The
Belmont Stakes is the third and final leg of the Triple Crown. Run over a 1 ½ miles
at Belmont Park. The Belmont Stakes is known as the "Test of
Champions", and is the longest and most grueling of the three
Triple Crown races. In this year's 144th running of the Belmont Stakes
all eyes will be on a single horse, I'll Have Another. I'll Have Another will
attempt to become the 12th Triple Crown Winner and first since 1978 when
Affirmed accomplished the task. I'll Have Another breaks from post number 11
and is 4-5 odds on the morning line. His main competitors in the race
will come from Dullahan (#5) who was a stong third in the Kentucky Derby, Union
Rags (#3), a troubled 7th in the Kentucky Derby, and Paynter, a talented runner
hailing from the barn of Bob Baffert. Below will be my horse by
horse analysis of the Belmont Stakes followed by my selections. Happy
Belmont week, and hopefully on Monday I will be blogging about the 12th Triple
Crown winner!
PP
Name (Odds) [My Odds]
1
Street Life (12-1) [10-1] - Street Life is trained by the young,
but proven Chad Brown, owned in part by Houston Texans owner Robert McNair and
is ridden by the always capable Jose Lezcano. Street Life will be a factor in
this year’s Belmont Stakes. Street Life will be off of the television screen
early in the race because he is a very deep closer. Street Life likes to drop
way behind and make one big kick towards the end of the race. Street Life comes
into the Belmont Stakes off of a respectable third place effort in the Peter
Pan Stakes at Belmont Park four weeks ago. Prior to the Peter Pan he had a poor
showing in the Wood Memorial, a Kentucky Derby prep race. Street Life will have
no problem with the Belmont distance. There is a common misperception that to
win the Belmont Stakes a horse needs to be far back. This is not true. Street Life will be running late, is bred for the distance, and is fond of the
Belmont Park surface, making him a factor in the Belmont Stakes.
2.
Unstoppable U (30-1) [40-1]- Unstoppable U is undefeated for trainer Ken
McPeek, and jockey Junior Alvarado. Unstoppable U is taking a major step up in
class. He won a maiden special weight at Aqueduct followed by an allowance win
going a mile at Belmont Park. Following that wire to wire win at Belmont Park
Unstoppable U is being thrown into deep water in the Belmont Stakes.
Unstoppable U is going to be a factor though because he is going to go to the
lead. I believe he is talented, but this race is too long for him. Unstoppable
U is going to see pace pressure from Union Rags among others. Unstoppable U
will have the lead for about a mile but will not be a factor when the winner
crosses the finish line.
3.
Union Rags (6-1) [9-2]- Union Rags has gotten himself into trouble. In his
Kentucky Derby prep, the Florida Derby he never really had a chance to run and the
Kentucky Derby was a complete debacle as he ended up finish seventh. Trained by
Michael Matz and ridden for the first time by John Velasquez, Union Rags is in the
perfect spot to get the perfect trip he has desired all year. Ideally, Union
Rags will sit in a comfortable spot in second right off of Unstoppable U. This
makes Union Rags the most dangerous threat to I'll Have Another's Triple Crown
attempt. Union Rags has run at Belmont Park once and romped in the Grade
1 Champagne Stakes as a 2 year old. Union Rags gets the services of John
Velasquez who will put him in a position to win the race. Union Rags should not
have a problem with the 1 1/2 distance and when they turn for home he will be
the horse the rest of the field will have to catch.
4.
Atigun (30-1) [25-1]- Atigun also comes from the barn of Ken McPeek. Atigun may
be the more fancied of the two. Atigun was on the Kentucky Derby trail earlier
this year by way of Arkansas. Atigun was a non factor in the Rebel Stakes
or the Arkansas Derby. Atigun was successful in his last start, an
allowance race at Churchill Downs. The problem with Atigun is that he has
struggled in high quality races, and the Belmont is certainly a high
quality horse race. Atigun will be towards the back of the pack, and does not
have the kick to win the race. He should be able to handle the 1 1/2 which will
put him in the top half of the running order, but Atigun is not good enough to
hit the board.
5.
Dullahan (5-1) [7-2]- Dullahan is widely regarded as the most likely Belmont
Stakes winner if I'll Have Another falters. Dullahan seemed to prove in the
Kentucky Derby that he handles dirt. Dullahan is trained by Dale Romans and
will be ridden for the first time by Javier Castellano. Dullahan is a closer as
well, but I expect him to be closer to I'll Have Another in the Belmont Stakes.
Dullahan will have to pass both Union Rags and I'll Have Another in the Belmont, a task I do not think that he will be able to accomplish. Dullahan is fresh, and
Castellano is riding better than anyone in the country, but I think Dullahan
still has to prove he is a capable dirt horse away from Churchill Downs, and
for this reason I will look elsewhere in the Belmont Stakes.
