The 142nd Running of the Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs
Post Time 6:34 PM ET
TV: NBC 4:00-7:30 PM ET
May 7th, 2016
This year’s Kentucky Derby features Nyquist’s
quest to become the first undefeated horse to win the Kentucky Derby since Big Brown in 2008.
The beauty of this year’s run for the roses is
the vast impact it will have throughout the horse racing industry from the
breeding shed to the racetrack. While Nyquist is the main story, his sire Uncle
Mo is as well. This year is Uncle Mo’s first crop of three year olds and from that crop three of them will be in this year’s race: Nyquist, Mo Tom, and
Outwork. Uncle Mo himself scratched the day prior to his attempt at the
Kentucky Derby and it will be fascinating to see if his progeny will be able to avenge their sire's Kentucky Derby misfortune.
The leading sire in the United States today is
Tapit, and three colts in the race, Mohaymen, Creator and Lani, will represent
him.
This year's Kentucky Derby field is incredibly wide open behind the 3-1 favorite Nyquist, making it a very unpredictable and exciting renewal of the race.
Below is my horse-by-horse analysis for the 142ND Kentucky
Derby. My picks for the race are at the bottom. Enjoy the race!
*Indicates number of Kentucky Derby victories
#1 Trojan Nation Trainer: Patrick Gallagher Jockey: Aaron
Gryder Odds: 50-1
Trojan Nation comes into the Kentucky Derby,
still a maiden, meaning he has never won a race. Trojan Nation was able to
qualify for the Kentucky Derby when he finished second by only a nose to
Outwork in the GI Wood Memorial Stakes. Trojan Nation will be
another horse launching from far back in the Derby. It is difficult to read
whether Trojan Nation improved because of the slop or the pace collapse in
front of him but surely both helped. This horse will have to really step up his
game to compete in the Derby.
#2 Suddenbreakingnews Trainer:
Donnie Von Hemel Jockey: Luis Quinonez Odds: 20-1
Suddenbreakingnews spent his entire Derby prep
season by competing at Oaklawn Park, first winning the GIII Southwest in a
dramatic rush from last place. Following that performance he was a troubled
fifth in the GII Rebel Stakes, and finally he was a fast closing second in the GI
Arkansas Derby behind Creator. Suddenbreakingnews is another late running horse
in this year’s Kentucky Derby. He will be equipped with a shadow roll for the first time
in an attempt to enhance his focus. Contrary to horses like
Whitmore and Creator who make their big run on the turn and attempt to sustain
it through the stretch, in all of his races Suddenbreakingnews did not make his
late run until the stretch. If he is going to run a fast closing third or fourth
in the Kentucky Derby a late stretch run is feasible, but if he is going to win
the Derby, he needs to start his run earlier on to ensure he can get to the
wire first. Suddenbreakingnews is certainly a horse people are talking about
heading into Saturday. Coupled with his explosive burst and a good
workout leading up to the race, he has a legitimate chance to hit the board.
#3 Creator Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Odds: 10-1
Creator, a rapidly improving son of Tapit, comes
into the Kentucky Derby off a victory in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.
Prior to his victory Creator also finished a fast closing third in the Rebel
Stakes. There are plenty of things to like about Creator. In every start since
he has turned three, Creator has improved, a positive sign heading into the
Derby. Creator should relish the Derby distance. As the distance has lengthened
this horse has just gotten better. While he has not won at Churchill Downs, he
has been effective at the track with two-second place finishes. There are two
negatives with Creator, the first being his running style. Like so many other horses in this year's race Creator is a deep closer, a hinderance if there is a slow pace. Second, since he was moved to Oaklawn Park
he has really improved. Creator was 0/5 outside of Oaklawn and since moving to
Oaklawn he has two wins and an impressive third. It remains to be seen if
Creator can be as effective outside of Oaklawn Park. That being said, Creator has an
explosive and sustained turn of foot so he must be respected as a major player
in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
#4 Mo Tom Trainer: Thomas Amoss Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Odds: 20-1
Mo Tom comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a
disappointing fourth place finish in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. After
winning the GIII LeComte Stakes at the Fair Grounds in January, Mo Tom was
poised to become a star on the Derby trail. After two very tough trips in both
the GII Veterans Ford Risen Star Stakes and the Louisiana Derby, Mo Tom will be
a long shot on Saturday. Mo Tom is a tough read because of his two atrocious trips. It is impossible to say where he would have finished with
clean ones, but I am fairly certain he would not have defeated Gun Runner. Mo
Tom is another horse in the race that makes his run from the back of the pack,
which will not help his chances. If Mo Tom gets a clean trip, he is in with a
shot to hit the board but that is a big if.
