Thursday, April 26, 2012

New Derby Top 20 Final List 4/26/12

1. Gemologist- This horse knows how to win, should get a great trip
2. Bodemeister- Addition of Trinniberg does not help him but he might just be the best horse
3. Daddy Nose Best- Derby is a step up but do not overlook him
4. Union Rags- He needs to run faster than he has to win the Derby and he also seems to get himself in trouble
5. Creative Cause- I am not sure why they are so reluctant for him to wear blinkers
6. I'll Have Another- He runs well fresh, but he ran big in the Santa Anita Derby and only gets a month
7. Alpha- Was never going to get by Gemologist, might be overlooked though
8. Dullahan- I am not confident in his dirt ability but I am in his 1 1/4 abiliy.
9. Went the Day Well- His dirt win was good at Gulfstream needs to step up
10. Take Charge Indy- Will need to sit right off the lead, might not be good enough
11. El Padrino- I look for him to rebound in the Derby might not be good enough to win though
12. Sabercat- Third off the layoff needs to get significantly better though
13. Hansen- I do not think he is capable of 1 1/4 and there is a lot of speed
14. Mark Valeski- Lost shoe in Louisiana Derby, needs to be better though
15. Done Talking- There is a lot of speed and he will be running late, just saying
16. Daddy Long Legs- He was never a factor in the Juvenile back on the Churchill Dirt
17. Liason- Might like the Churchill Dirt and in that case he becomes a factor but he has been bad
18. Rousing Sermon- He needs to step up will also be running late
19. Trinniberg- Will be on the gas early never been two turns won't be there at the end
20. Prospective- No Way

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Weekend Stakes Races 4/21/12

This weekend features the Doubledogdare on Friday at Keeneland and the Coolmore Lexington on Saturday as well as two graded stakes races on the grass at Santa Anita and one stakes race at Pimlico.


The Doubledogdare S. (G3)
1. Pachattack
2. Principal Role
3. La Gran Bailadora

The Doubledogdare features the return of Pachattack who finished a really good third in last years Breeders Cup Ladies Classic, I think she will get the job done on Friday. Principal Role is making her first start in the United States, she has been very consistent in Europe so I look for her to continue that trend on Friday. La Gran Bailadora should enjoy the added distance but is probably not good enough to get there. I think Joyful Victory has regressed from last year will be too short of a price. Kathmanblu makes her first start of the year she got off track last year and has the oppurtunity to get back on track on friday.

The Coolmore Lexington (G2)
1. Holliday Road
2. News Pending
3. Gold Megillah

The Coolmore Lexington is the last race on the Derby Trail. The favorites will be Morgan's Guerilla and Castaway, I do not like either. I love Holliday Road who took a huge step forward on the poly track last time in the Spiral. I think News Pending will rebound as well, I think the polytrack will suit him. Gold Megillah can't seem to get a good trip I think he will on saturday and should run a good race.

Santa Anita

The San Simeon (G3)
1. Compari
2. Irish Art
3. California Flag

Santa Barbara (G2)
1. Vamos a Galupiar
2. Cambina
3. Capital Plan

The Dahlia
1. Master Shade
2. Idle Talk
3. Coco Ecolo

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

New Derby Top 20 4/18/2012

1. Gemologist- The horse fights hard, he is a winner, and has won at churchill
2. Bodemeister- If he runs anything like that on Derby day he will be tough
3. Daddy Nose Best- There is a lot of speed and he has Gomez
4. Union Rags- He needs to step up but the race sets up for him
5. Creative Cause- I am not sure why they are so apprehensive to put blinkers on him
6. I'll Have Another- He is 2 for 2 this year, can't blame him for that
7. Alpha- He earned my respect in the Wood but was never getting by Gemologist
8. Dullahan- He is built for the Derby Distance but I question his dirt ability
9. Went the Day Well- Flying Under the radar should love Derby Distance
10. Take Charge Indy- Improving will be off the pace in the Derby
11. Sabercat- Third off the layoff at churchill watchout
12. Hansen- If he gets 1 1/4 I will be shocked, there is a lot of speed in the race as well
13. Secret Circle- He always fires will be right off the pace
14. Daddy Long Legs- I don't particulary get it his dirt race was horrid
15. El Padrino- He is better 15 but I am not sure he will get in
16. Mark Valeski- Also on the border whether he gets in or not could be a factor though
17. Done Talking- Ran well in the Illinois Derby third off the layoff he has a chance from off the pace
18. Wrote- He has some upside if he likes the dirt.
19. Liason- He disliked the Santa Anita dirt, but does he like dirt at all
20. Prospective- Not good enough

I think Rousing Sermon will run in Snow Chief, if he chooses Derby I would put him at 18 and move Liason and Wrote back, and move Prospective out of the top 20.