6.
Ravelo's Boy (50-1) [75-1]- Ravelo's Boy comes into the Belmont Stakes
off a layoff. In his last race he was a non-factor in the Tampa Bay Derby a
race that has produced very little. Ravelo's Boy has been over matched in his
stakes appearances and will be over matched in the Belmont Stakes. Some horses
have won the Belmont Stakes unexpectedly ,but this horse would be an absolute
shock. He will have the services of the veteran Alex Solis but that will not be
enough to make Ravelo's Boy a factor in the third leg of the Triple Crown.
7.
Five Sixteen (50-1) [50-1]- Five Sixteen will be bet below his morning line for
one reason, his jockey, Rosie Napravnik, the popular female jockey. Rosie
became the first female jockey to win the Kentucky Oaks five weeks ago and will
attempt to become the second female jockey to win the Belmont Stakes, but it
will not happen. Five Sixteen was a non-factor last time out in an Aqueduct
allowance race. This race is a major step up in class, and Five Sixteen will
not be up to the task.
8.
Guyana Star Dweej (50-1) [60-1]- Guyana Star Dweej is simply over matched.
Guyana Star Dweej is coming out of the same allowance race Unstoppable U was
victorious in. Guyana Star Dweej was not finishing particularly well when
he finished second in that race. I believe the 1 ½ miles will not suit him
well. The class of the race will also get in the way of Guyana Star Dweej big
to win the Belmont, who is not good enough to win this race. Guyana Star
Dweej gets the services of Belmont Stakes winning jockey Kent Desormeaux, but
it will not matter.
9.
Paynter (8-1) [10-1]- Paynter is trained by Bob Baffert, ridden by Mike Smith, and
owned by Ahmad Zayat, the same exact connections as Bodemeister. These
connections will take their third crack at I'll Have Another but this time with
a different horse. Paynter comes off an easy win at Pimlico on Preakness Day.
The race was visually impressive, as Paynter was too good for that field.
Paynter has been unsuccessful in his two stakes tries but for good reason.
Paynter stepped into the Santa Anita Derby off a maiden win and ran very well to
finish fourth. Paynter then ran in the Derby Trial and ran a good second at one
turn. Back to two turns at Pimlico he was dominant. Paynter is a very dangerous
horse to I'll Have Another's quest simply because of his connections and the
fact that he is improving every single race. Watch Out.
10.
Optimizer (20-1) [15-1]- Optimizer is trained by legendary D. Wayne Lukas and
will be ridden by Corey Nakatani. Optimizer has run in both the Kentucky Derby
and the Preakness Stakes and has been a relative non-factor. Optimizer is bred
to run a 1 ½ miles but the problem is he
is bred to run 1 ½ on the turf.
Optimizer has been relatively ineffective on the dirt and has been better on
turf and synthetic. He is by English Channel who won the Breeders Cup Turf at
the Belmont Distance but it was on the lawn. Optimizer will relish the distance
so he will be in the top half of the race but is simply not good enough to win
or even hit the board in the Belmont Stakes
11. I'll Have
Another (4-5) [1-1]- I'll Have Another has the opportunity to
make history in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday. Following thrilling victories
in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, I'll Have Another is on the
cusp of becoming the 12th horse to win
the Triple Crown, and the first since
1978. I'll Have Another is trained by Doug O'Neil and ridden by the young
and inexperienced Mario Gutierrez. I'll Have Another could not have drawn
better in the 11 post. Gutierrez will be able to watch the race unfold to his
inside and will be able to stay outside of all of the traffic. He should get a
good stalking trip and turning for home will have no excuses. The question will
be, can I'll Have Another catch Union Rags and Paynter, and then hold off
Dullahan and Street Life? I'll Have Another will be the focal point of the
nation’s attention on Saturday. He has been perfect this year, but I have yet
to pick I'll Have Another in the Triple Crown and that will not change Saturday.
12. My Adonis
(20-1) [30-1]- My Adonis is an up and down sort of horse. Trained by Kelly
Breen and owned by George and Lori Hall who owned Ruler on Ice the winner of
the Belmont Stakes last year. My Adonis began the year by running strong races
in both the Holy Bull and the Gotham Stakes, but followed that up by two disappointing efforts.
My Adonis will follow I'll Have Another into position and should have a
good opportunity to run. My Adonis could very well jump up and run a
big race but he is too unpredictable to put my trust in.
Selections
1. Union Rags
2. I'll Have
Another
3. Street Life
I hope I'll Have Another wins on Saturday. I will be rooting for him, but based on my knowledge I believe Union Rags will win the Belmont Stakes.
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