Kentucky Derby Preview
The 139th running of the Kentucky Derby is
headlined by the undefeated Todd Pletcher trained Verrazano, the budding star
and morning line favorite Orb, the Rick Pitino owned Goldencents, and the
Louisiana Derby winner Revolutionary. The
Kentucky Derby distance of 1 ¼ miles is the longest distance any of these
horses will have traveled. This years Derby, like every other year, is a
handicapping challenge because of the depth and unpredictability of the 20
horse race. Below is an in-depth analysis of each horse in the race, and I hope
to improve your knowledge on each entrant in this year’s Kentucky Derby. At the
bottom will be my selections, enjoy the race and good luck!
Horse-by-Horse Kentucky Derby 139 Analysis
PP Horse
Name ML Odds Corbin’s Odds
1. Black Onyx 50-1 50-1
Black Onyx comes into the Kentucky Derby off a victory in
the Spiral Stakes (G3) on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park. The win, six
weeks ago, gave Black Onyx his first graded stakes win and all 50 of his
Kentucky Derby points. Trained by Kelly Breen and ridden by Joe Bravo, Black
Onyx broke his maiden on a sloppy dirt track at Aqueduct as a 2 year old.
Although Black Onyx has won on dirt, it was over a sloppy track, and his worst
race to date came over a fast dirt track. He has done his best running so far
on turf and polytrack and is a major question mark on dirt and in terms of his
quality. The Spiral Stakes has turned out to be fairly weak, highlighted by the
poor performance of Uncaptured in the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes (G1). Black Onyx
drew a horrible post position, and he is a turf/synthetic horse running on dirt
and on top of that he is not good enough. The morning line of 50-1 suits Black
Onyx.
2. Oxbow
30-1 25-1
Oxbow has the right connections to win a Kentucky Derby. He
is trained by four-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer D. Wayne Lucas and
ridden by three-time Derby winning jockey Gary Stevens. The team paired up to
win the 1988 Kentucky Derby with winning colors. Oxbow comes into the Derby off
a disappointing 5th place finish in the Arkansas Derby. He was taken
out of his element in the race and taken to the back of the pack. The draw
hurts Oxbow, as now Gary Stevens will likely have to push him early to gain
good position. Oxbow could be near the lead at the top of the stretch, but
possibly being the pacesetter will take its toll on the Lukas trainee. I look
for Oxbow to miss the top five here.
3. Revolutionary 10-1
8-1
Revolutionary is the first of five horses in the race
trained by Todd Pletcher. Ridden by Hall of Famer and three-time Kentucky Derby
winning jockey Calvin Borel. Revolutionary broke his maiden in his fourth
start, and has not lost since. After winning his first race in December in
impressive fashion, Revolutionary scored in the Withers Stakes (G3) despite
having an awful trip. Following the
Withers, Revolutionary scored an impressive victory in the Louisiana Derby,
where he rallied wide and passed Mylute in the stretch to score by a neck. I
look for Borel to drop Revolutionary down to the rail early in the race and let
the speed develop in front of him. Revolutionary will certainly be running
late, but because he is traffic prone, and I question the level of competition
he has faced, he will not hit the board on Saturday.
4. Golden Soul 50-1
75-1
Golden Soul, trained by Dallas Stewart and ridden by Robby Alvarado
was a late entrant into the Derby field. Coming off a late running fourth in
the Louisiana Derby, Golden Soul is a huge long shot here. Although he has never run a bad race, he has
never been good enough to make a significant impact on a graded stakes race,
and that will not change in the Kentucky Derby. While he may pass some tired
horses late, he will not be a major factor.
5. Normandy Invasion
12-1 10-1
Normandy Invasion, trained by Chad Brown and ridden by
Javier Castellano comes into the Kentucky Derby off a second place effort in the
Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) to undefeated Verrazano. Normandy Invasion made a
strong run late to pass Vyjack and get up for second. Distance should not be a
problem for this son of Tapit, and he has been training incredibly sharp since
his arrival to Churchill Downs. Prior to
the Wood Memorial, Normandy Invasion made his seasonal debut in the Risen Star
Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds and had an awful trip finishing 5th.