#5 Gun Runner Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Florent Geroux Odds: 10-1
It has been twenty years since Grindstone won
the Kentucky Derby in 1996 using the Louisiana Derby as his final prep run for
the Run for the Roses. This year Gun Runner will attempt to follow in
Grindstone’s footsteps. Gun Runner comes into the Kentucky Derby with a very
solid record of four wins from five career starts. After spending his
two-year-old season racing in Kentucky, where he competed twice over the
Churchill Downs surface, Gun Runner spent the winter in New Orleans at the Fair
Grounds racetrack where he flourished. In two starts at the Fair Grounds Gun
Runner won twice, taking the GII Veterans Ford Risen Stakes on February 20th,
and the GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby on March 26th.
Gun Runner was very impressive in the Louisiana
Derby, sitting close to the pace, and then kicking away from the field in the
stretch for a decisive win. Gun Runner has a high cruising speed, a positive
weapon in a race like this year’s that lacks significant pace. There are
concerns with Gun Runner though: mainly being the competition he beat this
winter may be suspect. Since the Louisiana Derby has only produced
two Kentucky Derby winners in the past, the strength of the prep races Gun
Runner has competed in must be questioned. Although rain is not in
the forecast, on the off chance it does rain, Gun Runner’s lone defeat came in
the mud at Churchill Downs. I respect Gun Runner, and believe he has a major
chance on Saturday.
#6 My Man Sam Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Odds: 20-1
My Man Sam comes into the Kentucky Derby off of
a second place finish in his stakes debut in the GI Toyota Bluegrass Stakes at
Keeneland. My Man Sam breaking from the outside in the race dropped into last
in the field of fourteen before making a late run to finish second. My Man Sam
joins the list of deep closers in this year’s Kentucky Derby and will need to
step up his game to be competitive, but this is not impossible. The Derby will
only be the fifth start of My Man Sam’s career and so improvement could in the
cards. Even so, I just do not believe My Man will be quite good enough to hit
the board on Saturday.
#7 Oscar Nominated Trainer:
Mike Maker Jockey: Julien Leparoux Odds: 50-1
Oscar Nominated will be one of the longest shots
in the Derby and for good reason. Oscar Nominated comes into the Derby by way
of winning the GIII Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park
on their synthetic racetrack. Oscar Nominated was able to wear down a weak field
filled with turf horses to win at odds over 20-1. The Derby will be Oscar
Nominated’s first career start on dirt, and I do not foresee him being able to
handle it well. Oscar Nominated seems to be overmatched in this year’s Derby.
#8 Lani Trainer: Mikio Matsunaga
Jockey: Yutaka Take
Odds: 30-1
Lani comes into the Kentucky Derby as the
biggest “unknown.” Lani is a US bred son of Tapit who made the first five
starts of his career in Japan. In Japan Lani was able to win two of his five
starts and showed enough promise for his connections to take him to Dubai for
the GII UAE Derby. In the UAE Derby Lani was a bit erratic, refusing to enter
the starting gate, then stumbling when leaving the gate. In the beginning of
the race Lani showed little interest, dropping out to the back of the pack.
Entering the backstretch Lani made a big wide move all the way up into second
and eventually wore down the pacesetter to win. The UAE Derby was a very weak
field and the favorite in the race had a terrible trip, but it did take quite the performance by Lani to win. Lani’s training since
arriving in Kentucky has been a roller coaster and it seems he has quite a bit
of attitude. Lani has talent, but his mind and his global travel make him a
very big long shot in this year’s race.
#9 Destin Trainer: Todd
Pletcher* Jockey: Javier Castellano
Odds: 15-1
Destin comes into the Kentucky Derby having not
raced in eight weeks which is a long layoff for a Derby contender. Destin’s
last race came in the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby Stakes at Tampa Bay
Downs. In that race he sat off the pace and closed stoutly to run
down stable mate Outwork. Destin improved leaps and bounds this winter with two
impressive wins both at Tampa Bay. Destin’s connections felt he ran so well in
the Tampa Bay Derby they decided not to run him again before the Derby. While
Destin has been preparing for the Derby both Outwork and Brody’s Cause, two
horses he beat in the Tampa Bay Derby came back to win major GI preps. Destin
is a key player in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
#10 Whitmore Trainer: Ron
Moquett Jockey: Victor Espinoza *** Odds: 20-1
Whitmore comes into the Kentucky Derby off of
three straight in the money finishes in the Southwest Stakes (2nd)
Rebel Stakes (2nd) and the Arkansas Derby (3rd). In each
race coming into the turn Whitmore looked poised to win, making a sweeping
move, but each time he wasn’t able to close the deal in the stretch. I believe
Whitmore is just not quite good enough to be a major factor in this race. He is
a nice horse, and gets the services of Triple Crown winning jockey Victor
Espinoza, but I believe on Saturday this task will prove too difficult for
Whitmore and Espinoza.
