The 144th Running of the Belmont Stakes

The Belmont Stakes is the third and final leg of the Triple Crown. Run over a 1 ½ miles at Belmont Park. The Belmont Stakes is known as the "Test of Champions", and is  the longest and most grueling of the three Triple Crown races.  In this year's 144th running of the Belmont Stakes all eyes will be on a single horse, I'll Have Another. I'll Have Another will attempt to become the 12th Triple Crown Winner and first since 1978 when Affirmed accomplished the task. I'll Have Another breaks from post number 11 and is 4-5 odds on the morning line. His main competitors in the race will come from Dullahan (#5) who was a stong third in the Kentucky Derby, Union Rags (#3), a troubled 7th in the Kentucky Derby, and Paynter, a talented runner hailing from the barn of Bob Baffert. Below will be my horse by horse analysis of the Belmont Stakes followed by my selections. Happy Belmont week, and hopefully on Monday I will be blogging about the 12th Triple Crown winner!

PP  Name  (Odds)   [My Odds] 

1  Street Life (12-1)   [10-1] -  Street Life is trained by the young, but proven Chad Brown, owned in part by Houston Texans owner Robert McNair and is ridden by the always capable Jose Lezcano. Street Life will be a factor in this year’s Belmont Stakes. Street Life will be off of the television screen early in the race because he is a very deep closer. Street Life likes to drop way behind and make one big kick towards the end of the race. Street Life comes into the Belmont Stakes off of a respectable third place effort in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park four weeks ago. Prior to the Peter Pan he had a poor showing in the Wood Memorial, a Kentucky Derby prep race. Street Life will have no problem with the Belmont distance. There is a common misperception that to win the Belmont Stakes a horse needs to be far back. This is not true. Street Life will be running late, is bred for the distance, and is fond of the Belmont Park surface, making him a factor in the Belmont Stakes. 

2. Unstoppable U (30-1) [40-1]- Unstoppable U is undefeated for trainer Ken McPeek, and jockey Junior Alvarado. Unstoppable U is taking a major step up in class. He won a maiden special weight at Aqueduct followed by an allowance win going a mile at Belmont Park. Following that wire to wire win at Belmont Park Unstoppable U is being thrown into deep water in the Belmont Stakes. Unstoppable U is going to be a factor though because he is going to go to the lead. I believe he is talented, but this race is too long for him. Unstoppable U is going to see pace pressure from Union Rags among others. Unstoppable U will have the lead for about a mile but will not be a factor when the winner crosses the finish line.

3. Union Rags (6-1) [9-2]- Union Rags has gotten himself into trouble. In his Kentucky Derby prep, the Florida Derby he never really had a chance to run and the Kentucky Derby was a complete debacle as he ended up finish seventh. Trained by Michael Matz and ridden for the first time by John Velasquez, Union Rags is in the perfect spot to get the perfect trip he has desired all year. Ideally, Union Rags will sit in a comfortable spot in second right off of Unstoppable U. This makes Union Rags the most dangerous threat to I'll Have Another's Triple Crown attempt. Union Rags has run at Belmont Park once and romped in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes as a 2 year old. Union Rags gets the services of John Velasquez who will put him in a position to win the race. Union Rags should not have a problem with the 1 1/2 distance and when they turn for home he will be the horse the rest of the field will have to catch. 

4. Atigun (30-1) [25-1]- Atigun also comes from the barn of Ken McPeek. Atigun may be the more fancied of the two. Atigun was on the Kentucky Derby trail earlier this year by way of Arkansas. Atigun was a non factor in the Rebel Stakes or the Arkansas Derby. Atigun was successful in his last start, an allowance race at Churchill Downs. The problem with Atigun is that he has struggled in high quality races, and the Belmont is certainly a high quality horse race. Atigun will be towards the back of the pack, and does not have the kick to win the race. He should be able to handle the 1 1/2 which will put him in the top half of the running order, but Atigun is not good enough to hit the board. 