Normandy Invasion has a tendency to break slow, and the break will be key for
him. It is notable that his jockey Javier Castellano chose Normandy Invasion
over Revolutionary. If Castellano gets
Normandy Invasion out of the gate and into a good spot, he is extremely
dangerous. I look for Normandy Invasion to be in the top three.
6. Mylute 15-1 25-1
Mylute, trained by Tom Amoss and ridden by the nation’s
leading jockey Rosie Napravnik, comes into the Derby off a good second in the
Louisiana Derby (G2). While he ran really well, passing Revolutionary in the
stretch, he eventually gave way and finished second. Due to the fervent
popularity of his jockey, he is likely to be bet on more than he should. I do
not see Mylute as a legitimate contender on Saturday.
7. Giant Finish 50-1
100-1
Giant Finish was the latest entry to the Kentucky Derby
field. After defections from the Derby field, the owners of the Tony Dutrow
trained colt made a last minute decision to enter. Ridden by Jose Espinoza, the
colt comes off a third in the Spiral Stakes(G3) behind Black Onyx. That
performance by Giant Finish was ok, but he has a very slim chance of making an
impact on Saturday, as the other horses are just much better than he is.
8. Goldencents 5-1
10-1
Goldencents has the celebrity connections. He is trained by
last year’s Kentucky Derby winning trainer Doug O’ Neil, owned by a group that
includes National Championship winning basketball coach Rick Pitino, and ridden
by the relatively inexperienced but popular jockey Kevin Krigger. Goldencents comes into the Derby off an
impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby (GI). Goldencents rated nicely and held
off a challenge to win the 1 1/8 miles test.
Distance and ratability are the major questions with this horse.
Although he has never run a bad race, prior to the Santa Anita Derby he was
very headstrong in his races. I look for Goldencents to be close or on the
lead, and while his jockey and trainer say distance will not be an issue, I
disagree. I think distance will be an issue and he will be a part of a hot
pace. I expect Goldencents to be bet heavily because of his connections.
Goldencents fights hard in all of his races, but in this spot, I foresee him
fading in the final furlong.
9. Overanalyze 15-1
15-1
Overanalyze, the second of the Todd Pletcher trainees comes
into the race off a dominant performance in the Arkansas Derby (G1). In his
second start off the layoff, Overanalyze under Rafael Bejarano, who will also
be aboard in the Kentucky Derby, stalked the pace and pounced on his way to a 4
½ length victory. Prior to that Overanalyze was a disappointing 5th
in the Gotham Stakes (G3) off the layoff.
Overanalyze’s worst race came at Churchill Downs as a two -year old and
that concerns me. He has also shown the tendency to regress off a big effort or
a win. I expect a big effort from Overanalyze on Saturday but there are too
many question marks to put him in my top three.
10. Palace Malice 20-1
15-1
Palace Malice, also trained by Todd Pletcher comes into the
Kentucky Derby off a strong second place effort in the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes
(GI ). Palace Malice, who will be ridden by Derby winning jockey Mike Smith,
was pushed hard to get into the Kentucky Derby. After two good efforts to begin
his year, Palace Malice had a disastrous trip in the Louisiana Derby (G2),
eliminating him from the Kentucky Derby field. The connections decided to wheel
him back to run in the Bluegrass two weeks later. In his first start on
synthetic, Palace Malice ran a really impressive race but got run down at the
wire. The major concern with Palace
Malice is that he is running his third race in five weeks. Palace Malice is a
solid horse with a very bright future but because of the extensive running he
has done this year, I will pass on Palace Malice.
