138th Preakness Stakes In-Depth Horse by Horse Analysis

Preakness Stakes Preview 

The 138th running of the Preakness Stakes, the middle leg of the Triple Crown, always features the Kentucky Derby winner as the hope of the first Triple Crown winner in 35 years. This year the spotlight lands on Orb. Two weeks ago, Orb stormed home in the slop to take the 139^th running of the Kentucky Derby. While Orb will be a heavy favorite in this year’s Preakness Stakes (GI) he faces eight other horses looking to end his Triple Crown bid. Out of the nine entered in the Preakness, six come out of the Kentucky Derby, along with three newcomers to the Triple Crown series. Below is an in-depth analysis on each horse running in the 138^th Preakness Stakes. I hope to improve your knowledge of each entrant. At the very bottom are my selections. Enjoy the Preakness Stakes and good luck~  

Horse-by-Horse Preakness Stakes Analysis

PP   Horse Name     ML Odds    Corbin’s Odds

1.      Orb            1/1             2/5

Orb comes into the Preakness Stakes off a dominant win in the Kentucky Derby (GI). As the hope to be the first Triple Crown winner in 35 years, Orb will garner the majority of the attention from the public on Preakness day, and deservingly so. Orb has done nothing wrong in 2013. He is four for four this year and has won his last five starts. Orb has improved rapidly evidenced by his impressive performance in the Kentucky Derby. In the Derby, Orb handled every obstacle thrown at him, from the sloppy track to being far back early on to rally in the stretch to win. Trainer Shug McGaughey has been extremely high on Orb since his impressive Kentucky Derby triumph. Drawing the rail as the heavy favorite is not a good place to be. Rosario will have to navigate his way through the field. Orb has proved to be tactical though; in the Florida Derby he sat much closer to the pace than he did in the Kentucky Derby. I expect Rosario to be closer than he was in the Kentucky Derby, sitting off of the main speed in the race. If Orb gets a clean trip, he is by far the best horse in the race. While there are obstacles to overcome in the Preakness, bouncing back in two weeks, and drawing the rail, Orb has handled everything so far.  I expect Orb to remain undefeated in 2013, and head to Belmont Park with a chance at the Triple Crown.

2.  Goldencents         8-1       10-1

Goldencents was a non-factor in the Kentucky Derby, finishing 17^th out of 19 in the race. Ridden in the Preakness by Kevin Krigger, and trained by Doug O’Neil, Goldencents will look to bounce back from that abysmal effort. Goldencents appeared unable to handle the sloppy track or getting dirt kicked in his face at Churchill Downs.  I expect Krigger to go to the lead on Goldencents. While I believe Goldencents will run much better than he did in Louisville two weeks ago, I still believe the distance of 13/16 miles will be too long. I look for Goldencents to run well but he will not be good enough to win the Preakness Stakes.

3.  Titletown Five   30-1     45-1

Titletown Five is the first of the newcomers in the Preakness. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by Julien Leparoux, Titletown Five comes into the Preakness Stakes off a fourth place finish in the Derby Trial (GIII) at Churchill Downs three weeks ago. In the one mile Derby Trial, Titletown Five pressed the pace early and faded late. I look for a similar result in the Preakness. In Titletown Five’s only start around two turns, he finished ninth in the Louisiana Derby (GII). I expect Titletown Five and Goldencents to be battling for the lead early, and this will take a toll on both of them. I believe Titletown Five will be a non-factor on Saturday.

4. Departing    6-1      9/2

Departing, trained by Al Stall Jr. and ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr, comes into the Preakness Stakes off a dominating victory in the Illinois Derby (GIII) four weeks ago.  Following the race Stall elected to skip the Kentucky Derby and point to the Preakness. Departing may be the biggest threat to Orb. The gelding is four for five lifetime with his only loss coming in the Louisiana Derby (GII). In that race Departing did not have the best trip, and still was able to beat Golden Soul, who ran second in the Kentucky Derby. Following the Louisiana Derby, Departing dismantled an overmatched field in the Illinois Derby. Departing is coming into the Preakness fresh, and is talented enough to have a say in the outcome of the Preakness. I look for Departing to be close to Orb the entire way around the track, as they have similar running styles. While I do not believe Departing is fast enough to defeat Orb, I fully expect Departing to hit the board on Saturday.

