Monday, January 26, 2015

141st Kentucky Derby Top 20 List

With the Kentucky Derby 95 days away, and the prep races well under way, it is time for my first Kentucky Derby top 20 list. An impressive list of three year old colts are being point to the First Saturday in May, led by 2014 Breeders Cup Juvenile (GI) winner Texas Red, American Pharaoh the Eclipse Award champion, and Upstart a very impressive winner this past weekend, and the undefeated Dortmund. Read below to know my Top 20 horses for the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby.

1. Texas Red- Won the biggest race for 2yo's in 2014 in impressive fashion, love how he covers the ground. The way he dominated last out indicates he is a special colt.

2. Imperia- Fired a strong second in his first try on dirt in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stk (GII) at Churchill Downs. He really should only improve with added dirt experience, and is certainly bred well enough.

3. Upstart- Talented colt could not have been more impressive in saturday's Holy Bull (GII) at Gulfstream Park. He should only improve off that effort and will be extremely dangerous down the road.

4. Dortmund- This undefeated colt for trainer Bob Baffert has done nothing wrong to this point. I am just skeptical of the quality of the Los Alamitos Futurity, in which he needed everything he had to win.

5. Frosted- Stablemate of Imperia has strung together two solid second place finishes in graded company in his last two outings. I believe he is extremely talented and is capable against any of these.

6. American Pharaoh- The 2yo Eclipse Award champion is just getting underway after an injury knocked him out of the Breeders Cup. He would be much higher on this list if not for the injury.

7. Carpe Diem- This horse did not have an easy trip in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (GI) as one of the favorites. He has proven he is talented and this Grade 1 winner is still very much a contender.

8. Calculator- This colt broke his maiden in a stakes race last time out in the Sham Stakes (G3) impressively at Santa Anita. Prior to that he chased American Pharoah and Texas Red around but seemed matured and improved last time out against a relatively weak field.

9. El Kabeir- This John Terranova trainee has improved in his last two winning the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stk. as Churchill and followed that performance up by dominating a weak field in the GII Jerome at Aqueduct. Defeated #2 Imperia at Churchill, but believe it was biased aided.

10. Firing Line- Was just beaten by Dortmund in the Los Alamitos Futurity (GI), and was arguably better. I do want to see him repeat that effort, but he could quickly rise up with a good effort.

11. Leave the Light On
12. Daredevil
13. International Star
14. Mr. Z
15. Far Right
16. Tiznow R J
17. Competitive Edge
18. J S Bach
19. Ocho Ocho Ocho
20. Bluegrass Singer