11. Lines of Battle 30-1
40-1
Lines of Battle, trained by the Irish conditioner Aidan O’
Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore, comes to the Kentucky Derby off of a win in the
UAE Derby (G2) over the Tapeta surface at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. Lines of
Battle has never run on a conventional dirt surface, and while he has some dirt
pedigree, I believe he is up against it here. Lines of Battle has endured a
heavy dose of travel over the last five weeks and that will surely knock him
out a little. Lines of Battle’s tactical speed will also be mitigated because
the American speed horses are faster. I look for Lines of Battle to outperform
O’Brien’s 2012 Kentucky Derby starter Daddy Long Legs, but then again Daddy
Long Legs finished last.
12. Itsmyluckyday 15-1
15-1
Itsmyluckyday, trained by Eddie Plesa and ridden by Elvis
Trujillo comes into the Kentucky Derby off a decent second place effort in the
Besilu Stables Florida Derby (GI). In
the Florida Derby, Itsmyluckyday was coming off a two month layoff and appeared
to show the effects, tiring down the lane. Prior to the Florida Derby
Itsmyluckyday was very impressive when defeating champion Shanghai Bobby in the
Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and prior to that he was impressive in winning the
Gulfstream Park Derby. The two main questions regarding Itsmyluckyday are the
distance and whether or not he can carry his form from Gulfstream to Churchill
Downs. He has run well at every track he has been to with the exception of the
bullring at Delta Downs, so I do not expect the track to be an issue. I believe
Itsmyluckyday will improve off the layoff and he should also get a very good
trip sitting behind the main pace in the race. I love Itsmyluckday here, and
fully expect him to hit the board.
13. Falling Sky 50-1
75-1
The Falling Sky team is throwing up a Hail Mary by running
him in the Kentucky Derby. Falling Sky, trained by John Terranova and ridden by
Luis Saez, has speed and will be part of the early pace but that’s about it.
While he had a win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, that
race turned out to be weak in quality. Following the win in the Davis, Falling
Sky was part of the pace in both the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and the Arkansas
Derby (G1) and while he tried hard, he faded in both to be third and fourth
respectively. I expect Falling Sky to be
near the lead or on it and fade as they turn for home.
14. Verrazano 4-1
5-2
Verrazano is the fourth horse in the Kentucky Derby trained
by Todd Pletcher. Verrazano, who will
ridden by John Velasquez for the fifth consecutive time, comes into the
Kentucky Derby a perfect 4 for 4.
Verrazano made his debut in January and immediately burst onto the Derby
trail with an impressive victory. After winning his second race by a
scintillating 16 ¼ lengths in a Gulfstream Park allowance race, Verrazano
impressively took the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) defeating Java’s War and Falling
Sky. In his final prep for the Derby, Verrazano took care of business as the
heavy favorite defeating Normandy Invasion and Vyjack. While it was not a
blowout win, Verrazano was relatively questioned and answered each question
turning back Vyjack and holding off Normandy Invasion. I believe Verrazano is
the only horse in the Kentucky Derby with absolute superstar potential and I am
willing to forgive his lack of experience because of his talent. Picking the second choice in the Kentucky
Derby is usually not a smart move, but I love this horse and I think he is poised
to get a comfortable trip right behind the pacesetters. Verrazano is certainly
in my top three.
15. Charming Kitten 20-1
30-1
Charming Kitten is the fifth and final horse trained Todd
Pletcher, and is by far the longest shot of his five. Charming Kitten is owned
by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, who following their record-breaking performance at
Keeneland are red hot, and will be ridden by Edgar Prado who is riding really
well. Despite his impressive connections, Charming Kitten is a long shot for a
reason. In seven career starts he has
never been on conventional dirt. Being by Kitten’s Joy, he is bred for the turf
and polytrack and he has excelled on both surfaces, but I do not expect him to
handle the dirt well enough to win the Kentucky Derby. While I expect him not to embarrass his
connections even if he handles the dirt or the slop, I do not think he is good
enough to win the Kentucky Derby.
16. Orb 7-2 4-1
Orb, trained by legendary Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGauhey
and ridden by Joel Rosario is the morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby.
