cusp of becoming the 12th  horse to win the Triple Crown,  and the first since 1978. I'll Have Another is trained by Doug O'Neil and ridden by the young and inexperienced Mario Gutierrez. I'll Have Another could not have drawn better in the 11 post. Gutierrez will be able to watch the race unfold to his inside and will be able to stay outside of all of the traffic. He should get a good stalking trip and turning for home will have no excuses. The question will be, can I'll Have Another catch Union Rags and Paynter, and then hold off Dullahan and Street Life? I'll Have Another will be the focal point of the nation’s attention on Saturday. He has been perfect this year, but I have yet to pick I'll Have Another in the Triple Crown and that will not change Saturday. 

12. My Adonis (20-1) [30-1]- My Adonis is an up and down sort of horse. Trained by Kelly Breen and owned by George and Lori Hall who owned Ruler on Ice the winner of the Belmont Stakes last year. My Adonis began the year by running strong races in both the Holy Bull and the Gotham Stakes, but followed that up by two disappointing efforts. My Adonis will follow I'll Have Another into position and should have a good opportunity to run. My Adonis could very well jump up and run a big race but he is too unpredictable to put my trust in. 

Selections 

1. Union Rags

2. I'll Have Another

3. Street Life

I hope I'll Have Another wins on Saturday. I will be rooting for him, but based on my knowledge I believe Union Rags will win the Belmont Stakes. 

Kentucky Derby Analysis (Horse by Horse)

The 138th running of the Kentucky Derby features morning line favorite Bodemeister, talented Union Rags, and the flashy Hansen. The Derby is always one of the hardest races of the year to predict, as the 20 three year olds cavalry charge makes traffic problems imminent. Here is a horse-by-horse analysis to hopefully improve your knowledge of every horse so that you can make a pick in this years Kentucky Derby! I ranked each horse in brackets of 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, and 16-20. At the very bottom are my final selections. 

PP  Horse Name        Odds

1. Daddy Long Legs (30-1)- Daddy Long Legs is trained by the legendary Irish trainer Aidan O' Brien, who sent the Irish horse across the pond to run in last Breeders Cup Juvenile. The race was a disaster; seeming like he never took to the dirt, Daddy Long Legs was never a factor. This year he was sent over to Dubai in his seasonal debut for the UAE Derby. This time over a synthetic surface similar to a grass racecourse Daddy Long Legs relished the ground winning the 2 million dollar race. In the Derby I will look past Daddy Long Legs due to his horrid post and dislike of the dirt surface. I will place him in my final quarter which is 16-20

2. Optimizer (50-1)- Optimizer is trained by four-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Optimizer is an inconsistent horse. Last year as a two year old he ran a very impressive second in the Breeders Futurity, but he followed that effort up with a dull performance in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. This year the pattern was similar as he ran an impressive second in the Rebel Stakes, only to follow it up with a dull 9th in the Arkansas Derby. I look for Optimizer to run better than that but I still consider him not good enough to get the job done. I will place him in the 11-15 bracket.

3. Take Charge Indy (15-1)- Take Charge Indy comes off an impressive gate to wire win in the Florida Derby defeating Union Rags. In what was only his second start of the year, Take Charge Indy took advantage of the speed bias and led all the way around the track holding off Reveron and Union Rags. Take Charge Indy benefits from a long time in between races as he showed between his seasonal bow and the Florida Derby. Calvin Borel stays aboard Take Charge Indy and because Calvin Borel is a three time Derby winner his odds will be shorter than what he should be. I believe he is peaking at the right time, but the speed bias that got him home at Gulfstream. In the Derby he will simply not be good enough to hit the board, I will put him in the 6-10 bracket.

4. Union Rags (9-2)- Union Rags is the second choice on the morning line and deservingly so. Trained by Micheal Matz of Barbaro fame, Unions Rags returned to the races this year with a smashing score in the Fountain of Youth but followed that performance up with a traffic filled dull third in the Florida Derby. Based on what he has shown in his workouts leading up to the Derby, Union Rags should be a main threat in the Derby. I love him, I think he will about 5-1 which is a great price for such a good horse. I think Union Rags certainly belongs in the 1-5 bracket.

