142nd Kentucky Derby In-Depth Horse by Horse Analysis and Selections

The 142^nd Running of the Kentucky Derby 

Churchill Downs 

Post Time 6:34 PM ET

TV: NBC 4:00-7:30 PM ET 

May 7th, 2016

This year’s Kentucky Derby features Nyquist’s quest to become the first undefeated horse to win the Kentucky Derby since Big Brown in 2008. 

The beauty of this year’s run for the roses is the vast impact it will have throughout the horse racing industry from the breeding shed to the racetrack. While Nyquist is the main story, his sire Uncle Mo is as well. This year is Uncle Mo’s first crop of three year olds and from that crop three of them will be in this year’s race: Nyquist, Mo Tom, and Outwork. Uncle Mo himself scratched the day prior to his attempt at the Kentucky Derby and it will be fascinating to see if his progeny will be able to avenge their sire's Kentucky Derby misfortune. 

The leading sire in the United States today is Tapit, and three colts in the race, Mohaymen, Creator and Lani, will represent him. 

This year's Kentucky Derby field is incredibly wide open behind the 3-1 favorite Nyquist, making it a very unpredictable and exciting renewal of the race. 

Below is my horse-by-horse analysis for the 142^ND Kentucky Derby. My picks for the race are at the bottom. Enjoy the race!

*Indicates number of Kentucky Derby victories

#1 Trojan Nation Trainer: Patrick Gallagher Jockey: Aaron Gryder Odds: 50-1

Trojan Nation comes into the Kentucky Derby, still a maiden, meaning he has never won a race. Trojan Nation was able to qualify for the Kentucky Derby when he finished second by only a nose to Outwork in the GI Wood Memorial Stakes.  Trojan Nation will be another horse launching from far back in the Derby. It is difficult to read whether Trojan Nation improved because of the slop or the pace collapse in front of him but surely both helped. This horse will have to really step up his game to compete in the Derby. 

#2 Suddenbreakingnews Trainer: Donnie Von Hemel Jockey: Luis Quinonez Odds: 20-1

Suddenbreakingnews spent his entire Derby prep season by competing at Oaklawn Park, first winning the GIII Southwest in a dramatic rush from last place. Following that performance he was a troubled fifth in the GII Rebel Stakes, and finally he was a fast closing second in the GI Arkansas Derby behind Creator. Suddenbreakingnews is another late running horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby. He will be equipped with a shadow roll for the first time in an attempt to enhance his focus. Contrary to horses like Whitmore and Creator who make their big run on the turn and attempt to sustain it through the stretch, in all of his races Suddenbreakingnews did not make his late run until the stretch. If he is going to run a fast closing third or fourth in the Kentucky Derby a late stretch run is feasible, but if he is going to win the Derby, he needs to start his run earlier on to ensure he can get to the wire first. Suddenbreakingnews is certainly a horse people are talking about heading into Saturday.  Coupled with his explosive burst and a good workout leading up to the race, he has a legitimate chance to hit the board.

#3 Creator Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Odds: 10-1

Creator, a rapidly improving son of Tapit, comes into the Kentucky Derby off a victory in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Prior to his victory Creator also finished a fast closing third in the Rebel Stakes. There are plenty of things to like about Creator. In every start since he has turned three, Creator has improved, a positive sign heading into the Derby. Creator should relish the Derby distance. As the distance has lengthened this horse has just gotten better. While he has not won at Churchill Downs, he has been effective at the track with two-second place finishes. There are two negatives with Creator, the first being his running style. Like so many other horses in this year's race Creator is a deep closer, a hinderance if there is a slow pace. Second, since he was moved to Oaklawn Park he has really improved. Creator was 0/5 outside of Oaklawn and since moving to Oaklawn he has two wins and an impressive third. It remains to be seen if Creator can be as effective outside of Oaklawn Park. That being said, Creator has an explosive and sustained turn of foot so he must be respected as a major player in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

#4 Mo Tom Trainer: Thomas Amoss Jockey: Corey Lanerie 
Odds: 20-1

Mo Tom comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a disappointing fourth place finish in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. After winning the GIII LeComte Stakes at the Fair Grounds in January, Mo Tom was poised to become a star on the Derby trail. After two very tough trips in both the GII Veterans Ford Risen Star Stakes and the Louisiana Derby, Mo Tom will be a long shot on Saturday. Mo Tom is a tough read because of his two atrocious trips.  It is impossible to say where he would have finished with clean ones, but I am fairly certain he would not have defeated Gun Runner. Mo Tom is another horse in the race that makes his run from the back of the pack, which will not help his chances. If Mo Tom gets a clean trip, he is in with a shot to hit the board but that is a big if.

#5 Gun Runner Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Florent Geroux Odds: 10-1

It has been twenty years since Grindstone won the Kentucky Derby in 1996 using the Louisiana Derby as his final prep run for the Run for the Roses. This year Gun Runner will attempt to follow in Grindstone’s footsteps. Gun Runner comes into the Kentucky Derby with a very solid record of four wins from five career starts. After spending his two-year-old season racing in Kentucky, where he competed twice over the Churchill Downs surface, Gun Runner spent the winter in New Orleans at the Fair Grounds racetrack where he flourished. In two starts at the Fair Grounds Gun Runner won twice, taking the GII Veterans Ford Risen Stakes on February 20^th, and the GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby on March 26^th.

Gun Runner was very impressive in the Louisiana Derby, sitting close to the pace, and then kicking away from the field in the stretch for a decisive win. Gun Runner has a high cruising speed, a positive weapon in a race like this year’s that lacks significant pace. There are concerns with Gun Runner though: mainly being the competition he beat this winter may be suspect.  Since the Louisiana Derby has only produced two Kentucky Derby winners in the past, the strength of the prep races Gun Runner has competed in must be questioned.  Although rain is not in the forecast, on the off chance it does rain, Gun Runner’s lone defeat came in the mud at Churchill Downs. I respect Gun Runner, and believe he has a major chance on Saturday.

