With the Kentucky Derby just 88 days away, the list of horses injured and off of the Triple Crown trail has begun to grow. Just last week Calculator (#8), Leave the Light On (#11), and the talented sprinter Barbados have been ruled out of Triple Crown contention because of various injuries.
In the Kentucky Derby prep races last week the lightly raced Ocean Knight remained undefeated in a gutsy victory in the Sam F. Davis (GIII) at Tampa Bay Downs and Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red (#1) made a strong return to the races finishing second in the 7F San Vicente Stakes (GII) to Lord Nelson at San Anita Park.
This coming week features two prep races both worth 10 points to the winner, the GIII Withers Stakes at Aqueduct and the GII Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita which features Dortmund and Firing Line. Read below to find out my Kentucky Derby Top 20 list.
#1. Texas Red- This big colt by Afleet Alex made his 2015 debut last week sprinting at Santa Anita in the GII San Vicente Stakes, and ended up a very impressive second. Although he did not win his performance off the layoff and not at his optimal distance only strengthened his resume as the #1 horse going forward.
#2. Imperia- The only development since last week regarding this colt is top jockey Mike Smith will climb aboard this colt in the GII Risen Star Stakes (2/21) at the Fair Grounds when Imperia makes his 2015 debut.
#3. Upstart- This Rick Violette trainee ran a monster Beyer Speed Figure number of 105 in his GII Holy Bull win, but he seems to have come out of the race well, and if he improves off that effort he is very dangerous down the road.
#4. Dortmund- This Bob Baffert trainee make his 2015 debut Saturday in the GII Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and coming off a narrow win at Los Alamitos, where many blamed the tight turns on the close margin of victory, it will be interesting to see how he fairs back at Santa Anita.
#5. American Pharaoh- Another colt trained by Bob Baffert, I have moved American Pharaoh to #5 because in the last week he has returned to the work tab. This could be the most talented colt of his generation, and if everything continues to go well, he will continue to rise.
#6. Frosted- I still believe Frosted is a colt, and he should grow with every start. In his last two starts there have still been signs of him being green, and with a more mature performance he could really put all the pieces together.
#7. Carpe Diem- This is a really nice colt that had a very tough time of it in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, and he actually rallied to defeat Upstart in there. He should only improve with the distance, and a better trip.
#8. Prospect Park- Not even in the Top 20 last week, Prospect Park earned his way onto the list with a very impressive allowance score last week at Santa Anita. He defeated some promising colts and did it nicely, he is expected to try tougher company next time out.
#9. El Kabeir- He is the big name in this week's Withers Stakes (GIII) at Aqueduct and should be a pretty heavy favorite. He has matured significantly in his last two starts and it will be interesting if that upward trend continues on Saturday.
#10 Firing Line- He takes on Dortmund Saturday and with an a strong effort could find himself much higher on the list, but for now I want to see another strong effort like the one at Los Alamitos last out.
11. Ocean Knight
12. Competitive Edge
13. International Star
14. Lord Nelson
15. Daredevil
16. Divining Rod
17. Far Right
18. Tiznow R J
19. Ocho Ocho Ocho
20. J S Bach
Showing posts with label Graham Motion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Graham Motion. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 3, 2015
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Kentucky Derby Top 20 #4
There will be minimal shake up in the top 10 this week in response to this weeks Sprial Stakes at Turfway Park and the Sunland Derby at Sunland Park, both worth 50 points. The Spiral was won by Black Onyx a horse who has seemed to improve on the turf and polytrack. Governor Charlie took down the 50 point of the Sunland Derby, against a relatively weak field.
Thursday will be this years first edition of stakes selections from around the world. The Dubai World Cup card, the Louisiana Derby card, and The Florida Derby card will all be covered.
Kentucky Derby Top 20
1. Verrazano- Heavily anticipated matchup with Vyjack upcoming in Wood Memorial
2. Orb- Runs into Shanghai Bobby in the Florida Derby this week, need to see a strong effort
3. Flashback- He gets a mulligan in the Santa Anita Derby, and he gets Garrett Gomez
4. Vyjack- Needs to run close to Verrazano in the Wood Memorial to hold this spot
5. It'smyluckyday- Shows down with Shanghai Bobby and Orb in the Florida Derby
6. Hear the Ghost- He received a very nice setup in the San Felipe
7. Shanghai Bobby- Still believe he will win the Florida Derby
8. Oxbow- This horse always fires, so he moves up a spot
9. Palice Malice- Needs to show who he is in the Louisiana Derby
10. Revolutionary- Moved down because upon reflection Withers field was weak
11. Will Take Charge- Not going to knock the Rebel winner, but he needs to put two races together
12. Java's War- New on the list, once McPeek chose the Bluegrass over Dubai he was added
13. Normandy Invasion- He needs to run very well in the Wood Memorial just to get in
14. Goldencents- He should not be forgotten, the San Felipe speed duel was a disaster for him
15. Den's Legacy- Like Oxbow he always fires, he just is not as talented.
16. Black Onyx- He seems to be a poly/turf horse, but he has also fired almost every time
17. Governor Charlie- He has the 50 points, so he needs to be on the list
18. War Academy- He is going to get one chance to get in, but he is talented
19. Mr. Palmer- His win at Laurel was impressive, but the Wood is a very tough race
20. Super Ninety Nine- Needs to run top two in Santa Anita Derby to get in
Thursday will be this years first edition of stakes selections from around the world. The Dubai World Cup card, the Louisiana Derby card, and The Florida Derby card will all be covered.