5. Dullahan (8-1)- Dullahan comes off a win the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland last time out, but i was on a synthetic surface and the Kentucky Derby is on the dirt. Dullahan has two career wins, both Grade 1 wins on the Keeneland polytrack. His race on dirt in the Juvenile last year was just ok, as he finished fourth. He possesses a very strong closing kick and will be coming late, but I am willing to bet that his closing kick is not as powerful on dirt as it is on turf or synthetic. I am not a huge Dullahan fan and I have him in the 6-10 bracket.

6. Bodemeister (4-1)- Bodemeister is the morning line favorite coming off his dominating 9 length win in the Arkansas Derby. Trained by the red hot Bob Baffert, Bodemeister is the deserving favorite, but I see too many flaws in Bodemeister to pick him. In Bodemeister's last win in the Arkansas Derby, only two horses are coming back to run in the Kentucky Derby and both will be major longshots. I do not believe Bodemeister beat a whole lot in the Arkansas Derby. My second problem with Bodemeister is the pace scenario. Bodemeister will be part of a hot pace that will be contested by Trinniberg and Hansen. I am not convinced Bodemeister can handle this hot pace and I think the quality of the field and the pace will catch up to Bodemeister in the Derby I have him in a shock in the 11-15 bracket.

7. Rousing Sermon (50-1)- Rousing Sermon is coming off a solid third place finish in the Lousiana Derby, but the quality of the field in the Lousiana Derby is in question. Rousing Sermon ran on late to pass tired horses in the Lousiana Derby. I do not think he is good enough to be a true factor in the Kentucky Derby. He will be at the back and will make a run late but I don't think he will be good enough. I have him in the 16-20 bracket.

8. Creative Cause (12-1)- Creative Cause is the most consistent horse in the race. He has never been beaten more than a length and he has been competing at the highest level. Last time out in the Santa Anita Derby he lost to I'll Have Another (19) by just a nose. He ran extremely well at Churchill last year finishing third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Creative Cause will hit the board in the Derby, he always does. I think 12-1 presents great value and so I have Creative Cause in the 1-5 bracket.

9. Trinniberg (50-1)- Trinniberg comes into the Kentucky Derby off two fantastic wins, the problem is both of those wins come at the sprinters distance of 7 furlongs. The Kentucky Derby is 1 1/4 miles or 10 furlongs. Trinniberg has never gone a route distance or gone two turns. Trinniberg is fast, for a sprinter, which means he will be very fast for the route distance. Trinniberg will be on the lead and could present a problem for horse likes Hansen and Bodemeister. Trinniberg will be on the lead for a long time but I believe the distance will catch up to him, so I have Trinniberg in the 16-20 bracket.

10. Daddy Nose Best (15-1)- Daddy Nose Best comes off two good wins. He took the El Camino Real Derby followed by a win on conventional dirt in the Sunland Park Derby. Daddy Nose Best has been training really well and presents a major threat coming from mid-pack and closing into the fast pace. He will be ridden by Garrett Gomez who rides best when the big moment presents itself. I think the quality of the Derby might be a little too much for him though, but I do think he will fire his best shot. I have him in the 6-10 bracket.

11. Alpha (15-1)- Alpha has done nothing wrong this year, he ran a very impressive second to Gemologist (15) in the Wood Memorial. My problem with Alpha was his dismal effort last year in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I know there were excuses but I don't think Alpha will prove to be good enough to hit the board. He will improve from last year, but the fact that Ramon Dominguez is riding Hansen (14) over him and his bumpy road to the Derby I will put him in the 6-10 bracket.

12. Prospective (30-1) Prospective comes off a dissapointing effort in the Bluegrass Stakes but prior he won the Tampa Bay Derby. The problem with Prospective is that he did not beat much in the Tampa Bay Derby, and when he has been placed in top compettion he has not been a factor. He ran a horrid race last year in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I believe Prospective will be a non-factor so I will place him in the 16-20 bracket.