#6 My Man Sam Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. 
Odds: 20-1

My Man Sam comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a second place finish in his stakes debut in the GI Toyota Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. My Man Sam breaking from the outside in the race dropped into last in the field of fourteen before making a late run to finish second. My Man Sam joins the list of deep closers in this year’s Kentucky Derby and will need to step up his game to be competitive, but this is not impossible. The Derby will only be the fifth start of My Man Sam’s career and so improvement could in the cards. Even so, I just do not believe My Man will be quite good enough to hit the board on Saturday.

#7 Oscar Nominated Trainer: Mike Maker Jockey: Julien Leparoux Odds: 50-1

Oscar Nominated will be one of the longest shots in the Derby and for good reason. Oscar Nominated comes into the Derby by way of winning the GIII Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on their synthetic racetrack. Oscar Nominated was able to wear down a weak field filled with turf horses to win at odds over 20-1. The Derby will be Oscar Nominated’s first career start on dirt, and I do not foresee him being able to handle it well. Oscar Nominated seems to be overmatched in this year’s Derby.

#8 Lani Trainer: Mikio Matsunaga Jockey: Yutaka Take 
Odds: 30-1

Lani comes into the Kentucky Derby as the biggest “unknown.” Lani is a US bred son of Tapit who made the first five starts of his career in Japan. In Japan Lani was able to win two of his five starts and showed enough promise for his connections to take him to Dubai for the GII UAE Derby. In the UAE Derby Lani was a bit erratic, refusing to enter the starting gate, then stumbling when leaving the gate. In the beginning of the race Lani showed little interest, dropping out to the back of the pack. Entering the backstretch Lani made a big wide move all the way up into second and eventually wore down the pacesetter to win. The UAE Derby was a very weak field and the favorite in the race had a terrible trip, but it did take quite the performance by Lani to win.  Lani’s training since arriving in Kentucky has been a roller coaster and it seems he has quite a bit of attitude. Lani has talent, but his mind and his global travel make him a very big long shot in this year’s race.

#9 Destin Trainer: Todd Pletcher* Jockey: Javier Castellano 
Odds: 15-1

Destin comes into the Kentucky Derby having not raced in eight weeks which is a long layoff for a Derby contender. Destin’s last race came in the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.  In that race he sat off the pace and closed stoutly to run down stable mate Outwork. Destin improved leaps and bounds this winter with two impressive wins both at Tampa Bay. Destin’s connections felt he ran so well in the Tampa Bay Derby they decided not to run him again before the Derby. While Destin has been preparing for the Derby both Outwork and Brody’s Cause, two horses he beat in the Tampa Bay Derby came back to win major GI preps. Destin is a key player in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

#10 Whitmore Trainer: Ron Moquett Jockey: Victor Espinoza *** Odds:  20-1

Whitmore comes into the Kentucky Derby off of three straight in the money finishes in the Southwest Stakes (2^nd) Rebel Stakes (2^nd) and the Arkansas Derby (3^rd). In each race coming into the turn Whitmore looked poised to win, making a sweeping move, but each time he wasn’t able to close the deal in the stretch. I believe Whitmore is just not quite good enough to be a major factor in this race. He is a nice horse, and gets the services of Triple Crown winning jockey Victor Espinoza, but I believe on Saturday this task will prove too difficult for Whitmore and Espinoza.

#11 Exaggerator Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux*** 
Odds:  8-1

Exaggerator comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a dominating performance in the GI Santa Anita Derby on April 9th. The major caveat regarding the Santa Anita Derby is that the race was run over a very sloppy track. Exaggerator relished the adverse conditions while main rivals Danzing Candy and Mor Spirit really were never able to grasp the track. Not only did Exaggerator take to the track significantly better than the others, the red-hot pace in front of him collapsed allowing for a perfect set up. If for some reason the weather forecast was incorrect and the Derby was run over a sloppy surface, Exaggerator would likely go off as the favorite.  I don’t believe Exaggerator will make a significant impact on this year’s Kentucky Derby.

#12 Tom’s Ready Trainer: Dallas Stewart Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.  
Odds: 30-1

Tom’s Ready comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a second place finish in the GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at the Fairgrounds behind Gun Runner. Tom’s Ready only has one win from nine starts and although he has finished second in two-graded stake race he seems a cut below the best in here. I expect him to be mid-pack throughout the race but I do not see him making a meaningful impact in the closing stages.

#13 Nyquist Trainer: Doug O’Neil* Jockey: Mario Gutierrez* Odds: 3-1

Nyquist is going to be the favorite come post time for the Derby, and deservedly so. In seven career starts Nyquist is unbeaten. He has won grade one races in California, Kentucky, and Florida and has won races between five and nine furlongs. Nyquist is versatile, he is able to go the front in races, but also come from behind as he did when winning the GI Breeders Cup Juvenile at Keeneland this past fall. In his two prep races for the Derby he has been flawless. Trainer Doug O’Neil began Nyquist's 2016 campaign in the seven-furlong GII San Vicente at Santa Anita. In this sprint race Nyquist was able to take command early and fight off the closers including fellow Derby starter Exaggerator.  Chasing a $1,000,000 bonus, Nyquist was shipped to Gulfstream Park for a showdown with Mohaymen in the GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby. In the nine furlong test Nyquist was dominant, going straight to the lead and never looking back. Nyquist is tough, undefeated, and a deserving favorite, but there are still knocks against him. I still question whether or not he will be at his best going the Derby distance of ten furlongs. Second, I have not been impressed with his preparation. Nyquit has jogged an awful lot for a top Derby contender and his breezes at Keeneland did not impress me. If Nyquist is able to win he will become the fourth straight post time favorite, following Orb, California Chrome and American Pharoah, to capture the Run for the Roses.

In a Kentucky Derby that is as wide open even an unbeaten favorite is vulnerable, so while a Nyquist victory will not be surprising, I am picking against him.

