Weekend Stakes Races 6-16-12 6-17

The Weekend is headlined by an incredible rendition of the G1 Stephen Foster H. as well as the Vanity Handicap at Betfair Hollywood Park, as well as good cards at Belmont, Colonial, and a graded stake at Delaware.

Churchill Downs

Grade  III Matt Winn Stakes $100,000
1. Neck 'n Neck
2. Mucho Macho
3. Right to Vote

Grade III Regret Stakes $100,000
1. Coup
2. Heart of Destiny
3. Colonial Flag

Grade II Fleur De Lis. Handicap $150,000
1. St. John's River
2. Royal Delta
3. Afleeting Lady

Grade I Stephen Foster Handicap $400,000
1. Wise Dan
2. Nehro
3. Ron the Greek

Belmont Park

Grade III Hill Price Stakes $150,000
1. Howe Great
2. Our Entourage
3. Summer Front

Betfair Hollywood Park

GI Vanity Handicap $250,000
1. Ellafitz
2. Include Me Out
3. Atlantic Swing

Colonial Downs

GIII Edward P. Evans All Along Stakes $100,000
1. Snow Top Mountain
2. La Pernelle
3. Speak Easy Gal
Pachattack would be my pick but I expect her to run in the Obeah at Delaware.

Colonial Turf Cup $500,000
1. Casino Host
2. Humble and Hungry
3. Smart Bid

Delaware Park

GIII Obeah Stakes $150,000
1. Pachattack
2. Love and Pride
3. She Be Classy

Derby Top 20 4/10/12

Derby Top 20
1. Gemologist- I loved how hard he fought in the Wood, loves Churchill
2. Creative Cause- Santa Anita Derby was discouraging
3. Daddy Nose Best- Work was good, under rated, will be a nice price on Derby Day
4. Union Rags- I keep waiting for him to step up on the big day
5. Hansen- Bluegrass is a really tough race, track is playing to speed though
6. I'll Have Another- I am thinking bounce in the Derby
7. Bodemeister- needs to win Arkansas Derby to get in Derby, he very well could though
8. Went the Day Well- graded earnings are all of the sudden an issue, but he should get in.
9. Alpha- Was never going to get by Gemologist but his race was very impressive
10. Take Charge Indy- He should get good trip in Derby, may not be good enough
11. Dullahan- Bluegrass will be a good test on how good he is, but dirt is question
12. Secret Circle- He has the earnings whether Arkansas derby goes well or not
13.Mark Valeski- I hope he gets in he is a good racehorse
14. Daddy Long Legs- I don't get it his BC Juvenile was awful
15. Prospective- He has not done anything wrong yet this year
16. Howe Great- needs graded earnings and Bluegrass is tough, but he is a winner
17. Wrote- He has the graded earnings as well O'Brien wants a derby but I dont think this is the horse
18. Liason- The horse does not want dirt, get over it, but he has the earnings
19. Sabercat- Needs a huge step up in Arkansas Derby, if not Derby should not be next step
20. Done Talking- I thought Illinois Derby was good, his Remsen was good, he can run.

Sidenote- El Padrino is a ton of trouble, I don't think he can get in, and Trinniberg is more likely for Preakness although he has enough Graded earnings.

Derby Top 20

There is quite the shakeup in this week's Derby top 20, following major preps there are new horses cracking the top 10 and top 20.

1. Creative Cause- Number 1 because everyone else is falling off, but he is very good.
2. Daddy Nose Best- Love this horse very consistent, seems like he will love Derby Distance
3. Union Rags- He will bounce back but how good is he really?
4. Hansen- Bluegrass is a good choice I think same pattern as Juvenile
5. Gemologist- Yet to lose, Wood Memorial is good test
6. Bodemeister- next race is crucial
7. I'll Have Another- Santa Anita Derby will be a deciding point on this colt
8. Went the Day Well- I loved his spiral effort
9. Take Charge Indy- I liked his Florida Derby but I am not convinced, everything went his way
10. Dullahan- I am not convinced on his dirt ability
11. Howe Great- Very consistent, yet to run a bad race, Bluegrass is next
12. Mark Valeski- We will see I think he is tough, threw a shoe might surprise people on Derby Day
13. Liason- Derby might be a race that suits him, needs to show more though
14. El Padrino- Pretty dissapointed in his Florida Derby effort he hs the ability to bounce back though
15. Secret Circle- The distance keeps getting longer but he keeps winning
16. Alpha- I am really not a fan after watching his replays has not beaten a soul
17. My Adonis- Has fired every time except Delta Jackpot should run well in Wood
18. The Lumber Guy- I really like this horse watch out for him in Wood, he will be my selection
19. Prospective- Very consistent needs to get better
20. Holy Candy- His maiden win was great but he is playing catch up

Daddy Long Legs and Wrote are both being pointed to Derby but I do not get it, Daddy Long Legs hated the dirt in the the Breeders Cup I do not know what would change now, just because he is by Scat Daddy does not mean he will suddenly love dirt.