Friday, April 13, 2012

Weekend Selections 4/14/12

This weekend features huge race cards from Keeneland, Oaklawn, and Charles Town.

The Vinery Madison (Thursday)
1. Sugarinthemorning
2. Musical Romace
3. Groupie Doll
The Vinery Madison is a phenomenal Grade 1 on Thursday at Keeneland, I love Sugarinthemorning, she is extremely consistent, and very versatile, Musical Romance will fire but I do not think she will get there today.

Maker's 46 Mile (Friday)
1. Get Stormy
2. Big Blue Kitten
3. Turallure

The Maker's 46 mile is another great race on friday at Keeneland, I think Get Stormy could get an easy lead and repeat in this race, I think Turallure will need this race, but watch out next time.

Keeneland Saturday

The Jenny Wiley
1. Aruna
2. Zagora
3. Tapitsfly

Aruna has been plauged by some awful trips in the Diana and the Breeders Cup with a good trip I think she will have Zagora's number who has been firing lately, the race is between these two in my mind but Tapitsfly is always dangerous if she fires.

The Commonwealth

1. Right One
2. Comedero
3. Bergerac

Right One is the class of the race, polytrack is the question but I believe he will take to it, Comedero is as good of an Arkansas bred as I have seen and he should run his race on Saturday.

The Shakertown
1. Havelock
2. Chamberlin Bridge
3. Great Attack

I love Havelock in this race, he likes Keeneland, and needed that race in Tampa, Chambelin Bridge will be right there but seems to have lost a step, Great Attack will be on the gas early on and we will see if he can hold on.

The Bluegrass Stakes
1. Howe Great
2. Hansen
3. Holy Candy

I love Howe Great here, I think he will get a perfect trip right off Hansen and may be able to run him down, he is so consistent I really think he has a chance to win, Holy Candy has a masssive amount of talent watch out for him.

The Apple Blossom
1. Absinthe Minded
2. Plum Pretty
3. Tiz Miz Sue
I think Plum Pretty is vulnerable first back in a grade 1, I think Absinthe Minded will rebound today and get first grade 1 today.

The Count Fleet
1. Hamazing Destiny
2. Izzy Rules
3. Apriority
I keep waiting for Hamazing Destiny to break through I like him though because Izzy Rules and Apriority will garner most of the attention he might be overlooked a good time for him to get the job done.

The Oaklawn Handicap
2. Win Willy
3. Ron the Greek
I like Alternation because he has showed an afinity for Oaklawn, his last race was really impressive, he is versatile showing he can be on or off the lead. Win Willy is the darkhorse he needed that race but absolutley loves Oaklawn so I think he could rebound tomorrow.

The Arkansas Derby
1. Stat
2. Secret Circle
3. Bodemeister

Todd Pletcher is on fire and I think Stat will break through in the Arkansas Derby and I think the Arkansas three year olds are not necessarily the strongest group and a newcomer like Stat is the play.

 The Charles Town Classic
1. Uh Oh Bango
2. Duke Of Mischeif
3. Pants On Fire

I love Uh Oh Bango here, I do not think there is one standout in this race and he is very consistent I think he will get an ok trip. Duke of Mischief has been succesful at Charles Town and I think that is a key attribute for a horse in this race, but I do not love his form so I think the race goes to Uh Oh Bango.

