147th Belmont Stakes Analysis and Selections

The 147th Belmont Stakes is all about American Pharoah's quest to be the first Triple Crown winner since 1978. American Pharoah backed up his Kentucky Derby victory with a dominating win in the Preakness Stakes. On Saturday American Pharoah will look to make history, but he is facing a tough field. In the Belmont Stakes, American Pharoah's main challenges will come from Frosted and Materiality. Frosted was a very solid fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and is fresh, having skipped the Preakness. Materiality ran sixth in the Kentucky Derby, but had a terrible trip and closed with a flourish in what ended up being an impressive sixth place finish. My Kentucky Derby selection Mubtaahij comes into the race with a decent 8th place finish and has been working steadily coming into the race. 

Pace Scenario 

In the Belmont, I expect American Pharoah to be on the lead. He is the most talented horse in the race and has natural speed. If he breaks well he should be on the lead. Materiality also should be close to the lead, which is his more natural position. The connections of Mubtaahij want him to be closer and I expect him to be closer, sitting right behind the two leaders. Frosted should be closer than he was in the Derby and should be sitting fourth. Madefromlucky who comes off of a victory in the local prep for the Belmont Stakes, the GII Peter Pan Stakes, should be sitting in the fifth. Three long shot closers Keen Ice, Frammento, and Tale of Verve will be far back early, unless one of their riders gets unexpectedly aggressive.

Contenders 

American Pharoah 

Frosted 

Materiality 

Mubtaahij 

Long Shots with a chance

Madefromlucky 

Keen Ice

Longshots with no chance

Frammento 

Tale of Verve 

1. #6 Frosted

2. #1 Mubtaahij 

3. #5 American Pharoah 

While I will be rooting for American Pharoah to complete the Triple Crown sweep, I believe the combination of the added distance and a very talented Frosted waiting in the wings will be too much to overcome. American Pharoah is a superstar, but Materiality will be able to track him and pressure him the entire way around the racetrack, and this will cost him the race. Waiting the entire way around the track for him will be Frosted and Mubtaahij, and these will be the two to decide the last furlong of the mile and one half marathon race. Good luck! 

Kentucky Derby 140 Top 20 #2

The major Kentucky Derby prep race last weekend took place at Aqueduct in the GIII $500,000 Gotham Stakes. The top three finishers of the the thrilling race are all expected to return in the Grade I Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. This upcoming weekend features the GII Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs, and the GII San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, both should have a profound impact on the road to the Kentucky Derby. This week on my Top 20 list, the biggest jump will be made by In Trouble, who ran a gutsy third in the Gotham off a significant layoff, I look for him to improve significantly in the Wood Memorial. I have removed Shared Belief from the list, because I have not seen enough in terms of work that would give him a realistic shot of making the Kentucky Derby, especially with 0 points. Havana has also been removed due to his battle with a quarter crack forcing him out of the GII Swale Stakes at Gulfstream last weekend.

Kentucky Derby Top 20 3/4/2014

1. Top Billing- Still believe he is a true Derby horse, hope he gets away from Gulfstream
2. Intense Holiday- Distance will not be a problem, Risen Star victory impresses me every time I watch it
3. Honor Code- Has some points from two year old season, but a first or second in the Rebel would leave McGaughey with more options down the road.
4. Cairo Prince- Purchased by Godolphin, which seems to be an encouraging sign
5. Samraat- Remained undefeated in gutsy Gotham victory, love his tactical speed.
6. In Trouble- Absolutely loved his Gotham performance, off the layoff down on the inside never gave in, should only improve off of that effort.
7. Strong Mandate- Rebel will be a serious test, whether he is worthy of this spot.
8. Tapiture- Perfect trip in Southwest led to victory, but it was a good performance
9. Candy Boy- Best 3yo on West Coast as of now, San Felipe should be tougher test
10. Uncle Sigh- I am a big believe in the Gotham, which could come back to bite me, but these are tough horses.
11. Bayern
12. Conquest Titan
13. Mexikoma
14. General A Rod
15. Wildcat Red
16. California Chrome
17. Kobe's Back
18. Albano
19. Midnight Hawk
20. Chitu