Orb comes into the Derby having won four in a row, including the Besilu Stables
Florida Derby (GI) over Itsmyluckyday. Prior to that win Orb defeated the
highly regarded colt Violence in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). Although
Orb is the morning line favorite, and deservingly so, I am not putting Orb in
my top three in the Derby for a few reasons. The Florida Derby in which Orb won
was two whole seconds slower than the Gulfstream Park Oaks, run at the same
distance earlier in the day. While the performance by Dreaming of Julia in that
race was sublime, 2 seconds is a significant difference. The second big reason
is I question the competition Orb was facing at Gulfstream Park. I believe the
Fountain of Youth fell into his lap after a torrid pace, and although his
Florida Derby was impressive, he beat Itsmyluckyday off the layoff. While Orb
very well may prove me wrong, I am going to take a stand against him on
Saturday.
17. Will Take Charge 20-1
20-1
Will Take Charge, trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by
Jon Court, comes into the Kentucky Derby off a win the Rebel Stakes (G2) at
Oaklawn Park. Seven weeks ago, Will Take Charge ran down stable mate Oxbow in
the final strides to register the victory.
Will Take Charge has been given time off by Lukas following the Rebel to
recover and come into the Kentucky Derby fresh. I like this move a lot. Will
Take Charge is a big horse with a big stride and should relish the added
distance. While I do not think he is talented enough to win the Kentucky Derby,
I think he is a contender at a big price.
18. Frac Daddy
50-1 65-1
Frac Daddy, trained by Ken McPeek and ridden by Victor
Lebron comes into the Kentucky Derby off a decent second place effort in the
Arkansas Derby (G1). Frac Daddy’s connections similar to Palace Malice were
determined to get him into the Derby, and after two starts that could be
described as debacles, McPeek took one last shot with Frac Daddy in the Arkansas
Derby. In the Arkansas Derby,Frac Daddy received a better trip under Lebron to
record a solid second place finish, although he was beaten handily. Frac Daddy showed he liked Churchill Downs
when running second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) as a two year old,
but that race turned out to be rather weak. Although he earned his way into the
Kentucky Derby, Frac Daddy will be overmatched Saturday.
19. Java’s War
15-1 20-1
Java’s War, also trained by Ken McPeek, comes into the
Kentucky Derby off an impressive late running victory in the Toyota Bluegrass
Stakes (GI) at Keeneland Racecourse over the synthetic surface. Java’s War, who
will be ridden by Julien Leparoux, began his career on turf and synthetics
surfaces. He is 3-5 on turf and synthetic surfaces only finishing out of the
money in his career debut. On dirt, Java’s War is 0-2, but his only in the
money performance was a solid second to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3).
Java’s War showed he can handle the dirt in Tampa and showed his talent at
Keeneland, but I still believe he is not good enough on dirt to win the
Kentucky Derby. In the Tampa Bay Derby he passed a lot of average horses late.
His worst race in his career was at Churchill Downs on the dirt. While he will be running late in some
capacity there are too many questions marks regarding Java’s War for me.
20. Vyjack
15-1 12-1
Vyjack, trained by Rudy Rodriguez and ridden by Garret
Gomez, was unlucky to draw the 20 post position. Vyjack will have to go very
wide in order to win the Kentucky Derby. Vyjack is 4-5 lifetime with his only
loss coming to Verrazano in the Wood Memorial. Prior to the loss Vyjack won
four in a row including the Jerome Stakes (G2) all at Aqueduct. Vyjack is an
interesting horse because he seems very adaptable in terms of running style,
and he has also run well every time. Distance is a major question for Vyjack,
being out of Into Mischief. Another
concern with Vyjack is talent, as he had every chance to get by Verrazano last
time out, and then got run down by Normandy Invasion late. While I believe
Vyjack will run his race, and Gomez will suit him well, I don’t think he is
good enough to win the Kentucky Derby.
Selections
1. Verrazano
2. Itsmyluckyday
3. Normandy Invasion
Longshot- Will Take Charge.