13. Went the Day Well (20-1)- Went the Day Well shares the exact same connections as last years Kentucky Derby Winner, Animal Kingdom. Owned by Team Valor International, trained by Graham Motion, and ridden by John Velasquez Went the Day Well will be a major player in this years Kentucky Derby. Purchased by Barry Irwin after two races in England it did not take Went the Day Well long to make an impact in the United States. After a fourth in his U.S. debut, he won a maiden race and followed it up with a smashing victory in the Vinery Racing Spiral, the same race Animal Kingdom won prior to the Derby. Went the Day Well is improving and has already won on dirt something Animal Kingdom had not yet done. I think Went the Day Well is in a position to get a perfect trip in mid pack and could be right there at the end, so I will put Went the Day Well in the 1-5 bracket.

14. Hansen (12-1)- Hansen, last year's two year old champion has one win and two seconds this year. After a loss in his seasonal debut, he rebounded with an impressive win in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct which he followed up with a second to Dullahan in the Bluegrass. Hansen is a free running colt who will be part of the pace early on. I do not think Hansen wants a mile and a quarter, the pace will be too hot with the likes of Trinniberg and Bodemeister for Hansen to stretch his speed to this distance. I think Hansen will be overbet and will end up being a non-factor so I will put him in the 11-15 bracket. 

15. Gemologist (6-1)- Gemologist is an undefeated 5 for 5. His body of work includes being undefeated at Churchill Downs and a Grade 1 win last time out in the Wood Memorial. He was only started twice this year and figures to improve again. He got a stern test last time out when Alpha tested him in mid stretch. Gemologist responded to win the Wood. Gemologist should get a really good trip sitting outside of the main speed as well as being able to see Union Rags to his inside. Gemologist's connections are the lethal combination of Javier Castellano and Todd Pletcher, which only help his cause. Gemologist’s records lands him in the 1-5 bracket. 

16. El Padrino (20-1)- El Padrino had all the hype following his gutsy Risen Star victory on the heels of his solid allowance score, but that was followed up by a dull effort in the Florida Derby. The Florida Derby fourth place effort cannot be ignored, but I still think El Padrino offers a lot of upside.  El Padrino is tough as he showed when he prevailed in the Risen Star stretch duel. He is the "Other Pletcher" which is always dangerous because Gemologist will get most of the play and El Padrino could be in a position to make a splash. I think he is a major factor and he is in the 1-5 bracket. 

17. Done Talking (50-1)- Done Talking comes off an upset win in the Illinois Derby, but he will still not gain a lot of respect as his morning line shows. He will be coming from behind like he did in the Illinois Derby. His dissapointing effort in the Gotham does not reflect on this horse who ran a very good fourth in the Remsen in his last start as a two year old. Done Talking will make a run late but I think it will be too little too late and he will finish in the 11-15 bracket. 

18. Sabercat (30-1)- Sabercat improved off his lackluster seasonal debut in the Arkansas Derby running a decent third. Sabercat won the Delta Jackpot in his two year old finale, a race that really played into his hand. I do not see him being enough of a factor to hit the board because of the quality of this race in which he might find himself over his head. I think Sabercat fits in the 11-15 bracket. 

19. I'll Have Another (12-1)- I'll Have Another has had a perfect year and has run only one bad race in his career. I'll Have Another has run well fresh in both of his starts this year, and comes into this race off only a four week rest. I'll Have Another ran a gutsy race to get up and win the Santa Anita Derby by a nose. The horse has clearly improved around two turns but I do not think he will be enough of a factor Saturday. I'll Have Another's post position does not set up well for him. I do not think he wants to drop to the back or be rushed to the front leaving him in a place where he could get caught very wide. He is a talented colt but I do not think the Derby will be his day so I will put him in the 6-10 bracket. 

20. Liaison (50-1)- Liaison has had a lackluster year. After losing his rider in the first race of the year he has continued to perform poorly in his next starts. His performance could be attributed to the Santa Anita dirt, which he did not seem to like. Liaison is scary because if he takes to the Churchill dirt he could be a factor, but based on his current form I do not think Liason will be. Liason will finish in the 16-20 bracket. 