Kentucky Derby Top 20
1. Verrazano- Heavily anticipated matchup with Vyjack upcoming in Wood Memorial
2. Orb- Runs into Shanghai Bobby in the Florida Derby this week, need to see a strong effort
3. Flashback- He gets a mulligan in the Santa Anita Derby, and he gets Garrett Gomez
4. Vyjack- Needs to run close to Verrazano in the Wood Memorial to hold this spot
5. It'smyluckyday- Shows down with Shanghai Bobby and Orb in the Florida Derby
6. Hear the Ghost- He received a very nice setup in the San Felipe
7. Shanghai Bobby- Still believe he will win the Florida Derby
8. Oxbow- This horse always fires, so he moves up a spot
9. Palice Malice- Needs to show who he is in the Louisiana Derby
10. Revolutionary- Moved down because upon reflection Withers field was weak
11. Will Take Charge- Not going to knock the Rebel winner, but he needs to put two races together
12. Java's War- New on the list, once McPeek chose the Bluegrass over Dubai he was added
13. Normandy Invasion- He needs to run very well in the Wood Memorial just to get in
14. Goldencents- He should not be forgotten, the San Felipe speed duel was a disaster for him
15. Den's Legacy- Like Oxbow he always fires, he just is not as talented.
16. Black Onyx- He seems to be a poly/turf horse, but he has also fired almost every time
17. Governor Charlie- He has the 50 points, so he needs to be on the list
18. War Academy- He is going to get one chance to get in, but he is talented
19. Mr. Palmer- His win at Laurel was impressive, but the Wood is a very tough race
20. Super Ninety Nine- Needs to run top two in Santa Anita Derby to get in
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
Kentucky Oaks Day Picks 5/4/2012
The Kentucky Oaks is the feature on the Friday card at Churchill downs. The undercard is headlined by a fantastic race in the American Turf and the Alysheba for older males, as wel last the La Troienne featuring Plum Pretty. My selections for the stakes race on Kentucky Oaks day are below!!
Race 6 The La Troienne (Grade II) $300,000
1. Plum Pretty
2. Absinthe Minded
3. Juanita
In the La Troienne the first graded stakes races on the friday card will have the shortest priced favorite in Plum Pretty. Plum Pretty won her first race of the year in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn and the going does not get much tougher today. She will be an overwhelming and deservingly so. She is 1 for 1 over the Churchill surface with that win coming in the Kentucky Oaks. I will be shocked if she losesm and I am making Plum Pretty my top selection. Absinthe Minded can always jump up and give a big effort and I will look for a good effort on Friday but not good enough to beat Plum Pretty.
Race 7 The Eight Belles (Grade III) $100,000
1. Small Kitchen
2. Contested
3. Good Deed
The Eight Belles is an interesting race becasue Small Kitchen is cutting back to one turn following a lackluster effort around two turns. I think she is the most talented runner in the field and I look for her to rebound. Bob Baffert could not be hotter and I think Contested will be right there at the wire.
Race 8 The Edgewood $150,000
1. Disposablepleasure (12-1) ML
2. Stephanie's Kitten
3. More than Love
The Edgewood for three year old fillies on the turf features Stephanie's Kitten who was a dissapointing third last time out in the Ashland at Keeneland. This race for her serves as a prep for the Coronation at Royal Ascot in June. She is the class of the race but I believe the riders will target her in the race based on her Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf win last year. Disposablepleasure tries turf on friday and I will believe she will take to the grass and defeat Stephanie's Kitten who I think could run into traffic.
Race 9 The Alysheba Stakes (Grade II) $300,000
1. Mucho Macho Man
2. Boxeur De Reus (30-1)
3. Succesful Dan
The Alysheba is a very compettive race and features Mucho Macho Man who is one of the top older males in training this year and Succesful Dan who returend at Keeneland with an impressive win. I think it will take Succesful Dan one more start to return to this level of compettion and Mucho Macho Man is the horse to beat. Mucho Macho Man ran a very solid third last year in the Kentucky Derby showing his affinity for the Churchill surface. He has run two impressive races this year and I think he will continue his roll in the Alysheba. Boxeur de Reus ran a decent race last time out in the Santa Anita Handicap and I think he could hit the board at a big price for O'Neil and Guttierez a preview of the Derby. I think Succesful Dan will run his race but this is a quick turnaround and might need this race.