#14 Mohaymen Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin Jockey: Junior Alvarado 
Odds: 10-1

Prior to the GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby, Mohaymen was the Kentucky Derby favorite. Undefeated in five prior starts, Mohaymen looked to be the total package, but in the Florida Derby, Mohaymen struggled, never fully getting into the bridle early and fading late to be fourth. One can take the Florida Derby as a true representation of form regarding Mohaymen or a fluke. I believe Mohaymen is a nice horse but the competition he faced throughout his entire career has been suspect. During Mohaymen’s five race win streak only one horse won a graded stakes race after being defeated by Mohaymen, Flexibility, who is no longer on the Triple Crown trail. Also only one other horse was able to run in the top three in a graded stakes race after losing to Mohaymen and that horse, Fellowship, ran third in the Florida Derby. The competition Mohaymen has defeated has not panned out in any way shape or form and for that reason I am not picking him in this year's Kentucky Derby. I still believe he is very talented and would not be shocked in any way if he proved me wrong. 

#15 Outwork Trainer: Todd Pletcher* Jockey: John Velasquez* Odds: 15-1

Outwork comes in to the Kentucky Derby off of a gutsy victory in the slop in the GI Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct. In only his fourth career start, Outwork was involved in a hot early pace and then held off the late closing Trojan Nation to win by a nose. Outwork has come a long way in a short period of time. After beginning his career at Keeneland as a two year old, this son of Uncle Mo came off of a long layoff to win an allowance race at Tampa Bay Downs going six furlongs. In only his third career start, off of only a sprint race, Outwork set the pace in the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, and ended up being caught late by his stablemate Destin. Outwork improved off that effort to win the slowly run Wood Memorial. I love Outwork. He seems to be an improving colt, with both heart and speed. Outwork will be close to the pace, which should be an advantage in this year’s race. In his last work coming up to the race he was breathtaking, showing his affinity for the Churchill Downs surface. I expect Outwork to take another major step forward off of his last race, and he is my pick to win this year’s Kentucky Derby.

#16 Shagaf Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Joel Rosario* 
Odds: 20-1

Shagaf enters the Kentucky Derby off a fifth place finish in the GI Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct. Prior to this performance Shagaf won the GIII Gotham Stakes also at Aqueduct. There could be two explanations for Shagaf’s performance in the Wood Memorial:  he didn’t handle the slop and the other is the small amount of traffic he ran into turning for home. The second reason is far more concerning for me. Turning for home Shagaf looked like he was going to win the Wood Memorial easily when he encountered enough traffic to the point where he had to wait for a few strides, and when a hole opened up he was empty fading back to fifth. Shagaf is a big long striding horse, and in my opinion he cannot afford to be stopped in traffic, and then be able to kick into high gear again. In a field as big as the Kentucky Derby, traffic at some point in the race is almost inevitable and being able to handle it is key. I don’t believe Shagaf will be able to handle traffic trouble well enough to win or be factor in the Kentucky Derby.

#17 Mor Spirit Trainer: Bob Baffert**** Jockey: Gary Stevens*** Odds: 12-1

If he is good enough, Mor Spirit certainly has the right connections to win the Kentucky Derby. His trainer Bob Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby four times, including last year with Triple Crown winning American Pharoah.  His jockey Gary Stevens has won the Derby 3 times. In seven career starts Mor Spirit has never finished worse than second. He is a two time graded stakes winner and comes into the race off a distant second to Exaggerator in the GI Santa Anita Derby. Throughout his career Mor Spirit has been better over a fast dirt track which he should get on Saturday. I don’t love that he comes in off two straight defeats, and that he has struggled to win against top-level competition.  I expect Stevens to place Mor Spirit much closer to the pace and I think he is a player to hit the board on his best day. 

#18 Majesto Trainer: Gustavo Delgado Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo Odds: 30-1

Majesto comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a good second place finish in the GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby behind Nyquist. Majesto spent all winter in Florida and seems like an improving horse that should love the added distance. My worry regarding Majesto is that he probably is not good enough to strike a serious blow Saturday. Majesto in many ways finished second by “default” in the Florida Derby as Nyquist blew away the field and Mohaymen failed to fire. Majesto grinded out a second place finish. In the Kentucky Derby the water gets much deeper for Majesto.

#19 Brody’s Cause Trainer: Dale Romans Jockey: Luis Saez Odds: 12-1

Brody’s Cause loves Keeneland, but unfortunately the Kentucky Derby is not run at Keeneland. In his two starts at Keeneland he has won two Grade 1 races including his last start, the GI Toyota Bluegrass Stakes. Brody’s Cause is another closer in a Derby field that is full of them. In his last race as with many of the Derby preps, the race-favored closers. The top three in the Bluegrass came from tenth, eleventh and fourteenth place as the speed collapsed in front of them. The problem with the Bluegrass Stakes was the field really lacked quality and Brody’s Cause was able to take advantage. In my estimation it is was the worst Derby prep in terms of quality and for that reason I don’t believe Brody’s Cause will be good enough to win this year’s Kentucky Derby.

#20 Danzing Candy Trainer: Clifford Sise Jr. Jockey: Mike Smith* Odds: 15-1

Danzing Candy will be on the lead early in the Kentucky Derby. In most years this is not necessarily the best place to be since the Derby typically is filled with speed, but this year is different. With what seems to be a Derby generally void of speed, Danzing Candy may manufacture a fairly good trip. In his last start in the GI Santa Anita Derby, he went to the lead and opened up a large lead setting aggressive fractions in the slop before fading badly to finish fourth behind Exaggerator. Prior to his effort in the Santa Anita Derby, Danzing Candy led all the way to win the GII San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Danzing Candy may have just despised the slop last out, and a dry track on Saturday makes him dangerous. Breaking from the outside post means jockey Mike Smith will have to use Danzing Candy to clear the field and get over to the rail. In doing so Smith runs the risk of invigorating Danzing Candy to the point where he runs off, much like he did in his last race. I also believe there are distance concerns with Danzing Candy but if he is able to dictate the pace and set relatively slow fractions he is one to watch.