Kentucky Derby 140 Top 20 #1

The first major round of prep races took place last weekend, and with that it is time for my initial top 20 for the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby Top 20 2/24/2014

1. Top Billing-Really impressed me in FOY against a strong bias should move forward
2. Intense Holiday- Loved his Risen Star victory, closed relentlessly distance will not be a problem
3. Honor Code- Reports are he is working well, clearly very talented.
4. Cairo Prince- Holy Bull win was impressive, but I don't like the 9 week break prior to Fla. Derby
5. Strong Mandate- Had a very wide trip in Southwest and showed new dimension sitting off, should only improve off that effort.
6. Samraat- Huge fan of his, Gotham HUGE test this weekend
7. Tapiture- Ran huge in the Southwest, but had a perfect trip, expect tougher test in the Rebel
8. Candy Boy- Professional in most recent win, but not sure about the quality of the field.
9. Tonalist- Serious contender in the final round of prep races, taken out of his element in last start, a real threat to improve.
10. Bayern- Really powerful allowance win tested in next
11. Shared Belief
12. Conquest Titan
13. Mexikoma
14. General a Rod
15. Wildcat Red
16. California Chrome
17. Havana
18. Albano
19. Hoppertunity
20. Commissioner

Weekend Stakes Selections July 27-28/2013

After a bit of a break I am back at it! I will be making selections for major stakes race throughout the rest of the year. This upcoming weekend is headlined by terrific racing at Saratoga, Monmouth and Del Mar. The spotlight hits Saratoga on Saturday, featuring two Grade I events and the Grade II Jim Dandy Stakes. Sunday, the racing world shifts its focus to Oceanport New Jersey, as Monmouth Park hosts its biggest card of the year. The Grade I Haskell Invitational is the headline event, which is supported by a strong undercard of graded stakes action. On the West Coast Del Mar features the Grade II San Diego Handicap on Saturday, followed the Grade I Bing Crosby Stakes on Sunday. Below are all of my selections for this weeks major stakes action! Good luck!

Saturday 

Saratoga 

Race 5 Grade I $300,000 Prioress Stakes 

1. Kauai Katie (1-1) *Best Bet 

2. Wildcat Lilly (4-1)

3. So Many Ways (3-1)

Race 9 Grade I $600,000 Diana 

1. Centre Court (5-2)

2. Stephanie's Kitten (8-5)

3. Laughing (12-1)

Race 10 Grade II $600,000 Jim Dandy Stakes 

1.  Palice Malice (5-2)

2. Code West (6-1)

3. Mylute (7-2)

Del Mar 

Race 8 Grade II $200,000 San Diego Handicap 

1. Chief Havoc (5-1)

2. Paynter (9-5)

3. Clubhouse Ride (4-1)

Sunday

Monmouth Park

Race 5 Grade III $150,000 Taylormade Matchmaker Stakes 

1. Julie's Love (3-1)

2. Starstruck (6-1)

3. Channel Lady (4-1)

Race 6 Grade II $200,000 Molly Pitcher Stakes 

1. Lady Samuri (10-1)

2. Joyful Victory (7-5)

3. Succesful Song (4-1)

Race 9  Grade II $200,000 Monmouth Cup  

1. Take Charge Indy (9-5)

2. Hymm Book (5-2)

3. Ponzi Scheme (6-1) 

Race 12 Grade III $150,000 Oceanport Stakes 

1. Swift Warrior (4-1)

2. Hudson Steele (6-1)

3. General Logan (8-1)

Race 13 Grade I $1,000,000 William Hill Haskell Invitational 

1. Verrazano (9-5)

2. Oxbow (2-1)

3. Vyjack (12-1) (If he runs)

3. Power Broker (3-1) (If Vyack scratches) 

Del Mar 

Race 8 Grade I $300,000 Bing Crosby Stakes 

1. Jimmy Creed 

2. Majestic City 

3. Goldencents 

Saratoga 

Race 10 Grade II $200,000 Amsterdam Stakes 

1. Salutos Amigos (12-1)

2. Forty Tales (2-1) 

3. Mentor Cane (6-1) 

Kentucky Derby Top 20 #6

The major preps have ended, and trainers are shipping their horses to Churchill Downs. After winning performances by Java's War in the Bluegrass Stakes, Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby the Kentucky Derby field has essentially taken shape. With under three weeks to go until the First Saturday in May, the Kentucky Derby Top 20 is almost stuck in cement.