Derby Top 20 3/14/12

1. Union Rags-Still number 1
2. Creative Cause- San Felipe was really good, top two are distancing themselves from the rest
3. Hansen- Gotham was good 10 furlongs is my question
4. Alpha- In the Florida Derby, he will run into El Padrino and Unions Rags, good test
5. El Padrino- Will run in the Florida Derby next, will be a good test
6.Bodemeister- Will just get better and better
7. I'll Have Another- Robert Lewis form is questionable
8. Gemologist- Makes first start this week
9. Mark Valeski- not getting very much respect for his risen star effort
10. Howe Great- Still not getting deerved respect has done nothing wrong.
11. Dullahan- His return was really good, should love the 10 furlongs
12. Secret Circle- Southwest was good, did not seem to being getting tired late
13. Sabercat- I am excited to see his rebel
14. Liason- San Felipe was not bad will love the Derby Distance
15. News Pending- Fountain of Youth was good
16. My Adonis- Runs solid every time
17- Went the Day Well- Improved in last start needs to improve again, Illinois Derby next?
18. - Prospective- Tampa Bay Derby was good, will get much needed class test next
19. Scatman- We will see how far he wants to go
20. Castaway- Will learn a  lot in the rebel

Derby Top 20

1. Union Rags (Will learn a lot this weekend, he does not need to win but he needs to run really well)
2. Algorithms (Moves up with Creative Cause loss and strong work)
3. Fed Biz (Great allowance win)
4. Creative Cause (Was slightly discouraged by third place finish)
5. Battle Hardened (Sam Davis was weak but he will improve)
6. Gemologist (Loves Churchill needs to run soon though)
7. Out of Bounds (Will be part of loaded San Felipe)
8. Discreet Dancer (Work was good might be over his head this weekend)
9. Alpha (Waiting for Wood is a good move, he is on a roll)
10. I'll Have Another (Good Lewis win waiting till Santa Anita Derby, runs well fresh)
11. El Padrino (Heads Risen Star we will see how good he is)
12. Hansen (Gotham is a very important race for 2yo champion)
13. Howe Great (Under the Radar)
14.  Take Charge Indy (Will be factor in Fountain of Youth)
15. Empire Way (Improving  in every start)
16. Secret Circle (Southwest was very good, showed grit)
17. Ever So Lucky (I need to see something big from him next time out)
18. Castaway (Won slower version of Southwest but blew field away)
19. Dullahan (Will return soon, I have questions)
20. Shared Property (Ran the best race in Lecomte)

Derby top 15 2/14/12

This is the new Derby Top 15 Fed Biz enters the top 15 and goes all the way to three, his allowance win was very good, watch out for Fed Biz. Ever So Lucky drops out of the top 15 after not running in the Hutchenson, I am not sure he wants two turns.
1. Union Rags (Castellano opted for Algorithms still not worried)
2. Creative Cause (Nearing return )
3. Fed Biz (Allowance Win was impressive) *New*
4. Algorithms (The more iI think about him the more I like him, and Castellano chose to ride him in the Foutain of Youth over Union Rags)
5. Battle Hardened (Loved his win at Tampa, should improve)
6. Gemologist (Loves Churchill)
7. Discreet Dancer (Talent loaded two turns is the next question)
8. Out of Bounds  (I initially loved his last race but now I want to see one more)
9. Alpha (has not run against anything but has been impressive)
10. I'll have Another (Robert Lewis was very impressive)
11. El Padrino (Good allowancewin could act as springboard for bigger and better things)
12. Hansen (Gotham next, a crucial race)
13. Howe Great (Very versatile, know one is taking about him, watch out)
14. Take Charge Indy (bred to be a star likely to improve)
15. Empire Way (also bred to be a strar seems to be improving with every start)

***I am not a Dullahan fan, I think he passed tired horses in the Juvenile, he is good on synthetic but not nearly good enough on dirt.