Projected Pace

Early Speed

#13 Nyquist

#15 Outwork

#20 Danzing Candy

Stalkers

#5 Gun Runner

#9 Destin

#14 Mohaymen

#17 Mor Spirit

 Mid Pack

#6 My Man Sam 

#7 Oscar Nominated

#8 Lani

#12 Tom’s Ready

#16 Shagaf

#18 Majesto

Closers

#1 Trojan Nation

#2 Suddenbreakingnews

#3 Creator

#4 Mo Tom 

#11 Exaggerator

#10 Whitmore

#19 Brody’s Cause

Picks for the 142^nd Kentucky Derby

1.  #15 Outwork 15-1

2.  #5 Gun Runner 10-1

3.  #3 Creator 10-1

4.  #2 Suddenbreakingnews 20-1

Longshot- #9 Destin 15-1 

141st Kentucky Derby In-Depth Horse by Horse analysis and selections

The 141^st Kentucky Derby is slated to be the deepest and most contentious running of the 1 ¼ miles race in years.  The two favorites will be the superstar American Pharaoh and the undefeated Dortmund, both horses trained by Bob Baffert. Trainer Todd Pletcher starts four horses in this year’s Kentucky Derby led by leading contenders Carpe Diem and Materiality.  He also has outsiders Itsaknockout and Stanford. The race also draws international intrigue by way of the Irish bred Mubtaahij. Trained by the South African Mike De Kock and ridden by Belgium Jockey Christophe Soumillion, Mubtaahij comes off a dominating win in Dubai and has a major chance to contend.  Other top contenders include the talented colts coming off major prep race wins such as International Star, Frosted, and Firing Line. All of this makes this year’s Run for the Roses very intriguing as it runs deep with storylines as well as legitimate talent. Read below for my horse-by-horse analysis. At the very bottom are my top three selections along with my projected pace scenario and threatening long shots.  Good luck and enjoy the 141^ST Kentucky Derby! 

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (50-1)

Ocho Ocho Ocho, trained by Jim Cassidy and ridden by Elvis Trujillo is coming off of a third place finish behind Carpe Diem and Danzig Moon in the GI Toyota Bluegrass at Keeneland. In the Bluegrass Ocho Ocho Ocho, set the pace, pressed every step of the way by Carpe Diem before fading to third. From the rail postposition Ocho Ocho Ocho is expected to go straight to the lead. While Ocho Ocho Ocho is a hard trying colt, I believe this race is too tough for him, and while he may finish mid pack, I do not expect anything better than that.

2. Carpe Diem (8-1)

Carpe Diem, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Hall of Famer John Velasquez comes into the Kentucky off an impressive victory as the odds on favorite in the GI Toyota Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland.  Prior to that win, Carpe Diem captured the GII Tampa Bay Derby, and was second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. Carpe Diem is likely to go off third betting choice off of his impressive record, having never finished worse than second in five career starts. This colt is coming into the race well and has a very adaptable running style. From the second postposition Carpe Diem will have to break well and get a good position behind the main group of leaders. Throughout his career though, Carpe Diem has yet to run a very fast race, and in this year’s Kentucky Derby, a very fast race is going to be required. I think Carpe Diem is a very talented horse and fully expect him to run in the top 5 but I will not have him in my top 3.

3. Materiality (12-1)

Materiality, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Javier Castellano comes into the Kentucky Derby off a win in the GI Florida Derby where in only his third career start he defeated the much more seasoned Upstart. Materiality, in only three starts has made a rapid ascension from having never started to one of the main contenders in the Run for the Roses.  History is against Materiality as he is attempting to become the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby having never made a start at 2 since Apollo captured the race in 1882. Materiality did not draw particularly well. From the third postposition Materiality will have to be hustled out of the gate to gain position. I believe Materiality is talented but his lack of season combined with being another one of the main speed horses in the race will be too much to overcome for this colt with a bright future.

4. Tencendur (30-1)

Tencendur, is trained by George Weaver and ridden by Manuel Franco. This colts comes off of a second place finish to Frosted in the GI Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. In the Wood, the New York bred colt opened up a three-length lead until Frosted inhaled him in the final sixteenth under mild urging. Tencendur is going to be a large long shot in this year’s Kentucky Derby and is another horse that will likely be close to the pace, and it would seem the task on Saturday is too tall for Tencendur.

5. Danzig Moon (30-1)
            Danzig Moon, trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Julien Leparoux comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a very good second to Carpe Diem in the GI Toyota Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. In the Bluegrass, Danzig Moon was wide into the first turn and ended up making a sustained rally around the clubhouse turn and through the stretch to power past Ocho Ocho Ocho and pull within a few lengths of Carpe Diem. Danzig Moon looks like a colt that should relish the added distance of the Kentucky Derby, and it seems Danzig Moon has really become the buzz horse at Churchill Downs this week. Reports from Louisville indicate that his gallops and workouts have been very strong. Danzig Moon could end up passing tired horses in the stretch and he has an outside chance to hit the board.

6. Mubtaahij  (20-1)

Mubtaahij, trained by Mike De Kock, and ridden by Christophe Soumillion comes into the Derby off of a spectacular win in the GII UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai. Mubtaahij began his career in England before being taken to Dubai for the winter where he began to thrive. Since being moved to the dirt by De Kock, this colt has won four of his five starts and seems to be improving with every dirt start. Mubtaahij has already competed in one Triple Crown having danced every dance in the UAE Triple Crown, winning two of the three legs. In the UAE Derby, the final leg, Mubtaahij tracked the leaders, enduring plenty of kick back before exploding outside of rivals to register a dominating victory. The dirt surface at Meydan is supposedly very similar to that of Churchill Downs, which is positive since Mubtaahij was so successful over that surface. I expect Mubtaahij to be mid pack early, before unleashing his trademark kick in the end. The long traveling distance and improved competition are definite question marks regarding this colt, but given his impressive record of racing, he should have a sufficient base of conditioning. Mubtaahij will not only be carrying the hopes of South Africa, and Dubai, but mine as well. He is my top selection to win the 141^st running of the Kentucky Derby.

7. El Kabeir (30-1)

SCRATCHED 

8. Dortmund (3-1)

Dortmund, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia is undefeated in six career starts. The massive colt has defeated every rival that has run against him, but in his last two starts, the GI Santa Anita Derby and the GII San Felipe Stakes, Dortmund has demolished those that have tried. Dortmund will be the second choice in the betting behind his stable mate American Pharaoh, and deservingly so; but Dortmund will not be among my selections. Due to Dortmund’s incredible size, working out a trip capable of winning the Kentucky Derby seems doubtful. In both of his most recent wins Dortmund was given an easy lead. In the Derby, Dortmund will not be on the lead. Dortmund drew just fine and should be relatively close to the pace from his postposition if he breaks well. I still envision Dortmund briefly behind horses and getting dirt in his face, something he has never really done, and for that reason I am leaving Dortmund off of my top selections.