#11 Exaggerator Trainer: Keith
Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux***
Odds: 8-1
Exaggerator comes into the Kentucky Derby off of
a dominating performance in the GI Santa Anita Derby on April 9th. The major
caveat regarding the Santa Anita Derby is that the race was run over a very
sloppy track. Exaggerator relished the adverse conditions while main rivals
Danzing Candy and Mor Spirit really were never able to grasp the track. Not
only did Exaggerator take to the track significantly better than the others,
the red-hot pace in front of him collapsed allowing for a perfect set up. If
for some reason the weather forecast was incorrect and the Derby was run over a
sloppy surface, Exaggerator would likely go off as the favorite. I
don’t believe Exaggerator will make a significant impact on this year’s
Kentucky Derby.
#12 Tom’s Ready Trainer: Dallas
Stewart Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Odds: 30-1
Tom’s Ready comes into the Kentucky Derby off of
a second place finish in the GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at the
Fairgrounds behind Gun Runner. Tom’s Ready only has one win from nine starts and
although he has finished second in two-graded stake race he seems a cut below
the best in here. I expect him to be mid-pack throughout the race but I do not
see him making a meaningful impact in the closing stages.
#13 Nyquist Trainer: Doug
O’Neil* Jockey: Mario Gutierrez* Odds: 3-1
Nyquist is going to be the favorite come post
time for the Derby, and deservedly so. In seven career starts Nyquist is
unbeaten. He has won grade one races in California, Kentucky, and Florida and
has won races between five and nine furlongs. Nyquist is versatile, he is able
to go the front in races, but also come from behind as he did when winning the
GI Breeders Cup Juvenile at Keeneland this past fall. In his two prep races for
the Derby he has been flawless. Trainer Doug O’Neil began Nyquist's 2016 campaign in
the seven-furlong GII San Vicente at Santa Anita. In this sprint race Nyquist
was able to take command early and fight off the closers including fellow Derby
starter Exaggerator. Chasing a $1,000,000 bonus, Nyquist was shipped
to Gulfstream Park for a showdown with Mohaymen in the GI Xpressbet.com Florida
Derby. In the nine furlong test Nyquist was dominant, going straight to the
lead and never looking back. Nyquist is tough, undefeated, and a deserving
favorite, but there are still knocks against him. I still question whether or
not he will be at his best going the Derby distance of ten furlongs. Second, I
have not been impressed with his preparation. Nyquit has jogged an awful lot
for a top Derby contender and his breezes at Keeneland did not impress me. If
Nyquist is able to win he will become the fourth straight post time favorite,
following Orb, California Chrome and American Pharoah, to capture the Run for the
Roses.
In a Kentucky Derby that is as wide open even an
unbeaten favorite is vulnerable, so while a Nyquist victory will not be
surprising, I am picking against him.
#14 Mohaymen Trainer: Kiaran
McLaughlin Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Odds: 10-1
Prior to the GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby,
Mohaymen was the Kentucky Derby favorite. Undefeated in five prior starts,
Mohaymen looked to be the total package, but in the Florida Derby, Mohaymen
struggled, never fully getting into the bridle early and fading late to be
fourth. One can take the Florida Derby as a true representation of form
regarding Mohaymen or a fluke. I believe Mohaymen is a nice horse but the
competition he faced throughout his entire career has been suspect. During
Mohaymen’s five race win streak only one horse won a graded stakes race after being defeated by Mohaymen, Flexibility, who is no longer on the Triple Crown trail. Also
only one other horse was able to run in the top three in a graded stakes race after losing
to Mohaymen and that horse, Fellowship, ran third in the Florida Derby. The
competition Mohaymen has defeated has not panned out in any way shape or form
and for that reason I am not picking him in this year's Kentucky Derby. I
still believe he is very talented and would not be shocked in any way if he proved
me wrong.
#15 Outwork Trainer: Todd
Pletcher* Jockey: John Velasquez* Odds: 15-1
Outwork comes in to the Kentucky Derby off of a
gutsy victory in the slop in the GI Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct. In only his fourth
career start, Outwork was involved in a hot early pace and then held off the
late closing Trojan Nation to win by a nose. Outwork has come a long way in a
short period of time. After beginning his career at Keeneland as a two year
old, this son of Uncle Mo came off of a long layoff to win an allowance race at
Tampa Bay Downs going six furlongs. In only his third career start, off of only
a sprint race, Outwork set the pace in the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby,
and ended up being caught late by his stablemate Destin. Outwork improved off
that effort to win the slowly run Wood Memorial. I love Outwork. He seems to be
an improving colt, with both heart and speed. Outwork will be close to the
pace, which should be an advantage in this year’s race. In his last work coming
up to the race he was breathtaking, showing his affinity for the Churchill
Downs surface. I expect Outwork to take another major step forward off of his
last race, and he is my pick to win this year’s Kentucky Derby.
