141st Kentucky Derby Top 20 List

With the Kentucky Derby just 88 days away, the list of horses injured and off of the Triple Crown trail has begun to grow. Just last week Calculator (#8), Leave the Light On (#11), and the talented sprinter Barbados have been ruled out of Triple Crown contention because of various injuries.

In the Kentucky Derby prep races last week the lightly raced Ocean Knight remained undefeated in a gutsy victory in the Sam F. Davis (GIII) at Tampa Bay Downs and Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red (#1) made a strong return to the races finishing second in the 7F San Vicente Stakes (GII) to Lord Nelson at San Anita Park.

This coming week features two prep races both worth 10 points to the winner, the GIII Withers Stakes at Aqueduct and the GII Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita which features Dortmund and Firing Line.  Read below to find out my Kentucky Derby Top 20 list.

#1. Texas Red- This big colt by Afleet Alex made his 2015 debut last week sprinting at Santa Anita in the GII San Vicente Stakes, and ended up a very impressive second. Although he did not win his performance off the layoff and not at his optimal distance only strengthened his resume as the #1 horse going forward.

#2. Imperia- The only development since last week regarding this colt is top jockey Mike Smith will climb aboard this colt in the GII Risen Star Stakes (2/21) at the Fair Grounds when Imperia makes his 2015 debut.

#3. Upstart- This Rick Violette trainee ran a monster Beyer Speed Figure number of 105 in his GII Holy Bull win, but he seems to have come out of the race well, and if he improves off that effort he is very dangerous down the road.

#4. Dortmund-  This Bob Baffert trainee make his 2015 debut Saturday in the GII Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and coming off a narrow win at Los Alamitos, where many blamed the tight turns on the close margin of victory, it will be interesting to see how he fairs back at Santa Anita.

#5. American Pharaoh- Another colt trained by Bob Baffert, I have moved American Pharaoh to #5 because in the last week he has returned to the work tab. This could be the most talented colt of his generation, and if everything continues to go well, he will continue to rise.

#6. Frosted- I still believe Frosted is a colt, and he should grow with every start. In his last two starts there have still been signs of him being green, and with a more mature performance he could really put all the pieces together.

#7. Carpe Diem- This is a really nice colt that had a very tough time of it in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and he actually rallied to defeat Upstart in there. He should only improve with the distance, and a better trip.

#8. Prospect Park- Not even in the Top 20 last week, Prospect Park earned his way onto the list with a very impressive allowance score last week at Santa Anita. He defeated some promising colts and did it nicely, he is expected to try tougher company next time out.

#9. El Kabeir- He is the big name in this week's Withers Stakes (GIII) at Aqueduct and should be a pretty heavy favorite. He has matured significantly in his last two starts and it will be interesting if that upward trend continues on Saturday.

#10 Firing Line- He takes on Dortmund Saturday and with an a strong effort could find himself much higher on the list, but for now I want to see another strong effort like the one at Los Alamitos last out.

11. Ocean Knight
12. Competitive Edge
13. International Star
14. Lord Nelson
15. Daredevil
16. Divining Rod
17. Far Right
18. Tiznow R J
19. Ocho Ocho Ocho
20. J S Bach

141st Kentucky Derby Top 20 List

With the Kentucky Derby 95 days away, and the prep races well under way, it is time for my first Kentucky Derby top 20 list. An impressive list of three year old colts are being point to the First Saturday in May, led by 2014 Breeders Cup Juvenile (GI) winner Texas Red, American Pharaoh the Eclipse Award champion, and Upstart a very impressive winner this past weekend, and the undefeated Dortmund. Read below to know my Top 20 horses for the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby.

1. Texas Red- Won the biggest race for 2yo's in 2014 in impressive fashion, love how he covers the ground. The way he dominated last out indicates he is a special colt.

2. Imperia- Fired a strong second in his first try on dirt in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stk (GII) at Churchill Downs. He really should only improve with added dirt experience, and is certainly bred well enough.

3. Upstart- Talented colt could not have been more impressive in saturday's Holy Bull (GII) at Gulfstream Park. He should only improve off that effort and will be extremely dangerous down the road.

4. Dortmund- This undefeated colt for trainer Bob Baffert has done nothing wrong to this point. I am just skeptical of the quality of the Los Alamitos Futurity, in which he needed everything he had to win.

5. Frosted- Stablemate of Imperia has strung together two solid second place finishes in graded company in his last two outings. I believe he is extremely talented and is capable against any of these.

6. American Pharaoh- The 2yo Eclipse Award champion is just getting underway after an injury knocked him out of the Breeders Cup. He would be much higher on this list if not for the injury.

7. Carpe Diem- This horse did not have an easy trip in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (GI) as one of the favorites. He has proven he is talented and this Grade 1 winner is still very much a contender.

8. Calculator- This colt broke his maiden in a stakes race last time out in the Sham Stakes (G3) impressively at Santa Anita. Prior to that he chased American Pharoah and Texas Red around but seemed matured and improved last time out against a relatively weak field.