9. Bolo (30-1)

Bolo, trained by Carla Gaines and ridden by Rafael Bejarano comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a third place finish to Dortmund in the GI Santa Anita Derby. Bolo began his career on grass and was very impressive. Since being switched to dirt by Gaines, Bolo has performed well, finishing third in both the GII San Felipe and as mentioned above the Santa Anita Derby. Bolo had excuses as well in both races; coming off a layoff in the San Felipe he may not have fired his best effort, and he was very wide throughout the entirety of the Santa Anita Derby. The problem with Bolo is that his better surface is grass. Bolo will have to be well more than capable on dirt to contend in this year’s Kentucky Derby, and I don’t see that happening.

10. Firing Line (12-1)

Firing Line, trained by Simon Callaghan and ridden by Hall of Famer and multiple Kentucky Derby winning jockey Gary Stevens comes into the Derby off of a dominating performance in the GIII Sunland Derby at Sunland Derby. In the Sunland Derby, Firing Line was an extremely heavy favorite and ran like that, bolting on to an impressive victory. He came in having knocked heads twice, and losing both times narrowly to the undefeated Dortmund. In the GII Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Firing Line actually passed Dortmund in the stretch before Dortmund re-rallied to beat him. Firing Line drew great in the #10 post position as jockey Gary Stevens will be able to judge the pace around him on both sides. I don’t like Firing Line for two reasons, the first being the distance. He is not is bred to run a mile and quarter, and in a field this competitive that will hurt his chances. Secondly, Firing Line is another horse in this race with a lot of early pace, and could be caught in an early pace duel. These combined factors make Firing Line a toss for me on Saturday.

11. Stanford (30-1)

SCRATCHED

12. International Star (20-1)

SCRATCHED 

13. Itsaknockout (30-1)

Itsaknockout, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Luis Saez comes into the Kentucky Derby off a dull fourth place finish in the GI Florida Derby.  Prior to that effort, Itsaknockout finished second behind Upstart but was placed first because Upstart interfered with him in the stretch.  Itsaknockout is lightly raced and will be a large long shot, but he clearly disliked the track Florida Derby day, and there should be improvement in this colt, but Saturday is not the day.  While the Derby should set up from him pace wise, I don’t believe he is talented enough to pose a serious threat, and out of the Pletcher quartet he is my third choice.

14. Keen Ice (50-1)

Keen Ice, trained by Dale Romans and ridden by Kent Desormeaux comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a fourth place finish in the GII Louisiana Derby. I believe the Louisiana Derby was the weakest of the major prep races. Keen Ice was not able to hit the board in that race, so I see very little chance that he will be able to make any sort of impact on the Kentucky Derby field. He is a deep closer in a race filled with speed, but there are closers such as Far Right who are more talented. I do not believe Keen Ice will be in contention on Saturday.

15. Frosted (15-1)

Frosted, trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and ridden by Joel Rosario comes in the Kentucky Derby off of an impressive victory at Aqueduct in the GI Wood Memorial. Prior to that, Frosted was a disappointing fourth in the GII Fountain of Youth, and second in GIII Holy Bull Stakes. Frosted, expected to be one of the top three year olds was slightly underwhelming in his first two starts of 2015, especially in the Fountain of Youth. Frosted turned for home with a lead when he did not finish as expected, stopping quickly and ran fourth. Following this effort trainer McLaughlin made changes including a slight throat surgery among other things coming into the Wood Memorial. In the Wood Memorial Frosted was kept out of trouble and under a confident ride, blew by long shot Tencendur.  Frosted was the best horse that day and was never thoroughly asked to run by Rosario. Frosted is extremely talented and if he runs his race will absolutely be right there at the wire. My only worry with Frosted is his mental toughness, and whether the 20-horse field will be intimidating, Frosted drew a great post, as he should be able to settle into a great rhythm.

16. War Story (50-1)

War Story, trained by Tom Amoss and ridden by Joe Talamo comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a disappointing third place effort in the GII Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds. His performance in Louisiana was against a much more inferior group of horses than he will face Saturday. If War Story could not make a legitimate impact in that race, he has very little shot of making one in the Run for the Roses. On top of this, multiple reports out of Churchill Downs indicate he is not training well coming into the race. I want no part of War Story on Saturday.

17. Mr. Z (50-1)

Mr. Z, trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by Ramon Vasquez. Mr. Z enters the Kentucky Derby off of a third place finish to American Pharaoh and Far Right in the GI Arkansas Derby. Mr. Z is the most heavily raced horse in the field having raced 12 times, but he has only finished first one time, in fact he has lost 11 straight races. In all likelihood, Mr. Z will be one of the longest shots on the board. Mr. Z always tries hard but he is unpredictable and under talented in terms of this year’s Kentucky Derby.  He is another one of those long shots that will be contesting the early pace making it even faster. Hopefully Mr. Z doesn’t take a sharp right like he did in the Smarty Jones, but even if he doesn’t, it is unlikely his trip around Churchill Downs on Saturday is successful. All reports out of Churchill Downs indicate Mr. Z is not training well, and I believe that is an indicator of how he will run.

18. American Pharaoh (5-2)

American Pharaoh, trained by Bob Baffert, and ridden by two-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Victor Espinoza, is a superstar. After being defeated in his career debut, American Pharaoh has been flawless. This colt has won four consecutive graded stakes races since that defeat, all with devastating ease. After being injured slightly towards the end of 2014, which forced him to miss a start in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, American Pharaoh returned in 2015 to dominate both of his starts at Oaklawn Park, the GII Rebel Stakes, and the Grade I Arkansas Derby.  The competition he faced in these races was not stellar, but, the ease and power in which he dominated them was impressive. American Pharaoh is the most talented and exciting horse in the race. From the #18 post American Pharaoh will stay clear of the traffic to his inside, but the possibility is there that he could go very wide into the first turn. Overall though, this is a good draw as he should be in the clear. In a race with a ton of early speed, American Pharaoh could get caught in an early pace battle, which could potentially soften him up in the closing strides of the race. If American Pharaoh is able to win the Derby with the fast at odds as short as 2-1 I will tip my hat to him, but until then I am picking against him to win.