5. Dullahan (5-1) [7-2]- Dullahan is widely regarded as the most likely Belmont Stakes winner if I'll Have Another falters. Dullahan seemed to prove in the Kentucky Derby that he handles dirt. Dullahan is trained by Dale Romans and will be ridden for the first time by Javier Castellano. Dullahan is a closer as well, but I expect him to be closer to I'll Have Another in the Belmont Stakes. Dullahan will have to pass both Union Rags and I'll Have Another in the Belmont, a task I do not think that he will be able to accomplish. Dullahan is fresh, and Castellano is riding better than anyone in the country, but I think Dullahan still has to prove he is a capable dirt horse away from Churchill Downs, and for this reason I will look elsewhere in the Belmont Stakes. 

6.  Ravelo's Boy (50-1) [75-1]- Ravelo's Boy comes into the Belmont Stakes off a layoff. In his last race he was a non-factor in the Tampa Bay Derby a race that has produced very little. Ravelo's Boy has been over matched in his stakes appearances and will be over matched in the Belmont Stakes. Some horses have won the Belmont Stakes unexpectedly ,but this horse would be an absolute shock. He will have the services of the veteran Alex Solis but that will not be enough to make Ravelo's Boy a factor in the third leg of the Triple Crown.

7. Five Sixteen (50-1) [50-1]- Five Sixteen will be bet below his morning line for one reason, his jockey, Rosie Napravnik, the popular female jockey. Rosie became the first female jockey to win the Kentucky Oaks five weeks ago and will attempt to become the second female jockey to win the Belmont Stakes, but it will not happen. Five Sixteen was a non-factor last time out in an Aqueduct allowance race. This race is a major step up in class, and Five Sixteen will not be up to the task. 

8. Guyana Star Dweej (50-1) [60-1]- Guyana Star Dweej is simply over matched. Guyana Star Dweej is coming out of the same allowance race Unstoppable U was victorious in. Guyana Star Dweej was not finishing particularly well when he finished second in that race. I believe the 1 ½ miles will not suit him well. The class of the race will also get in the way of Guyana Star Dweej big to win the Belmont, who is not good enough to win this race.  Guyana Star Dweej gets the services of Belmont Stakes winning jockey Kent Desormeaux, but it will not matter. 

9. Paynter (8-1) [10-1]- Paynter is trained by Bob Baffert, ridden by Mike Smith, and owned by Ahmad Zayat, the same exact connections as Bodemeister. These connections will take their third crack at I'll Have Another but this time with a different horse. Paynter comes off an easy win at Pimlico on Preakness Day. The race was visually impressive, as Paynter was too good for that field. Paynter has been unsuccessful in his two stakes tries but for good reason. Paynter stepped into the Santa Anita Derby off a maiden win and ran very well to finish fourth. Paynter then ran in the Derby Trial and ran a good second at one turn. Back to two turns at Pimlico he was dominant. Paynter is a very dangerous horse to I'll Have Another's quest simply because of his connections and the fact that he is improving every single race. Watch Out.

10. Optimizer (20-1) [15-1]- Optimizer is trained by legendary D. Wayne Lukas and will be ridden by Corey Nakatani. Optimizer has run in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes and has been a relative non-factor. Optimizer is bred to run a 1 ½  miles but the problem is he is bred to run 1 ½  on the turf. Optimizer has been relatively ineffective on the dirt and has been better on turf and synthetic. He is by English Channel who won the Breeders Cup Turf at the Belmont Distance but it was on the lawn. Optimizer will relish the distance so he will be in the top half of the race but is simply not good enough to win or even hit the board in the Belmont Stakes 

11. I'll Have Another (4-5) [1-1]-  I'll Have Another has the opportunity to make history in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday. Following thrilling victories in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, I'll Have Another is on the cusp of becoming the 12th  horse to win the Triple Crown,  and the first since 1978. I'll Have Another is trained by Doug O'Neil and ridden by the young and inexperienced Mario Gutierrez. I'll Have Another could not have drawn better in the 11 post. Gutierrez will be able to watch the race unfold to his inside and will be able to stay outside of all of the traffic. He should get a good stalking trip and turning for home will have no excuses. The question will be, can I'll Have Another catch Union Rags and Paynter, and then hold off Dullahan and Street Life? I'll Have Another will be the focal point of the nation’s attention on Saturday. He has been perfect this year, but I have yet to pick I'll Have Another in the Triple Crown and that will not change Saturday. 