9. El Kabeir- This John Terranova trainee has improved in his last two winning the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stk. as Churchill and followed that performance up by dominating a weak field in the GII Jerome at Aqueduct. Defeated #2 Imperia at Churchill, but believe it was biased aided.

10. Firing Line- Was just beaten by Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity (GI), and was arguably better. I do want to see him repeat that effort, but he could quickly rise up with a good effort.

11. Leave the Light On
12. Daredevil
13. International Star
14. Mr. Z
15. Far Right
16. Tiznow R J
17. Competitive Edge
18. J S Bach
19. Ocho Ocho Ocho
20. Bluegrass Singer

Kentucky Derby 140 Top 20 #4

After a few weeks off due to travel and exams, I am updating my Kentucky Derby Top 20. The biggest news since the last list is that Honor Code, the former number 1, was first defeated in his return to the races and then was removed from the Kentucky Derby trail with a suspensory injury. Last week, We Miss Artie captured the GIII Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park in a thrilling stretch run to punch his hole to the Kentucky Derby, as did Chitu who captured the GIII Sunland Derby.

This upcoming week features three huge races leading to the Kentucky the GI Florida Derby, the GII Louisiana Derby, and the GI UAE Derby in Dubai. Surely following this week there will be plenty of shake up in the list.

Kentucky Derby Top 20 3/26/2014

1. Intense Holiday- Number 1 by default after defections of Honor Code and Top Billing, but runs in Louisiana Derby this weekend.
2. Cairo Prince- Runs in Florida Derby on Saturday against a very talented field, but does not need to win, will most likely be number 1 next week. McLaughlin seems very confident.
3. California Chrome- Super impressive in San Felipe, and future wager favorite, but still want to see him tested.
4. Samraat- Last round of prep races key for all of these, but undefeated New York bred will be tested again in the Wood Memorial.
5. Hoppertunity- Ran huge in the Rebel, proving he can run with top guns, should only improve.
6. Tapiture- Had a bad trip in the Rebel and still ran very big, and he always fires, I just believe Hoppertunity has a higher ceiling.
7. In Trouble- Entered in Louisiana Derby, will go either there or in the Wood Memorial, he should improve in either race he runs in.
8. Social Inclusion- Crushed Honor Code and run huge Beyer, but I still have questions, especially if he is headed.
9. Candy Boy- Has not run in a long time and the Santa Anita Derby will be a giant test for him
10. Ring Weekend- Will take the Calder Derby path, unusual but could be very effective for the speedy gelding
11. Uncle Sigh
12. Bobby's Kitten
13. General a Rod
14. Wildcat Red
15. Chitu
16. Ride on Curlin
17. Albano
18. Vicar's in Trouble
19. We miss Artie
20. Tonalist

Kentucky Derby 140 Top 20 #3

This week will see the biggest shake up so far in the Derby Top 20. The largest change comes with the news that last weeks number 1, Top Billing has been injured and is off the Kentucky Derby Trail. That leaves a major void on the derby trail, but there were many impressive performances this week. In the GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita California Chrome destroyed the field, stamping himself as the top contender in California. In Florida, Ring Weekend threw his name into the hat of contenders by running the field in the Tampa Bay Derby off their feet in an impressive score. This weekend the only major Derby prep occurs in Arkansas for the GII Rebel S. which is expected to feature major Derby contenders Tapiture, Kobe's Back and Strong Mandate. Another race of interest is the 8th race on Wednesday at Gulfstream Park an allowance race which features the return of Honor Code in his first race of 2014.

Kentucky Derby Top 20 3/11/14

1. Honor Code- Jumps to number 1, because I like the spot McGaughey found for 2014 return
2. Intense Holiday- Still a believer in this horse, just could not put him at number 1 just yet
3. Cairo Prince- Haven't cooled on him either, but is still weeks away until the Florida Derby
4. California Chrome- By far the biggest jump because his victory this past weekend was VERY impressive, took pressure and kicked on he is a serious contender
5. Samraat- Honor Code is expected to be pointed to Wood Memorial, will be a huge test for this horse
6. In Trouble- Not ready to move him down yet, I was wowed by his grit first time off the layoff
7. Strong Mandate- Rebel this weekend will sort out the charge from Arkansas
8. Tapiture- Will likely be favorite in the Rebel off of his Southwest victory
9. Candy Boy- Santa Anita Derby test vs. California Chrome will really tell how good he is
10. Ring Weekend- Not sure what he beat but he crushed them, very impressively at that
11. Uncle Sigh
12. General a Rod
13. Wildcat Red
14. Bayern
15. Mexikoma
16. Kobe's Back
17. Hoppertunity
18. Midnight Hawk
19. Conquest Titan
20. Albano

Kentucky Derby 140 Top 20 #2

The major Kentucky Derby prep race last weekend took place at Aqueduct in the GIII $500,000 Gotham Stakes. The top three finishers of the the thrilling race are all expected to return in the Grade I Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. This upcoming weekend features the GII Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs, and the GII San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, both should have a profound impact on the road to the Kentucky Derby. This week on my Top 20 list, the biggest jump will be made by In Trouble, who ran a gutsy third in the Gotham off a significant layoff, I look for him to improve significantly in the Wood Memorial. I have removed Shared Belief from the list, because I have not seen enough in terms of work that would give him a realistic shot of making the Kentucky Derby, especially with 0 points. Havana has also been removed due to his battle with a quarter crack forcing him out of the GII Swale Stakes at Gulfstream last weekend.