19. Upstart (15-1)

Upstart, trained by Rick Violette and ridden by Jose Ortiz comes into the Derby off of a second place finish to Materiality in the GI Florida Derby at Gulfstream. Upstart, who has never finished worse than third in his career, crossed the wire first in two of his three prep races for the Kentucky Derby. In the GII Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, Upstart defeated Itsaknockout but was disqualified for interference and placed second.  Upstart was extremely impressive when defeating Frosted in winning the GII Holy Bull Stakes, but was not as visually impressive in either of his next two races. The Gulfstream Park racetrack surface was allegedly very deep both days and Upstart did not seem to handle it as well. I will not have Upstart in my selections.  Although he always runs his race, I think he may be a slight cut below in terms of talent. He also may have peaked a little early when he dominated the Holy Bull. Upstart always tries hard and I expect him to in the Derby, but I don’t think he will have a major impact. The #19 postposition will not help Upstart as he will have to fight to get good position in mid-pack.

20. Far Right (30-1)

            Far Right, trained by Ron Moquett and ridden by hall of famer Mike Smith comes off of a distant second place finish behind American Pharaoh in the GI Arkansas Derby. Prior to that performance, Far Right captured both the Smarty Jones Stakes and the GIII Southwest Stakes.  In a race filled with pace a deep closer like Far Right becomes intriguing. Although he may not be the most talented horse in the race, Far Right will be trying hard late and could pass tired horses in the stretch. Far Right reminds me of Commanding Curve or Golden Soul, as both horses were long shots and rallied late to finish second in the Kentucky Derby in the last two years respectively. While this year’s field is much deeper than previous years, the abundance of speed could allow for Far Right to come charging down the stretch under the Twin spires. Far Right is not in my top three, but he should be highly respected in trifectas and superfectas.  From postposition #20 Far Right should not be affected as he will break and drop back.

Kentucky Derby Selections

1.   Mubtaahij (20- 1)

2. Frosted (15-1) 

3. American Pharaoh (5/2)

Kentucky Derby Pace Scenario

Speed 

Ocho Ocho Ocho (1) Materiality (3) Tencendur (4) Dortmund (8) Firing Line (10)  Mr. Z (17) American Pharaoh (18)

Mid Pack

Carpe Diem (2) Mubtaahij (6) Bolo  (12) Frosted (15) Upstart (19)

Deep Closers

Danzig Moon (5) Itsaknockout (13) Keen Ice (14) War Story (16) Far Right (20)

Kentucky Derby Long Shot contendors

Far Right (30-1)

Danzig Moon (30-1)

Below are pictures I took of leading Kentucky Derby candidates from the Todd Pletcher barn Carpe Diem and Materiality. In these photos taken Tuesday, both horses are having their first school in the Churchill Downs paddock. Materiality is above while Carpe Diem is the second photo.

-Corbin Blumberg 

139th Kentucky Derby In-Depth Horse by Horse Analysis

Kentucky Derby Preview

The 139^th running of the Kentucky Derby is headlined by the undefeated Todd Pletcher trained Verrazano, the budding star and morning line favorite Orb, the Rick Pitino owned Goldencents, and the Louisiana Derby winner Revolutionary.  The Kentucky Derby distance of 1 ¼ miles is the longest distance any of these horses will have traveled. This years Derby, like every other year, is a handicapping challenge because of the depth and unpredictability of the 20 horse race. Below is an in-depth analysis of each horse in the race, and I hope to improve your knowledge on each entrant in this year’s Kentucky Derby. At the bottom will be my selections, enjoy the race and good luck!

Horse-by-Horse Kentucky Derby 139 Analysis

PP      Horse Name   ML Odds   Corbin’s Odds

1.        Black Onyx         50-1        50-1

Black Onyx comes into the Kentucky Derby off a victory in the Spiral Stakes (G3) on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park. The win, six weeks ago, gave Black Onyx his first graded stakes win and all 50 of his Kentucky Derby points. Trained by Kelly Breen and ridden by Joe Bravo, Black Onyx broke his maiden on a sloppy dirt track at Aqueduct as a 2 year old. Although Black Onyx has won on dirt, it was over a sloppy track, and his worst race to date came over a fast dirt track. He has done his best running so far on turf and polytrack and is a major question mark on dirt and in terms of his quality. The Spiral Stakes has turned out to be fairly weak, highlighted by the poor performance of Uncaptured in the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes (G1). Black Onyx drew a horrible post position, and he is a turf/synthetic horse running on dirt and on top of that he is not good enough. The morning line of 50-1 suits Black Onyx.

2.      Oxbow        30-1             25-1

Oxbow has the right connections to win a Kentucky Derby. He is trained by four-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer D. Wayne Lucas and ridden by three-time Derby winning jockey Gary Stevens. The team paired up to win the 1988 Kentucky Derby with winning colors. Oxbow comes into the Derby off a disappointing 5^th place finish in the Arkansas Derby. He was taken out of his element in the race and taken to the back of the pack. The draw hurts Oxbow, as now Gary Stevens will likely have to push him early to gain good position. Oxbow could be near the lead at the top of the stretch, but possibly being the pacesetter will take its toll on the Lukas trainee. I look for Oxbow to miss the top five here.

3. Revolutionary 10-1      8-1

Revolutionary is the first of five horses in the race trained by Todd Pletcher. Ridden by Hall of Famer and three-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel. Revolutionary broke his maiden in his fourth start, and has not lost since. After winning his first race in December in impressive fashion, Revolutionary scored in the Withers Stakes (G3) despite having an awful trip.  Following the Withers, Revolutionary scored an impressive victory in the Louisiana Derby, where he rallied wide and passed Mylute in the stretch to score by a neck. I look for Borel to drop Revolutionary down to the rail early in the race and let the speed develop in front of him. Revolutionary will certainly be running late, but because he is traffic prone, and I question the level of competition he has faced, he will not hit the board on Saturday.