12. My Adonis (20-1) [30-1]- My Adonis is an up and down sort of horse. Trained by Kelly Breen and owned by George and Lori Hall who owned Ruler on Ice the winner of the Belmont Stakes last year. My Adonis began the year by running strong races in both the Holy Bull and the Gotham Stakes, but followed that up by two disappointing efforts. My Adonis will follow I'll Have Another into position and should have a good opportunity to run. My Adonis could very well jump up and run a big race but he is too unpredictable to put my trust in. 

Selections 

1. Union Rags

2. I'll Have Another

3. Street Life

I hope I'll Have Another wins on Saturday. I will be rooting for him, but based on my knowledge I believe Union Rags will win the Belmont Stakes. 

The Breeders Cup needs Black Caviar and Frankel

Horse Racing is a global sport and unbelievably does not revolve around the United States. Black Caviar and Frankel are the best horses in the world. Both are undefeated and dominate in their divisions in their respective countries. The great thing for the United States is that the Breeders Cup World Thoroughbred Championships already has the divisions in place for these horse. The Breeders Cup Mile or Classic would suit Frankel perfectly and the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint would more than suit Black Caviar. The Breeders Cup is a long way away but they need to recruit these two horses now because, yes bringing I'll Have Another to the Classic would be exciting, but what horse racing thrives off of is global stars. Black Caviar must be the first priority. The mare has Zenyatta status in Australia and is gaining notoriety in the United States. I think the Breeders Cup must do whatever they need to do to get this mare to the United States. If I were in charge of the Breeders Cup here is what I would do. I would raise the purse of the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint to $3,000,000 this would attract turf sprinters from all over the world as well as being more intriguing for Black Caviar. I would also provide a prep race at Santa Anita with a significant purse to attract Black Caviar to the United States for two races. This would also allow the super-mare to be on her game come Breeders Cup day. Lastly I would move the Turf sprint back in the race order so that it would be aired on the same broadcast as the Breeders Cup Classic. This mare has is at all. She is really fast. She would bring an audience from all over the world including her massive following in Australia. The Turf Sprint with the addition of Black Caviar would share the spotlight with the Breeders Cup Classic. Frankel is the most electrifying horse in the world. His talent and grace  makes him a superstar. He is, like Black Caviar, undefeated, and would provide a spark to the Breeders Cup Classic or the Mile. Another horse to watch would be Camelot, Camelot is undefeated following his Investec Darby win this morning. This is hypothetical and a long way away but the Breeders Cup Classic could contain two Triple Crown winners, I'll Have Another and Camelot which would make the Breeders Cup Classic the best race in decades. Simply put the Breeders Cup is a World Thoroughbred Championships and to fulfill that name they need to bring the best horses from around the world and right now some of the best horses in the world are running outside of the United States.

The Preakness Stakes

This Saturday's Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown includes four out of the first five finishers of the Kentucky Derby. The Kentucky Derby winner I'll Have Another headlines the race but the runner up Bodemeister will be the post time favorite. Went the Day Well fourth in the Derby will garner attention as will Creative Cause, and do not forget about the five newcomers in the years Preakness. I will do a horse-by-horse analysis followed by my selections at the bottom. A new feature in this blog will be "My odds" these are the odds I believe will be acceptable come post time. Happy Preakness!