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Derby Top 20 4/10/12

Derby Top 20
1. Gemologist- I loved how hard he fought in the Wood, loves Churchill
2. Creative Cause- Santa Anita Derby was discouraging
3. Daddy Nose Best- Work was good, under rated, will be a nice price on Derby Day
4. Union Rags- I keep waiting for him to step up on the big day
5. Hansen- Bluegrass is a really tough race, track is playing to speed though
6. I'll Have Another- I am thinking bounce in the Derby
7. Bodemeister- needs to win Arkansas Derby to get in Derby, he very well could though
8. Went the Day Well- graded earnings are all of the sudden an issue, but he should get in.
9. Alpha- Was never going to get by Gemologist but his race was very impressive
10. Take Charge Indy- He should get good trip in Derby, may not be good enough
11. Dullahan- Bluegrass will be a good test on how good he is, but dirt is question
12. Secret Circle- He has the earnings whether Arkansas derby goes well or not
13.Mark Valeski- I hope he gets in he is a good racehorse
14. Daddy Long Legs- I don't get it his BC Juvenile was awful
15. Prospective- He has not done anything wrong yet this year
16. Howe Great- needs graded earnings and Bluegrass is tough, but he is a winner
17. Wrote- He has the graded earnings as well O'Brien wants a derby but I dont think this is the horse
18. Liason- The horse does not want dirt, get over it, but he has the earnings
19. Sabercat- Needs a huge step up in Arkansas Derby, if not Derby should not be next step
20. Done Talking- I thought Illinois Derby was good, his Remsen was good, he can run.

Sidenote- El Padrino is a ton of trouble, I don't think he can get in, and Trinniberg is more likely for Preakness although he has enough Graded earnings.

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Weekend Selections 4/7/12

This weekends feautres big race days at Aqueduct, Santa Anita, Hawthorne, and opening weekend at Keeneland. I will pick the 11 graded stakes races around the country this weekend.

The Comely
1. Millionreasonswhy
2. Welcome Guest
3. Broadway's Alibi

The Bay Shore
1. Trinniberg
2. How Do I Win
3. King and Crusader

The Wood Memorial
1. The Lumber Guy
2. Gemologist
3. Street Life

The Carter
1. Caleb's Posse
2. Shackleford
3.Jackson Bend

The Illinois Derby
1. Done Talking
2. Currency Swap
3. Pretension

Santa Anita

Santa Anita Derby
1. Holy Candy (Assuming he runs)
2. Creative Cause
3. Midnight Transfer
4. Liason

1. Killer Graces
2. Lady of Shamrock
3. Charm the Maker

Potrero Grande
1. Sway Away
2. Amazombie
3. Courtside


1. State of Play
2. Monastic
3. Icon Ike

The Ashland
1. Dixie Strike
2. Stephanie's Kitten
3. Heart of Destiny

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Derby Top 20

There is quite the shakeup in this week's Derby top 20, following major preps there are new horses cracking the top 10 and top 20.

1. Creative Cause- Number 1 because everyone else is falling off, but he is very good.
2. Daddy Nose Best- Love this horse very consistent, seems like he will love Derby Distance
3. Union Rags- He will bounce back but how good is he really?
4. Hansen- Bluegrass is a good choice I think same pattern as Juvenile
5. Gemologist- Yet to lose, Wood Memorial is good test
6. Bodemeister- next race is crucial
7. I'll Have Another- Santa Anita Derby will be a deciding point on this colt
8. Went the Day Well- I loved his spiral effort
9. Take Charge Indy- I liked his Florida Derby but I am not convinced, everything went his way
10. Dullahan- I am not convinced on his dirt ability
11. Howe Great- Very consistent, yet to run a bad race, Bluegrass is next
12. Mark Valeski- We will see I think he is tough, threw a shoe might surprise people on Derby Day
13. Liason- Derby might be a race that suits him, needs to show more though
14. El Padrino- Pretty dissapointed in his Florida Derby effort he hs the ability to bounce back though
15. Secret Circle- The distance keeps getting longer but he keeps winning
16. Alpha- I am really not a fan after watching his replays has not beaten a soul
17. My Adonis- Has fired every time except Delta Jackpot should run well in Wood
18. The Lumber Guy- I really like this horse watch out for him in Wood, he will be my selection
19. Prospective- Very consistent needs to get better
20. Holy Candy- His maiden win was great but he is playing catch up

Daddy Long Legs and Wrote are both being pointed to Derby but I do not get it, Daddy Long Legs hated the dirt in the the Breeders Cup I do not know what would change now, just because he is by Scat Daddy does not mean he will suddenly love dirt.