Selections for the Kentucky Derby (Grade 1) $2,000,000

1. Union Rags

2. Went the Day Well

3. Gemologist

Creative Cause and El Padrino will not be far behind either. 

1-5 In Alphabetical Order

1. Creative Cause

2. El Padrino

3. Gemologist

4. Union Rags

5. Went the Day Well

6-10 

6. Alpha 

7. Daddy Nose Best 

8. Dullahan 

9. I'll Have Another

10. Take Charge Indy 

11-15 

11. Bodemeister

12. Done Talking

13. Hansen 

14. Optimizier

15. Sabercat

16-20

16. Daddy Long Legs 

17. Liason

18. Prospective

19. Rousing Sermon 

20. Trinniberg 

New Derby Top 20 Final List 4/26/12

1. Gemologist- This horse knows how to win, should get a great trip
2. Bodemeister- Addition of Trinniberg does not help him but he might just be the best horse
3. Daddy Nose Best- Derby is a step up but do not overlook him
4. Union Rags- He needs to run faster than he has to win the Derby and he also seems to get himself in trouble
5. Creative Cause- I am not sure why they are so reluctant for him to wear blinkers
6. I'll Have Another- He runs well fresh, but he ran big in the Santa Anita Derby and only gets a month
7. Alpha- Was never going to get by Gemologist, might be overlooked though
8. Dullahan- I am not confident in his dirt ability but I am in his 1 1/4 abiliy.
9. Went the Day Well- His dirt win was good at Gulfstream needs to step up
10. Take Charge Indy- Will need to sit right off the lead, might not be good enough
11. El Padrino- I look for him to rebound in the Derby might not be good enough to win though
12. Sabercat- Third off the layoff needs to get significantly better though
13. Hansen- I do not think he is capable of 1 1/4 and there is a lot of speed
14. Mark Valeski- Lost shoe in Louisiana Derby, needs to be better though
15. Done Talking- There is a lot of speed and he will be running late, just saying
16. Daddy Long Legs- He was never a factor in the Juvenile back on the Churchill Dirt
17. Liason- Might like the Churchill Dirt and in that case he becomes a factor but he has been bad
18. Rousing Sermon- He needs to step up will also be running late
19. Trinniberg- Will be on the gas early never been two turns won't be there at the end
20. Prospective- No Way

New Derby Top 20 4/18/2012

1. Gemologist- The horse fights hard, he is a winner, and has won at churchill
2. Bodemeister- If he runs anything like that on Derby day he will be tough
3. Daddy Nose Best- There is a lot of speed and he has Gomez
4. Union Rags- He needs to step up but the race sets up for him
5. Creative Cause- I am not sure why they are so apprehensive to put blinkers on him
6. I'll Have Another- He is 2 for 2 this year, can't blame him for that
7. Alpha- He earned my respect in the Wood but was never getting by Gemologist
8. Dullahan- He is built for the Derby Distance but I question his dirt ability
9. Went the Day Well- Flying Under the radar should love Derby Distance
10. Take Charge Indy- Improving will be off the pace in the Derby
11. Sabercat- Third off the layoff at churchill watchout
12. Hansen- If he gets 1 1/4 I will be shocked, there is a lot of speed in the race as well
13. Secret Circle- He always fires will be right off the pace
14. Daddy Long Legs- I don't particulary get it his dirt race was horrid
15. El Padrino- He is better 15 but I am not sure he will get in
16. Mark Valeski- Also on the border whether he gets in or not could be a factor though
17. Done Talking- Ran well in the Illinois Derby third off the layoff he has a chance from off the pace
18. Wrote- He has some upside if he likes the dirt.
19. Liason- He disliked the Santa Anita dirt, but does he like dirt at all
20. Prospective- Not good enough

I think Rousing Sermon will run in Snow Chief, if he chooses Derby I would put him at 18 and move Liason and Wrote back, and move Prospective out of the top 20.