PP Horse       M.L. Odds  My Odds

1 Tiger Walk  30-1            40-1- Tiger Walk is owned by Kevin Plank, who started Under Armour. Kevin Plank is a Maryland guy, his farm is in Maryland his horses are trained in Maryland and he himself went to the University of Maryland. Plank is great for racing in Maryland but I believe Tiger Walk is in this year’s Preakness to provide the Maryland boys a thrill, but not to pose a real threat in winning the race.  Tiger Walk has knocked on the door of hitting the board in New York graded stakes races this year but has not had that final gear to get him there, and I do not think it will be there on Saturday. Tiger Walk will make a late move but it will not be enough to hit the board. 

2. Teeth of the Dog 15-1   20-1- Teeth of the Dog is trained by Michael Matz and is his backup to the unlucky Union Rags. Teeth of the Dog comes off a decent third place effort in the Wood Memorial but the problem with the Wood Memorial, Gemologist the winner was 16th in the Kentucky Derby and Alpha the runner up was 12th. The Wood Memorial did not stack up against the best three year olds in the country two weeks ago, and I do not think Teeth of the Dog will change that on the third Saturday in May.  

3. Pretension 30-1       50-1- Pretension comes off a win in a the Canonero II stakes at Pimlico two weeks ago. In that race he defeated once highly regarded My Adonis. The problem I have with Pretension, in his start prior to the Canoreo II he was a non-factor in the Illinois Derby, the Preakness is a much tougher race than the Illinois Derby.  Pretension has little to no chance on Saturday. 

4. Zetterholm 20-1   15-1- Zetterholm is the most interesting "new shooter" having not raced in the Kentucky Derby; Zetterholm comes into the Preakness fresh. Zetterholm is taking a massive step up in class in the Preakness, after losing his debut he has reeled up three straight including a stakes win last time out. The problem is that stakes win was an overnight at Aqueduct for New York breds. This is a huge step up but Zetterholm is obviously talented, I look for him to be slightly overmatched but certainly he has a chance to be a factor. 

5. Went the Day Well 6-1  9-2- Describing Went the Day Well's Kentucky Derby trip in words is almost impossible. Went the Day Well should never have made a run, he was cut off early was way too far back, had trouble on the first turn and was as far back as he could be turning for home and yet he still rallied to finish fourth. Went the Day Well does not need to be far back, in fact he was fourth the whole way around before pouncing to the lead and winning the Vinery Racing Spiral. Went the Day Well will have no problem with the two-week turn around because of his light-seasoning prior. He has looked great at Fair Hill coming up to the race and is primed to run a monster race. 

6. Creative Cause 6-1  8-1- Creative Cause's trip in the Kentucky Derby might have been the only trip worse than Went the Day Well's and Union Rags. He ran further than any horse ran in the Derby and still managed to make a big run to finish fifth. I think the Derby took an immense amount of energy out of Creative Cause, and add the cross-country trip and back I think Creative Cause has undergone way too much to run his race on Saturday, 

7. Bodemeister 8-5  1-1- The race Bodemeister ran in the Kentucky Derby was impressive. He set torrid fractions was pressed the whole way and still managed to hold on for second. He ran the 5th fastest half-mile in the history of the Derby and still managed to hit the board, not to mention every horse around him became a non-factor in the stretch. Bodemeister will be tough to pass on Saturday. He comes into a race that does not have an abundance of speed unlike the Derby and will be doctored along by Mike Smith. Bodemeister has yet to bounce but this is his third race in five weeks, a extremely tough task for a lightly raced horse like Bodemeister. I think he will be very tough and will hit the board but I will try and beat him on Saturday.

8. Daddy Nose Best 12-1  20-1- I was quite high on Daddy Nose Best going into the Kentucky Derby but he proved in the Derby he was not good enough to win at this level. He ran an even race but never made a major run. I look for him to run a similar race on Saturday. I do think Daddy Nose Best is better than a significant amount of horse in this race and I believe he will finish in the upper half of this race but he will not be good enough to hit the board.