Race 10 The American Turf (Grade II) $200,000
1. Howe Great
2. Gung Ho
3. Star Channel
The American Turf is for three year old males on the turf and for me the race starts with Howe Great. Even though he is in the 14 post position he has never lost on grass and until he does I am not going to pick against him. The race is filled with speed which does not set up for Silver Max who won the Transylvania last time out gate to wire. I like Gung Ho to come running late but I think Howe Great will have the jump turning for home.
Race 11 The Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) $1,000,000
1. Hard Not To Like (20-1)
2. Grace Hall
3. On Fire Baby
This year I beleive the Kentucky Oaks is a wide open race and for that reason I like the three year old filly named Hard Not To Like. I was very encouraged by her last race which was her first race off a decent layoff. I am willing to take the risk that she will take to the dirt because if she does she will be right there at the wire. I love her at what should be a price well over 15-1. Grace Hall is as consistent as they come, she has has never run a bad race and I look for that to continue on Friday, but I do not know if she will get a great trip. I think she is too good to not hit the board but I will pick against her. On Fire Baby has done nothing wrong on conventional dirt but I think the compettion might catch up to her a bit on Friday, she will be close but I think she will get caught late. The Oaks is a strong deep field and really any of them could win it, but I love the canadian filly to make a splash in the Oaks its Hard Not to Like her.
Race 6 The La Troienne (Grade II) $300,000
1. Plum Pretty
2. Absinthe Minded
3. Juanita
In the La Troienne the first graded stakes races on the friday card will have the shortest priced favorite in Plum Pretty. Plum Pretty won her first race of the year in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn and the going does not get much tougher today. She will be an overwhelming and deservingly so. She is 1 for 1 over the Churchill surface with that win coming in the Kentucky Oaks. I will be shocked if she losesm and I am making Plum Pretty my top selection. Absinthe Minded can always jump up and give a big effort and I will look for a good effort on Friday but not good enough to beat Plum Pretty.
Race 7 The Eight Belles (Grade III) $100,000
1. Small Kitchen
2. Contested
3. Good Deed
The Eight Belles is an interesting race becasue Small Kitchen is cutting back to one turn following a lackluster effort around two turns. I think she is the most talented runner in the field and I look for her to rebound. Bob Baffert could not be hotter and I think Contested will be right there at the wire.
Race 8 The Edgewood $150,000
1. Disposablepleasure (12-1) ML
2. Stephanie's Kitten
3. More than Love
The Edgewood for three year old fillies on the turf features Stephanie's Kitten who was a dissapointing third last time out in the Ashland at Keeneland. This race for her serves as a prep for the Coronation at Royal Ascot in June. She is the class of the race but I believe the riders will target her in the race based on her Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf win last year. Disposablepleasure tries turf on friday and I will believe she will take to the grass and defeat Stephanie's Kitten who I think could run into traffic.
Race 9 The Alysheba Stakes (Grade II) $300,000
1. Mucho Macho Man
2. Boxeur De Reus (30-1)
3. Succesful Dan
The Alysheba is a very compettive race and features Mucho Macho Man who is one of the top older males in training this year and Succesful Dan who returend at Keeneland with an impressive win. I think it will take Succesful Dan one more start to return to this level of compettion and Mucho Macho Man is the horse to beat. Mucho Macho Man ran a very solid third last year in the Kentucky Derby showing his affinity for the Churchill surface. He has run two impressive races this year and I think he will continue his roll in the Alysheba. Boxeur de Reus ran a decent race last time out in the Santa Anita Handicap and I think he could hit the board at a big price for O'Neil and Guttierez a preview of the Derby. I think Succesful Dan will run his race but this is a quick turnaround and might need this race.
Race 10 The American Turf (Grade II) $200,000
1. Howe Great
2. Gung Ho
3. Star Channel
The American Turf is for three year old males on the turf and for me the race starts with Howe Great. Even though he is in the 14 post position he has never lost on grass and until he does I am not going to pick against him. The race is filled with speed which does not set up for Silver Max who won the Transylvania last time out gate to wire. I like Gung Ho to come running late but I think Howe Great will have the jump turning for home.
Race 11 The Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) $1,000,000
1. Hard Not To Like (20-1)
2. Grace Hall
3. On Fire Baby
This year I beleive the Kentucky Oaks is a wide open race and for that reason I like the three year old filly named Hard Not To Like. I was very encouraged by her last race which was her first race off a decent layoff. I am willing to take the risk that she will take to the dirt because if she does she will be right there at the wire. I love her at what should be a price well over 15-1. Grace Hall is as consistent as they come, she has has never run a bad race and I look for that to continue on Friday, but I do not know if she will get a great trip. I think she is too good to not hit the board but I will pick against her. On Fire Baby has done nothing wrong on conventional dirt but I think the compettion might catch up to her a bit on Friday, she will be close but I think she will get caught late. The Oaks is a strong deep field and really any of them could win it, but I love the canadian filly to make a splash in the Oaks its Hard Not to Like her.
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