4. Golden Soul 50-1      75-1

Golden Soul, trained by Dallas Stewart and ridden by Robby Alvarado was a late entrant into the Derby field. Coming off a late running fourth in the Louisiana Derby, Golden Soul is a huge long shot here.  Although he has never run a bad race, he has never been good enough to make a significant impact on a graded stakes race, and that will not change in the Kentucky Derby. While he may pass some tired horses late, he will not be a major factor.

5.  Normandy Invasion 12-1    10-1

Normandy Invasion, trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Javier Castellano comes into the Kentucky Derby off a second place effort in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) to undefeated Verrazano. Normandy Invasion made a strong run late to pass Vyjack and get up for second. Distance should not be a problem for this son of Tapit, and he has been training incredibly sharp since his arrival to Churchill Downs.  Prior to the Wood Memorial, Normandy Invasion made his seasonal debut in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds and had an awful trip finishing 5^th. Normandy Invasion has a tendency to break slow, and the break will be key for him. It is notable that his jockey Javier Castellano chose Normandy Invasion over Revolutionary.  If Castellano gets Normandy Invasion out of the gate and into a good spot, he is extremely dangerous. I look for Normandy Invasion to be in the top three.

6. Mylute  15-1    25-1

Mylute, trained by Tom Amoss and ridden by the nation’s leading jockey Rosie Napravnik, comes into the Derby off a good second in the Louisiana Derby (G2). While he ran really well, passing Revolutionary in the stretch, he eventually gave way and finished second. Due to the fervent popularity of his jockey, he is likely to be bet on more than he should. I do not see Mylute as a legitimate contender on Saturday.

7. Giant Finish 50-1  100-1

Giant Finish was the latest entry to the Kentucky Derby field. After defections from the Derby field, the owners of the Tony Dutrow trained colt made a last minute decision to enter. Ridden by Jose Espinoza, the colt comes off a third in the Spiral Stakes(G3) behind Black Onyx. That performance by Giant Finish was ok, but he has a very slim chance of making an impact on Saturday, as the other horses are just much better than he is.

8. Goldencents 5-1   10-1

Goldencents has the celebrity connections. He is trained by last year’s Kentucky Derby winning trainer Doug O’ Neil, owned by a group that includes National Championship winning basketball coach Rick Pitino, and ridden by the relatively inexperienced but popular jockey Kevin Krigger.  Goldencents comes into the Derby off an impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby (GI). Goldencents rated nicely and held off a challenge to win the 1 1/8 miles test.  Distance and ratability are the major questions with this horse. Although he has never run a bad race, prior to the Santa Anita Derby he was very headstrong in his races. I look for Goldencents to be close or on the lead, and while his jockey and trainer say distance will not be an issue, I disagree. I think distance will be an issue and he will be a part of a hot pace. I expect Goldencents to be bet heavily because of his connections. Goldencents fights hard in all of his races, but in this spot, I foresee him fading in the final furlong.

9. Overanalyze 15-1   15-1

Overanalyze, the second of the Todd Pletcher trainees comes into the race off a dominant performance in the Arkansas Derby (G1). In his second start off the layoff, Overanalyze under Rafael Bejarano, who will also be aboard in the Kentucky Derby, stalked the pace and pounced on his way to a 4 ½ length victory. Prior to that Overanalyze was a disappointing 5^th in the Gotham Stakes (G3) off the layoff.  Overanalyze’s worst race came at Churchill Downs as a two -year old and that concerns me. He has also shown the tendency to regress off a big effort or a win. I expect a big effort from Overanalyze on Saturday but there are too many question marks to put him in my top three.

10. Palace Malice 20-1   15-1

Palace Malice, also trained by Todd Pletcher comes into the Kentucky Derby off a strong second place effort in the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes (GI ). Palace Malice, who will be ridden by Derby winning jockey Mike Smith, was pushed hard to get into the Kentucky Derby. After two good efforts to begin his year, Palace Malice had a disastrous trip in the Louisiana Derby (G2), eliminating him from the Kentucky Derby field. The connections decided to wheel him back to run in the Bluegrass two weeks later. In his first start on synthetic, Palace Malice ran a really impressive race but got run down at the wire.  The major concern with Palace Malice is that he is running his third race in five weeks. Palace Malice is a solid horse with a very bright future but because of the extensive running he has done this year, I will pass on Palace Malice.

11. Lines of Battle 30-1   40-1

Lines of Battle, trained by the Irish conditioner Aidan O’ Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore, comes to the Kentucky Derby off of a win in the UAE Derby (G2) over the Tapeta surface at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. Lines of Battle has never run on a conventional dirt surface, and while he has some dirt pedigree, I believe he is up against it here. Lines of Battle has endured a heavy dose of travel over the last five weeks and that will surely knock him out a little. Lines of Battle’s tactical speed will also be mitigated because the American speed horses are faster. I look for Lines of Battle to outperform O’Brien’s 2012 Kentucky Derby starter Daddy Long Legs, but then again Daddy Long Legs finished last.

12. Itsmyluckyday 15-1  15-1

Itsmyluckyday, trained by Eddie Plesa and ridden by Elvis Trujillo comes into the Kentucky Derby off a decent second place effort in the Besilu Stables Florida Derby (GI).  In the Florida Derby, Itsmyluckyday was coming off a two month layoff and appeared to show the effects, tiring down the lane. Prior to the Florida Derby Itsmyluckyday was very impressive when defeating champion Shanghai Bobby in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and prior to that he was impressive in winning the Gulfstream Park Derby. The two main questions regarding Itsmyluckyday are the distance and whether or not he can carry his form from Gulfstream to Churchill Downs. He has run well at every track he has been to with the exception of the bullring at Delta Downs, so I do not expect the track to be an issue. I believe Itsmyluckyday will improve off the layoff and he should also get a very good trip sitting behind the main pace in the race. I love Itsmyluckday here, and fully expect him to hit the board.