9. I'll Have Another- 5-2  2-1- I'll Have Another ran a perfect race in the Kentucky Derby, he had a perfect trip and Bodemeister faded just in time. I admire the race he ran and I admire Doug O' Neil for sending I'll Have Another to Baltimore so quickly after the Derby, but I think I'll Have Another's undefeated season and Triple Crown run will come to an end on Saturday. I'll Have Another runs well fresh; he won the Robert Lewis off a massive layoff, followed by the Santa Anita Derby off a long layoff. He had four weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby, but this time he only gets two. The brightside is he did not have a grueling campaign coming into the Triple Crown; the downside is he may not run well without any freshening. He really should get a perfect trip again right off the pace but I just do not see him finishing as well on Saturday, but hopefully he will prove me wrong so the Triple Crown run can continue. 

10. Optimizer 30-1  30-1- A lot like Daddy Nose Best, Optimizer ran a very average race in the Kentucky Derby, he finished right in the middle of the field and never made much of an impact and finished 11th. A believe Optimizer will not be much of a factor on Saturday because he is just not good enough to win the race. He may make a run for the coach D. Wayne Lukas but I am fairly confident he will not hit the board. 

11. Cozetti- 30-1  40-1- Cozetti ran a decent race in the Arkansas Derby, the problem was he was really far behind Bodemeister. Cozetti is improving and the gray son of Cozzene will be easy to spot in the field, but I simply believe he is Dale Romans replacement to Dullahan in this race. I do not think he is good enough to get a share of the pot. 

Selections

1. Went the Day Well

2. Bodemeister

3. I'll Have Another

4. Zetterholm 

New Derby Top 20 Final List 4/26/12

1. Gemologist- This horse knows how to win, should get a great trip
2. Bodemeister- Addition of Trinniberg does not help him but he might just be the best horse
3. Daddy Nose Best- Derby is a step up but do not overlook him
4. Union Rags- He needs to run faster than he has to win the Derby and he also seems to get himself in trouble
5. Creative Cause- I am not sure why they are so reluctant for him to wear blinkers
6. I'll Have Another- He runs well fresh, but he ran big in the Santa Anita Derby and only gets a month
7. Alpha- Was never going to get by Gemologist, might be overlooked though
8. Dullahan- I am not confident in his dirt ability but I am in his 1 1/4 abiliy.
9. Went the Day Well- His dirt win was good at Gulfstream needs to step up
10. Take Charge Indy- Will need to sit right off the lead, might not be good enough
11. El Padrino- I look for him to rebound in the Derby might not be good enough to win though
12. Sabercat- Third off the layoff needs to get significantly better though
13. Hansen- I do not think he is capable of 1 1/4 and there is a lot of speed
14. Mark Valeski- Lost shoe in Louisiana Derby, needs to be better though
15. Done Talking- There is a lot of speed and he will be running late, just saying
16. Daddy Long Legs- He was never a factor in the Juvenile back on the Churchill Dirt
17. Liason- Might like the Churchill Dirt and in that case he becomes a factor but he has been bad
18. Rousing Sermon- He needs to step up will also be running late
19. Trinniberg- Will be on the gas early never been two turns won't be there at the end
20. Prospective- No Way