5.  Mylute   5-1    8-1

Mylute comes into the Preakness Stakes off a solid fifth place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Ridden by Rosie Napravnik and trained by Tom Amoss, Mylute was taken well off the pace early on in the Derby and made a strong late move. Mylute should benefit from the slight cutback in distance, but I still believe, as I did in the Kentucky Derby that he is not good enough to win.  Mylute had everything his own way, he handled the sloppy track, and had a very fast pace in front of him, but still he was not able to close fast enough to win. He will not be able to pass horses like Orb, Departing or Itsmyluckyday late in the Preakness so I do not expect Mylute to hit the board on Saturday,

6. Oxbow  15-1   15-1

Oxbow comes into the Preakness Stakes off a sixth place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by Gary Stevens, Oxbow ran a deceptively good race in the Derby. Chasing the fast early pace Oxbow made a minor move at the top of the stretch only to fade late. While he did not make a huge impact, he was the only horse to be part of the early pace to run well. Oxbow should get a good trip sitting right off of Goldencents and Titletown Five. While he should have a chance to win at the top of the stretch, I believe he is not quite talented enough to hit the board, but I expect another solid effort.

7. Will Take Charge 12-1   20-1

Will Take Charge, the third horse trained by D. Wayne Lukas finished eighth in the Kentucky Derby. Will Take Charge was making a solid move, right alongside Orb when he ran into traffic trouble. Ridden by Jon Court in the Derby, Will Take Charge will now be ridden by Mike Smith. I expect this horse to be over bet on Saturday, because he was stopped badly and many people will expect more.  I liked him in the Derby, but I am not as enthusiastic about him here. He will struggle coming back in two weeks as he ran really hard in the Derby, and he has not yet put two strong races together in a row.  I expect Will Take Charge to finish towards the back of the pack on Saturday.

8. Governor Charlie 12-1    20-1

Governor Charlie, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia, comes into the Preakness Stakes off a win in the Sunland Derby (GIII). However, the Sunland Derby was eight weeks ago. Governor Charlie was aimed to the Kentucky Derby, but had foot problems forcing him to miss the race. There are too many issues with Governor Charlie for him to win the Preakness. He has not run in eight weeks and he has missed training because of the foot issues. He has been playing catch-up, which is not the way a horse should be coming into a classic race. Lastly, he has only started three times, and never against horses of this quality. Governor Charlie, will be over bet because Bob Baffert trains him. I strongly dislike Governor Charlie in the Preakness Stakes.

9. Itsmyluckyday 10-1   8-1

Itsmyluckyday comes into the Preakness off of a 15^th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Trained by Eddie Plesa Jr. and ridden in the Preakness by John Velasquez, Itsmyluckyday appeared to not handle the track well at Churchill Downs. Since his impressive win in the Holy Bull Stakes (GIII) at Gulfstream Park, Itsmyluckyday has been relatively disappointing. I expected a huge performance in the Kentucky Derby, but he did not fire. Itsmyluckyday had a strong workout on Sunday at Monmouth Park, evidence he has rebounded from his disappointing performance at Churchill Downs. I like the jockey change from Elvis Trujillo to hall of famer John Velasquez. Velasquez should navigate a good trip from right off the pace, and I expect a big effort from Itsmyluckyday on a fast track on Saturday.

 Selections

1.  Orb 

2. Itsmyluckyday 

3. Departing

Longshot

Oxbow 

Gulfstream Stakes races 2/11/12

GulfStream Park 2012




Gulfstream Park is host to a phenomenal day of racing on Saturday. Headlined by the return of Shackelford, Ruler On Ice, the emergence of Trickmeister, and the dangerous Flat Out, making the Donn the race of the year so far. The Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap follows the Donn, another field that is loaded with talent, the race features Silver Medallion winner of two in a row, Boisterous, who is always dangerous especially on the cut back, and the always consistent Smart Bid. The Hutchenson features the talented Ever So Lucky who towers over the field talent wise but there are questions on whether or not he will run.



The Hutcheson, a 7 furlong race on the main track is all about Ever So Lucky, if he runs the race he is supposed to he is head and shoulders better than the rest. His only one turn race was phenomenal, and the cut back in distance first, off the layoff should benefit him. This field does not provide a standout past Ever So Lucky. ll Villano may be the next best shot. He ran a respectable race to Alpha who returned to the win the Withers Stakes last weekend. The cut back in distance may benefit him as well. ll Villano is quick; he will be pressing the pace if not on it. The rest of the field is taking a major step up in class. Thunder Moccasin will be the other major threat to Ever So Lucky. In his first and only start he beat a good group of maidens, this is a step up in class, that on Saturday he may find difficult. Dale Romans trains two entered in the race and I favor Tarpy’s Goal over Quick Wit. Tarpy’s Goal ran very well last time out and I expect him to be a factor. Selections