13. Falling Sky 50-1    75-1

The Falling Sky team is throwing up a Hail Mary by running him in the Kentucky Derby. Falling Sky, trained by John Terranova and ridden by Luis Saez, has speed and will be part of the early pace but that’s about it. While he had a win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, that race turned out to be weak in quality. Following the win in the Davis, Falling Sky was part of the pace in both the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and the Arkansas Derby (G1) and while he tried hard, he  faded in both to be third and fourth respectively.  I expect Falling Sky to be near the lead or on it and fade as they turn for home.

14. Verrazano 4-1      5-2

Verrazano is the fourth horse in the Kentucky Derby trained by Todd Pletcher.  Verrazano, who will ridden by John Velasquez for the fifth consecutive time, comes into the Kentucky Derby a perfect 4 for 4.  Verrazano made his debut in January and immediately burst onto the Derby trail with an impressive victory. After winning his second race by a scintillating 16 ¼ lengths in a Gulfstream Park allowance race, Verrazano impressively took the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) defeating Java’s War and Falling Sky. In his final prep for the Derby, Verrazano took care of business as the heavy favorite defeating Normandy Invasion and Vyjack. While it was not a blowout win, Verrazano was relatively questioned and answered each question turning back Vyjack and holding off Normandy Invasion. I believe Verrazano is the only horse in the Kentucky Derby with absolute superstar potential and I am willing to forgive his lack of experience because of his talent.  Picking the second choice in the Kentucky Derby is usually not a smart move, but I love this horse and I think he is poised to get a comfortable trip right behind the pacesetters. Verrazano is certainly in my top three.

15. Charming Kitten 20-1   30-1

Charming Kitten is the fifth and final horse trained Todd Pletcher, and is by far the longest shot of his five. Charming Kitten is owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, who following their record-breaking performance at Keeneland are red hot, and will be ridden by Edgar Prado who is riding really well. Despite his impressive connections, Charming Kitten is a long shot for a reason.  In seven career starts he has never been on conventional dirt. Being by Kitten’s Joy, he is bred for the turf and polytrack and he has excelled on both surfaces, but I do not expect him to handle the dirt well enough to win the Kentucky Derby.  While I expect him not to embarrass his connections even if he handles the dirt or the slop, I do not think he is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby.

16. Orb  7-2  4-1

Orb, trained by legendary Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGauhey and ridden by Joel Rosario is the morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Orb comes into the Derby having won four in a row, including the Besilu Stables Florida Derby (GI) over Itsmyluckyday. Prior to that win Orb defeated the highly regarded colt Violence in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). Although Orb is the morning line favorite, and deservingly so, I am not putting Orb in my top three in the Derby for a few reasons. The Florida Derby in which Orb won was two whole seconds slower than the Gulfstream Park Oaks, run at the same distance earlier in the day. While the performance by Dreaming of Julia in that race was sublime, 2 seconds is a significant difference. The second big reason is I question the competition Orb was facing at Gulfstream Park. I believe the Fountain of Youth fell into his lap after a torrid pace, and although his Florida Derby was impressive, he beat Itsmyluckyday off the layoff. While Orb very well may prove me wrong, I am going to take a stand against him on Saturday.

17. Will Take Charge 20-1     20-1

Will Take Charge, trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by Jon Court, comes into the Kentucky Derby off a win the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park. Seven weeks ago, Will Take Charge ran down stable mate Oxbow in the final strides to register the victory.  Will Take Charge has been given time off by Lukas following the Rebel to recover and come into the Kentucky Derby fresh. I like this move a lot. Will Take Charge is a big horse with a big stride and should relish the added distance. While I do not think he is talented enough to win the Kentucky Derby, I think he is a contender at a big price.

18. Frac Daddy    50-1      65-1

Frac Daddy, trained by Ken McPeek and ridden by Victor Lebron comes into the Kentucky Derby off a decent second place effort in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Frac Daddy’s connections similar to Palace Malice were determined to get him into the Derby, and after two starts that could be described as debacles, McPeek took one last shot with Frac Daddy in the Arkansas Derby. In the Arkansas Derby,Frac Daddy received a better trip under Lebron to record a solid second place finish, although he was beaten handily.  Frac Daddy showed he liked Churchill Downs when running second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) as a two year old, but that race turned out to be rather weak. Although he earned his way into the Kentucky Derby, Frac Daddy will be overmatched Saturday.

19. Java’s War    15-1      20-1

Java’s War, also trained by Ken McPeek, comes into the Kentucky Derby off an impressive late running victory in the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes (GI) at Keeneland Racecourse over the synthetic surface. Java’s War, who will be ridden by Julien Leparoux, began his career on turf and synthetics surfaces. He is 3-5 on turf and synthetic surfaces only finishing out of the money in his career debut. On dirt, Java’s War is 0-2, but his only in the money performance was a solid second to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Java’s War showed he can handle the dirt in Tampa and showed his talent at Keeneland, but I still believe he is not good enough on dirt to win the Kentucky Derby. In the Tampa Bay Derby he passed a lot of average horses late. His worst race in his career was at Churchill Downs on the dirt.  While he will be running late in some capacity there are too many questions marks regarding Java’s War for me.

20. Vyjack     15-1      12-1

Vyjack, trained by Rudy Rodriguez and ridden by Garret Gomez, was unlucky to draw the 20 post position. Vyjack will have to go very wide in order to win the Kentucky Derby. Vyjack is 4-5 lifetime with his only loss coming to Verrazano in the Wood Memorial. Prior to the loss Vyjack won four in a row including the Jerome Stakes (G2) all at Aqueduct. Vyjack is an interesting horse because he seems very adaptable in terms of running style, and he has also run well every time. Distance is a major question for Vyjack, being out of Into Mischief.  Another concern with Vyjack is talent, as he had every chance to get by Verrazano last time out, and then got run down by Normandy Invasion late. While I believe Vyjack will run his race, and Gomez will suit him well, I don’t think he is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby.

    Selections

     1.   Verrazano

     2. Itsmyluckyday

     3. Normandy Invasion

Longshot- Will Take Charge.