New Derby Top 20 4/18/2012

1. Gemologist- The horse fights hard, he is a winner, and has won at churchill
2. Bodemeister- If he runs anything like that on Derby day he will be tough
3. Daddy Nose Best- There is a lot of speed and he has Gomez
4. Union Rags- He needs to step up but the race sets up for him
5. Creative Cause- I am not sure why they are so apprehensive to put blinkers on him
6. I'll Have Another- He is 2 for 2 this year, can't blame him for that
7. Alpha- He earned my respect in the Wood but was never getting by Gemologist
8. Dullahan- He is built for the Derby Distance but I question his dirt ability
9. Went the Day Well- Flying Under the radar should love Derby Distance
10. Take Charge Indy- Improving will be off the pace in the Derby
11. Sabercat- Third off the layoff at churchill watchout
12. Hansen- If he gets 1 1/4 I will be shocked, there is a lot of speed in the race as well
13. Secret Circle- He always fires will be right off the pace
14. Daddy Long Legs- I don't particulary get it his dirt race was horrid
15. El Padrino- He is better 15 but I am not sure he will get in
16. Mark Valeski- Also on the border whether he gets in or not could be a factor though
17. Done Talking- Ran well in the Illinois Derby third off the layoff he has a chance from off the pace
18. Wrote- He has some upside if he likes the dirt.
19. Liason- He disliked the Santa Anita dirt, but does he like dirt at all
20. Prospective- Not good enough

I think Rousing Sermon will run in Snow Chief, if he chooses Derby I would put him at 18 and move Liason and Wrote back, and move Prospective out of the top 20.

Derby Top 20 4/10/12

Derby Top 20
1. Gemologist- I loved how hard he fought in the Wood, loves Churchill
2. Creative Cause- Santa Anita Derby was discouraging
3. Daddy Nose Best- Work was good, under rated, will be a nice price on Derby Day
4. Union Rags- I keep waiting for him to step up on the big day
5. Hansen- Bluegrass is a really tough race, track is playing to speed though
6. I'll Have Another- I am thinking bounce in the Derby
7. Bodemeister- needs to win Arkansas Derby to get in Derby, he very well could though
8. Went the Day Well- graded earnings are all of the sudden an issue, but he should get in.
9. Alpha- Was never going to get by Gemologist but his race was very impressive
10. Take Charge Indy- He should get good trip in Derby, may not be good enough
11. Dullahan- Bluegrass will be a good test on how good he is, but dirt is question
12. Secret Circle- He has the earnings whether Arkansas derby goes well or not
13.Mark Valeski- I hope he gets in he is a good racehorse
14. Daddy Long Legs- I don't get it his BC Juvenile was awful
15. Prospective- He has not done anything wrong yet this year
16. Howe Great- needs graded earnings and Bluegrass is tough, but he is a winner
17. Wrote- He has the graded earnings as well O'Brien wants a derby but I dont think this is the horse
18. Liason- The horse does not want dirt, get over it, but he has the earnings
19. Sabercat- Needs a huge step up in Arkansas Derby, if not Derby should not be next step
20. Done Talking- I thought Illinois Derby was good, his Remsen was good, he can run.

Sidenote- El Padrino is a ton of trouble, I don't think he can get in, and Trinniberg is more likely for Preakness although he has enough Graded earnings.

Derby Top 20 3/14/12

1. Union Rags-Still number 1
2. Creative Cause- San Felipe was really good, top two are distancing themselves from the rest
3. Hansen- Gotham was good 10 furlongs is my question
4. Alpha- In the Florida Derby, he will run into El Padrino and Unions Rags, good test
5. El Padrino- Will run in the Florida Derby next, will be a good test
6.Bodemeister- Will just get better and better
7. I'll Have Another- Robert Lewis form is questionable
8. Gemologist- Makes first start this week
9. Mark Valeski- not getting very much respect for his risen star effort
10. Howe Great- Still not getting deerved respect has done nothing wrong.
11. Dullahan- His return was really good, should love the 10 furlongs
12. Secret Circle- Southwest was good, did not seem to being getting tired late
13. Sabercat- I am excited to see his rebel
14. Liason- San Felipe was not bad will love the Derby Distance
15. News Pending- Fountain of Youth was good
16. My Adonis- Runs solid every time
17- Went the Day Well- Improved in last start needs to improve again, Illinois Derby next?
18. - Prospective- Tampa Bay Derby was good, will get much needed class test next
19. Scatman- We will see how far he wants to go
20. Castaway- Will learn a  lot in the rebel