1. Ever So Lucky

2. ll Villano

3. Tarpy’s Goal



The Donn Handicap has the potential to be a key race for the rest of the year in the older division. The race starts with Preakness Winner Shackelford, who returns for the first time since his tenacious effort in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. Shackelford, aside from the Travers flop, shows up every time. His last try at 1 mile and 1/8 on the Gulfstream surface he got nailed at the wire in the Florida Derby. Shackelford will be on the pace, he will be fresh and I think he will run a big race first off the bench. I do not think he will win, but he is as gritty as they come and he will be in with a big shot at the eighth pole. Ruler on Ice also makes his first start since the Breeders Cup. Ruler on Ice ran a very credible race in the Classic picking up the pieces late to finish third. My problem with Ruler on Ice is that he always seems to pass tired horses to end up finishing in the money. I think against a field as talented as this Ruler On Ice may be up against it. The distance may actually be a little too short for the gelding whose biggest win came In the Belmont Stakes. Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount, and no one has been riding better than her, but even Rosie will not get Ruler on Ice to the winner’s circle Saturday. Next comes Flat Out. His turf experiment last time was an absolute disaster. The big question with Flat Out is can he duplicate his performances in New York to other tracks. I think Flat Out may even be better at one turn, something that has only been explored at Belmont. Hopefully he will be considered for races such as the Metropolitan Mile down the road. Until I see him run a credible race outside of New York, I cannot see Flat Out being a real factor in this race. The race turns to the Richard Dutrow Jr. pair Trickmeister and Redeemed, Trickmeister being the more highly touted of the two. Trickmeister has done nothing wrong in his short career, as he is easily undefeated, but soundness problems have caused him to run sparingly. He will see a tougher field Saturday than he has ever seen before, and we will learn a lot about Trickmeister very shortly. Redeemed is a solid racehorse but I am not sure if he is up to the task. He is consistent so he may be there. My selection in the Donn is Sangaree, which is a little bit of a reach. Sangaree has yet to break through at the highest level but I think Saturday is his day. His last race was very good, and his two turn race against Rule at Saratoga was really strong. I think with the perfect trip he could inherit the lead late. Mission Impazible is always a threat but he never seems to get there, the pace should be hot and he will be a part of that, and I expect him to fade late. The rest of the field includes Soaring Empire, who does not want two turns, Hymn Book who is a cut below this field, and Where’s Sterling who like Hymn Book, is up against it class wise.

Selections-

1. Sangaree

2. Shackelford

3. Trickmeister



The Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap is an evenly matched race, and it starts with Silver Medallion. Silver Medallion’s last two races were very impressive. He will be flying late, and should get pace to run at. The question regarding Silver Medallion is whether or not he is good enough to win this race, although he has been beating a few of these. One of the horses Silver Medallion has beaten twice in a row is Hollinger, Hollinger is consistent but does not find the winner circle often. He will need a very large effort to turn the tables on Silver Medallion. I do not see it happening. I believe Big Blue Kitten is a major player in this race. Big Blue Kitten’s only two losses were his debut, and his last start which was his first start off a layoff. In between those two races Big Blue Kitten was five for five including a grade 2 victory at Saratoga. His return to the races was encouraging, and I am looking for him to run a huge race Saturday. Yummy With Butter is a very solid grass horse, he will be on or near the lead, but I do not think he is good enough to win this race. Boisterous will receive a lot of play Saturday, and for good reason. Boisterous has won two graded races in a row, and could improve with the cut back in distance. He has tried grade 1 company before, and has been unsuccessful, but Saturday may be his day. Yankee Fortune is intriguing because this will be his third start off the layoff. His last race was good, Little Mike who defeated him came back to win. Yankee Fortune could be a serious player to finish in the money. Get Stormy is always good, aside from his Breeders Cup performances Get Stormy is always a contender. He almost won this race last year, and is proven at the distance. He should get a great trip either on the lead or sitting right off Yummy With Butter. I think he may need this race though but look to him to run very well for trainer Thomas Bush. Kindergarden Kid is a good horse but simply not good enough to win the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. Smart Bid is dangerous. Smart Bid will get a picture perfect trip. He will sit right off Get Stormy and Yummy With Butter and could inherit the lead late. Smart Bid was a nose away from winning this race last year and a fresh Smart Bid could produce big things Saturday. The last horse in the race is Al Khali who is a solid horse but I think he wants more distance. Making selections in this race was very difficult because all the horses are so even but here they are.



1. Big Blue Kitten

2. Smart Bid

3. Yankee Fortune

4. Get Stormy