Kentucky Derby Top 20 3/4/2014

1. Top Billing- Still believe he is a true Derby horse, hope he gets away from Gulfstream
2. Intense Holiday- Distance will not be a problem, Risen Star victory impresses me every time I watch it
3. Honor Code- Has some points from two year old season, but a first or second in the Rebel would leave McGaughey with more options down the road.
4. Cairo Prince- Purchased by Godolphin, which seems to be an encouraging sign
5. Samraat- Remained undefeated in gutsy Gotham victory, love his tactical speed.
6. In Trouble- Absolutely loved his Gotham performance, off the layoff down on the inside never gave in, should only improve off of that effort.
7. Strong Mandate- Rebel will be a serious test, whether he is worthy of this spot.
8. Tapiture- Perfect trip in Southwest led to victory, but it was a good performance
9. Candy Boy- Best 3yo on West Coast as of now, San Felipe should be tougher test
10. Uncle Sigh- I am a big believe in the Gotham, which could come back to bite me, but these are tough horses.
11. Bayern
12. Conquest Titan
13. Mexikoma
14. General A Rod
15. Wildcat Red
16. California Chrome
17. Kobe's Back
18. Albano
19. Midnight Hawk
20. Chitu

Kentucky Derby 140 Top 20 #1

The first major round of prep races took place last weekend, and with that it is time for my initial top 20 for the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby Top 20 2/24/2014

1. Top Billing-Really impressed me in FOY against a strong bias should move forward
2. Intense Holiday- Loved his Risen Star victory, closed relentlessly distance will not be a problem
3. Honor Code- Reports are he is working well, clearly very talented.
4. Cairo Prince- Holy Bull win was impressive, but I don't like the 9 week break prior to Fla. Derby
5. Strong Mandate- Had a very wide trip in Southwest and showed new dimension sitting off, should only improve off that effort.
6. Samraat- Huge fan of his, Gotham HUGE test this weekend
7. Tapiture- Ran huge in the Southwest, but had a perfect trip, expect tougher test in the Rebel
8. Candy Boy- Professional in most recent win, but not sure about the quality of the field.
9. Tonalist- Serious contender in the final round of prep races, taken out of his element in last start, a real threat to improve.
10. Bayern- Really powerful allowance win tested in next
11. Shared Belief
12. Conquest Titan
13. Mexikoma
14. General a Rod
15. Wildcat Red
16. California Chrome
17. Havana
18. Albano
19. Hoppertunity
20. Commissioner

Kentucky Derby Top 20 #5

The last edition of the Kentucky Derby Top 20 was prior to the Louisiana Derby, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, and Santa Anita Derby. There is plenty of shake-up this week. With the impressive performances by Revolutionary, Orb, Verrazano, and Goldencents, and the unfortunate defections of Flashback and Hear the Ghost we are reminded of the roller coaster that is the Kentucky Derby trail.

Kentucky Derby Top 20

1. Verrazano- Re-watched his Wood Memorial performance, it was really good, he is the horse to beat. 

2. Revolutionary- I had him number 1 but Castellano jumping ship was a major factor and moved him down one. 

3. Orb- He was impressive in his Florida Derby win, but the race was slow. 

4. Normandy Invasion- He ran well in the Wood, he is going to be bet down on the first Saturday in May

5. Oxbow- I like this horse a lot, he always fires. A good effort in the Arkansas Derby bumps him up

6. Goldencents- Great performance in 9 furlong SA Derby, with 105 Beyer he is a danger, but 10 furlongs is a MAJOR question 

7. It'smyluckyday- Florida Derby was essentially a race off the layoff, so he may improve on Derby day, but I do not think he is good enough to win

8. Vyjack- He had every chance to get by Verrazano, distance is a question. 

9. Mylute- Had every chance to get by Revolutionary, distance a major question.

10. Will Take Charge- Yet to put two races together but coming into the Derby fresh may be to his benefit 

11. Governor Charlie- Moves up because he has the points, Sunland Derby field was weak

12. Java's War- Has every chance to move up with good effort in the Bluegrass 

13. Black Onyx- He is in, and he is consistent 

14. War Academy- Time for him to step up in Arkansas Derby 

15. Den's Legacy- Needs a big effort, to stay in the hunt in the Arkansas Derby 

16. Lines Of Battle- He is in the Derby for O'Brien, hopefully runs better than Daddy Long Legs

17. Uncaptured- Ran well off the layoff in the Spiral, may be favorite in Bluegrass

18. Overanalyze- Needs to rebound in a HUGE way in Arkansas Derby to stay on this list

19. Falling Sky- He has run well in every start this year, may be overmatched 

20. Departing- If he gets in, he is dangerous