Derby Top 20 2/29/12

1. Union Rags- Fountain of Youth could not have been better, clearly number 1
2. Creative Cause- Should Improve with distance
3. Fed Biz- Will get major class test
4. Out Of Bounds- Will only get better
5. Alpha- Florida Derby or Wodd Memorial next?
6. Battle Hardened- Will only improve, and is not getting a lot of respect
7. I'll Have Another- Runs well fresh, waiting for Santa Anita Derby
8. El Padrino- Risen Star was good, but not great
9. Hansen- Gotham will be a big test
10. Gemologist- Major drop, needs a start soon
11. Secret Circle- Rebel was good, very good
12. Mark Valeski- Improved in Risen Star, clearly wants two turns
13. Howe Great- still under the radar, very versatile
14. Empire Way- Time for him to run a big race
15.  Take Charge Indy- Still a factor
16. Sabercat- He has gotten to work, first race back will be important
17. Castaway- Won slower rebel
18. Dullahan- Palm Beach will be his return
19. Liason- Needs to show more next time
20. Scatman- Ran really well in Rebel

On the bubble- Bodemeister, Rousing Sermon, Ever So Lucky
The Gotham will provide a lot of information especially regarding Hansen as well as some new comers.

Derby Top 20

1. Union Rags (Will learn a lot this weekend, he does not need to win but he needs to run really well)
2. Algorithms (Moves up with Creative Cause loss and strong work)
3. Fed Biz (Great allowance win)
4. Creative Cause (Was slightly discouraged by third place finish)
5. Battle Hardened (Sam Davis was weak but he will improve)
6. Gemologist (Loves Churchill needs to run soon though)
7. Out of Bounds (Will be part of loaded San Felipe)
8. Discreet Dancer (Work was good might be over his head this weekend)
9. Alpha (Waiting for Wood is a good move, he is on a roll)
10. I'll Have Another (Good Lewis win waiting till Santa Anita Derby, runs well fresh)
11. El Padrino (Heads Risen Star we will see how good he is)
12. Hansen (Gotham is a very important race for 2yo champion)
13. Howe Great (Under the Radar)
14.  Take Charge Indy (Will be factor in Fountain of Youth)
15. Empire Way (Improving  in every start)
16. Secret Circle (Southwest was very good, showed grit)
17. Ever So Lucky (I need to see something big from him next time out)
18. Castaway (Won slower version of Southwest but blew field away)
19. Dullahan (Will return soon, I have questions)
20. Shared Property (Ran the best race in Lecomte)

Derby top 15 2/14/12

This is the new Derby Top 15 Fed Biz enters the top 15 and goes all the way to three, his allowance win was very good, watch out for Fed Biz. Ever So Lucky drops out of the top 15 after not running in the Hutchenson, I am not sure he wants two turns.
1. Union Rags (Castellano opted for Algorithms still not worried)
2. Creative Cause (Nearing return )
3. Fed Biz (Allowance Win was impressive) *New*
4. Algorithms (The more iI think about him the more I like him, and Castellano chose to ride him in the Foutain of Youth over Union Rags)
5. Battle Hardened (Loved his win at Tampa, should improve)
6. Gemologist (Loves Churchill)
7. Discreet Dancer (Talent loaded two turns is the next question)
8. Out of Bounds  (I initially loved his last race but now I want to see one more)
9. Alpha (has not run against anything but has been impressive)
10. I'll have Another (Robert Lewis was very impressive)
11. El Padrino (Good allowancewin could act as springboard for bigger and better things)
12. Hansen (Gotham next, a crucial race)
13. Howe Great (Very versatile, know one is taking about him, watch out)
14. Take Charge Indy (bred to be a star likely to improve)
15. Empire Way (also bred to be a strar seems to be improving with every start)

***I am not a Dullahan fan, I think he passed tired horses in the Juvenile, he is good on synthetic but not nearly good enough on dirt.