Monday, April 15, 2013

Kentucky Derby Top 20 #6

The major preps have ended, and trainers are shipping their horses to Churchill Downs. After winning performances by Java's War in the Bluegrass Stakes, Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby the Kentucky Derby field has essentially taken shape. With under three weeks to go until the First Saturday in May, the Kentucky Derby Top 20 is almost stuck in cement.

Kentucky Derby Top 20
1. Verrazano- He will the morning line favorite, and deserves it.
2. Revolutionary- Whichever jockey rides him, they need to keep him out of trouble.
3. Orb- He is a magnificent looking colt, with the connections in his corner. A fast pace would aid him.
4. Normandy Invasion- Javier Castellano chose him, a decisive move. Is he good enough outside of Aqueduct?
5. Goldencents- He will be near the pace under Krigger, but if he gets dirt in his face, will he go on?
6. Overanalyze- Dominant in the Arkansas Derby, the field was suspect but he took care of business
7. It'smyluckyday- Flying under the radar, if he returns to Holy Bull form he is extremely dangerous
8. Oxbow- Another brutal trip in the Arkansas Derby, he is not one to throw out
9. Java's War- He ran phenomenally in the Bluegrass Stakes, but is he really as good on dirt
10. Palice Malice- He is doing a mini Triple Crown coming into the Kentucky Derby, but boy is he talented
11. Vyjack- He was sent to Fair Hill to recover, which is a bit of a concern, I have many questions, especially about distance.
12. Myute- Similar to Vyjack, there are distance questions, really no excuse for not winning the Louisiana Derby after hitting the lead.
13. Governor Charlie- Possibly the only horse for Baffert in the field, needs to step up
14. Will Take Charge- Rebel Stakes did not hold up particularly well, but liked the move to give him time coming into the Derby
15. Lines of Battle- Dirt is the question with him, and the UAE Derby was brutally slow
16. Frac Daddy- Connections were hard pressed to get him into the Kentucky Derby, and the performance in the Arkansas Derby was good enough to get him in, but he is not good enough.
17. Black Onyx- He moves down, because the Spiral form is struggling to hold up
18. Charming Kitten- Dirt is a major question, but it looks like he is getting in.
19. Falling Sky- His point will get him in the Derby, but he is just a pace factor
20. Departing- He would be in the top 15, but not sure he is going to get in.

Monday, April 8, 2013

Kentucky Derby Top 20 #5

The last edition of the Kentucky Derby Top 20 was prior to the Louisiana Derby, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, and Santa Anita Derby. There is plenty of shake-up this week. With the impressive performances by Revolutionary, Orb, Verrazano, and Goldencents, and the unfortunate defections of Flashback and Hear the Ghost we are reminded of the roller coaster that is the Kentucky Derby trail.

Kentucky Derby Top 20
1. Verrazano- Re-watched his Wood Memorial performance, it was really good, he is the horse to beat. 
2. Revolutionary- I had him number 1 but Castellano jumping ship was a major factor and moved him down one. 
3. Orb- He was impressive in his Florida Derby win, but the race was slow. 
4. Normandy Invasion- He ran well in the Wood, he is going to be bet down on the first Saturday in May
5. Oxbow- I like this horse a lot, he always fires. A good effort in the Arkansas Derby bumps him up
6. Goldencents- Great performance in 9 furlong SA Derby, with 105 Beyer he is a danger, but 10 furlongs is a MAJOR question 
7. It'smyluckyday- Florida Derby was essentially a race off the layoff, so he may improve on Derby day, but I do not think he is good enough to win
8. Vyjack- He had every chance to get by Verrazano, distance is a question. 
9. Mylute- Had every chance to get by Revolutionary, distance a major question.
10. Will Take Charge- Yet to put two races together but coming into the Derby fresh may be to his benefit 
11. Governor Charlie- Moves up because he has the points, Sunland Derby field was weak
12. Java's War- Has every chance to move up with good effort in the Bluegrass 
13. Black Onyx- He is in, and he is consistent 
14. War Academy- Time for him to step up in Arkansas Derby 
15. Den's Legacy- Needs a big effort, to stay in the hunt in the Arkansas Derby 
16. Lines Of Battle- He is in the Derby for O'Brien, hopefully runs better than Daddy Long Legs
17. Uncaptured- Ran well off the layoff in the Spiral, may be favorite in Bluegrass
18. Overanalyze- Needs to rebound in a HUGE way in Arkansas Derby to stay on this list
19. Falling Sky- He has run well in every start this year, may be overmatched 
20. Departing- If he gets in, he is dangerous