Kentucky Derby 140 Top 20 #4

After a few weeks off due to travel and exams, I am updating my Kentucky Derby Top 20. The biggest news since the last list is that Honor Code, the former number 1, was first defeated in his return to the races and then was removed from the Kentucky Derby trail with a suspensory injury. Last week, We Miss Artie captured the GIII Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park in a thrilling stretch run to punch his hole to the Kentucky Derby, as did Chitu who captured the GIII Sunland Derby.

This upcoming week features three huge races leading to the Kentucky the GI Florida Derby, the GII Louisiana Derby, and the GI UAE Derby in Dubai. Surely following this week there will be plenty of shake up in the list.

Kentucky Derby Top 20 3/26/2014

1. Intense Holiday- Number 1 by default after defections of Honor Code and Top Billing, but runs in Louisiana Derby this weekend.
2. Cairo Prince- Runs in Florida Derby on Saturday against a very talented field, but does not need to win, will most likely be number 1 next week. McLaughlin seems very confident.
3. California Chrome- Super impressive in San Felipe, and future wager favorite, but still want to see him tested.
4. Samraat- Last round of prep races key for all of these, but undefeated New York bred will be tested again in the Wood Memorial.
5. Hoppertunity- Ran huge in the Rebel, proving he can run with top guns, should only improve.
6. Tapiture- Had a bad trip in the Rebel and still ran very big, and he always fires, I just believe Hoppertunity has a higher ceiling.
7. In Trouble- Entered in Louisiana Derby, will go either there or in the Wood Memorial, he should improve in either race he runs in.
8. Social Inclusion- Crushed Honor Code and run huge Beyer, but I still have questions, especially if he is headed.
9. Candy Boy- Has not run in a long time and the Santa Anita Derby will be a giant test for him
10. Ring Weekend- Will take the Calder Derby path, unusual but could be very effective for the speedy gelding
11. Uncle Sigh
12. Bobby's Kitten
13. General a Rod
14. Wildcat Red
15. Chitu
16. Ride on Curlin
17. Albano
18. Vicar's in Trouble
19. We miss Artie
20. Tonalist

Kentucky Derby 140 Top 20 #2

The major Kentucky Derby prep race last weekend took place at Aqueduct in the GIII $500,000 Gotham Stakes. The top three finishers of the the thrilling race are all expected to return in the Grade I Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. This upcoming weekend features the GII Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs, and the GII San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, both should have a profound impact on the road to the Kentucky Derby. This week on my Top 20 list, the biggest jump will be made by In Trouble, who ran a gutsy third in the Gotham off a significant layoff, I look for him to improve significantly in the Wood Memorial. I have removed Shared Belief from the list, because I have not seen enough in terms of work that would give him a realistic shot of making the Kentucky Derby, especially with 0 points. Havana has also been removed due to his battle with a quarter crack forcing him out of the GII Swale Stakes at Gulfstream last weekend.

Kentucky Derby Top 20 3/4/2014

1. Top Billing- Still believe he is a true Derby horse, hope he gets away from Gulfstream
2. Intense Holiday- Distance will not be a problem, Risen Star victory impresses me every time I watch it
3. Honor Code- Has some points from two year old season, but a first or second in the Rebel would leave McGaughey with more options down the road.
4. Cairo Prince- Purchased by Godolphin, which seems to be an encouraging sign
5. Samraat- Remained undefeated in gutsy Gotham victory, love his tactical speed.
6. In Trouble- Absolutely loved his Gotham performance, off the layoff down on the inside never gave in, should only improve off of that effort.
7. Strong Mandate- Rebel will be a serious test, whether he is worthy of this spot.
8. Tapiture- Perfect trip in Southwest led to victory, but it was a good performance
9. Candy Boy- Best 3yo on West Coast as of now, San Felipe should be tougher test
10. Uncle Sigh- I am a big believe in the Gotham, which could come back to bite me, but these are tough horses.
11. Bayern
12. Conquest Titan
13. Mexikoma
14. General A Rod
15. Wildcat Red
16. California Chrome
17. Kobe's Back
18. Albano
19. Midnight Hawk
20. Chitu

Kentucky Derby 140 Top 20 #1

The first major round of prep races took place last weekend, and with that it is time for my initial top 20 for the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby Top 20 2/24/2014

1. Top Billing-Really impressed me in FOY against a strong bias should move forward
2. Intense Holiday- Loved his Risen Star victory, closed relentlessly distance will not be a problem
3. Honor Code- Reports are he is working well, clearly very talented.
4. Cairo Prince- Holy Bull win was impressive, but I don't like the 9 week break prior to Fla. Derby
5. Strong Mandate- Had a very wide trip in Southwest and showed new dimension sitting off, should only improve off that effort.
6. Samraat- Huge fan of his, Gotham HUGE test this weekend
7. Tapiture- Ran huge in the Southwest, but had a perfect trip, expect tougher test in the Rebel
8. Candy Boy- Professional in most recent win, but not sure about the quality of the field.
9. Tonalist- Serious contender in the final round of prep races, taken out of his element in last start, a real threat to improve.
10. Bayern- Really powerful allowance win tested in next
11. Shared Belief
12. Conquest Titan
13. Mexikoma
14. General a Rod
15. Wildcat Red
16. California Chrome
17. Havana
18. Albano
19. Hoppertunity
20. Commissioner