Kentucky Derby Top 20
1. Verrazano- He will the morning line favorite, and deserves it.
2. Revolutionary- Whichever jockey rides him, they need to keep him out of trouble.
3. Orb- He is a magnificent looking colt, with the connections in his corner. A fast pace would aid him.
4. Normandy Invasion- Javier Castellano chose him, a decisive move. Is he good enough outside of Aqueduct?
5. Goldencents- He will be near the pace under Krigger, but if he gets dirt in his face, will he go on?
6. Overanalyze- Dominant in the Arkansas Derby, the field was suspect but he took care of business
7. It'smyluckyday- Flying under the radar, if he returns to Holy Bull form he is extremely dangerous
8. Oxbow- Another brutal trip in the Arkansas Derby, he is not one to throw out
9. Java's War- He ran phenomenally in the Bluegrass Stakes, but is he really as good on dirt
10. Palice Malice- He is doing a mini Triple Crown coming into the Kentucky Derby, but boy is he talented
11. Vyjack- He was sent to Fair Hill to recover, which is a bit of a concern, I have many questions, especially about distance.
12. Myute- Similar to Vyjack, there are distance questions, really no excuse for not winning the Louisiana Derby after hitting the lead.
13. Governor Charlie- Possibly the only horse for Baffert in the field, needs to step up
14. Will Take Charge- Rebel Stakes did not hold up particularly well, but liked the move to give him time coming into the Derby
15. Lines of Battle- Dirt is the question with him, and the UAE Derby was brutally slow
16. Frac Daddy- Connections were hard pressed to get him into the Kentucky Derby, and the performance in the Arkansas Derby was good enough to get him in, but he is not good enough.
17. Black Onyx- He moves down, because the Spiral form is struggling to hold up
18. Charming Kitten- Dirt is a major question, but it looks like he is getting in.
19. Falling Sky- His point will get him in the Derby, but he is just a pace factor
20. Departing- He would be in the top 15, but not sure he is going to get in.

Derby Top 20 #2

There has been plenty of action around the country since the initial Kentucky Derby top 20 came out.  There will be plenty of changes in this week's edition, but there will be no change at number 1, Verrazano, at the moment is head and shoulders above the rest.  

Kentucky Derby Top 20

1. Verrazano- Tampa Bay Derby win confirmed that he is indeed a star, safely at number 1

2. Orb- Has the right style to win a Kentucky Derby, may not win Florida Derby, but he doesn't have to

3. Flashback- Tough trip in San Felipe, still near the top, but needs to rebound in SA Derby

4. Vyjack- Loved his Gotham win, but he will get tested in the Wood Memorial 

5. It'smyluckyday- Needs to validate Holy Bull win in the Florida Derby against a tough field

6. Hear the Ghost- Pace aided win in San Felipe, but certainly flourished at two turns

7. Shanghai Bobby- BC Juvenile proving to be weak, he needs to prove himself at a distance 

8. Revolutionary- Louisiana Derby next for the very talented Withers winner, needs to be tested

9. Super Ninety Nine- Not Sure he will be challenged at all in Rebel 

10. Palice Malice- This son of Curlin is improving in every start, and is forgotten at times 

11. Normandy Invasion

12. Goldencents 

13.  Oxbow

14. Tiz a Minister

15. Elnaawi 

16. Speak Logistics 

17. Delhomme 

18. Mr. Palmer 

19. Overanalyze 

20. Departing