#16 Shagaf Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Joel Rosario*
Odds: 20-1
Shagaf enters the Kentucky Derby off a fifth
place finish in the GI Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct. Prior to this
performance Shagaf won the GIII Gotham Stakes also at Aqueduct. There could be
two explanations for Shagaf’s performance in the Wood Memorial: he
didn’t handle the slop and the other is the small amount of traffic he ran into
turning for home. The second reason is far more concerning for me. Turning for
home Shagaf looked like he was going to win the Wood Memorial easily when he
encountered enough traffic to the point where he had to wait for a few strides,
and when a hole opened up he was empty fading back to fifth. Shagaf is a big
long striding horse, and in my opinion he cannot afford to be stopped in traffic, and then be able to kick into high gear again. In a field as big as the Kentucky Derby,
traffic at some point in the race is almost inevitable and being able to handle
it is key. I don’t believe Shagaf will be able to handle traffic trouble well
enough to win or be factor in the Kentucky Derby.
#17 Mor Spirit Trainer: Bob
Baffert**** Jockey: Gary Stevens*** Odds: 12-1
If he is good enough, Mor Spirit certainly has
the right connections to win the Kentucky Derby. His trainer Bob Baffert has
won the Kentucky Derby four times, including last year with Triple Crown
winning American Pharoah. His jockey Gary Stevens has won the Derby
3 times. In seven career starts Mor Spirit has never finished worse than
second. He is a two time graded stakes winner and comes into the race off a
distant second to Exaggerator in the GI Santa Anita Derby. Throughout his
career Mor Spirit has been better over a fast dirt track which he should get on
Saturday. I don’t love that he comes in off two straight defeats, and that he
has struggled to win against top-level competition. I expect Stevens
to place Mor Spirit much closer to the pace and I think he is a player to hit
the board on his best day.
#18 Majesto Trainer: Gustavo
Delgado Jockey: Emisael Jaramillo Odds: 30-1
Majesto comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a
good second place finish in the GI Xpressbet.com Florida Derby behind Nyquist.
Majesto spent all winter in Florida and seems like an improving horse that
should love the added distance. My worry regarding Majesto is that he probably
is not good enough to strike a serious blow Saturday. Majesto in many ways
finished second by “default” in the Florida Derby as Nyquist blew away the
field and Mohaymen failed to fire. Majesto grinded out a second place finish.
In the Kentucky Derby the water gets much deeper for Majesto.
#19 Brody’s Cause Trainer: Dale
Romans Jockey: Luis Saez Odds: 12-1
Brody’s Cause loves Keeneland, but unfortunately
the Kentucky Derby is not run at Keeneland. In his two starts at Keeneland he
has won two Grade 1 races including his last start, the GI Toyota Bluegrass
Stakes. Brody’s Cause is another closer in a Derby field that is full of them.
In his last race as with many of the Derby preps, the race-favored closers. The
top three in the Bluegrass came from tenth, eleventh and fourteenth place as
the speed collapsed in front of them. The problem with the Bluegrass Stakes was
the field really lacked quality and Brody’s Cause was able to take advantage.
In my estimation it is was the worst Derby prep in terms of quality and for
that reason I don’t believe Brody’s Cause will be good enough to win this
year’s Kentucky Derby.
#20 Danzing Candy Trainer:
Clifford Sise Jr. Jockey: Mike Smith* Odds: 15-1
Danzing Candy will be on the lead early in the
Kentucky Derby. In most years this is not necessarily the best place to be
since the Derby typically is filled with speed, but this year is different.
With what seems to be a Derby generally void of speed, Danzing Candy may
manufacture a fairly good trip. In his last start in the GI Santa Anita Derby,
he went to the lead and opened up a large lead setting aggressive fractions in
the slop before fading badly to finish fourth behind Exaggerator. Prior to his
effort in the Santa Anita Derby, Danzing Candy led all the way to win the GII
San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita. Danzing Candy may have just despised the slop
last out, and a dry track on Saturday makes him dangerous. Breaking from the outside post means jockey Mike Smith will have to use Danzing Candy to clear the field and get over to the rail. In doing so Smith runs the risk of invigorating Danzing Candy to the point where he runs off, much like he did in his last race. I also believe there are
distance concerns with Danzing Candy but if he is able to dictate the pace and
set relatively slow fractions he is one to watch.
Projected Pace
Early Speed
#13 Nyquist
#15 Outwork
#20 Danzing Candy
Stalkers
#5 Gun Runner
#9 Destin
#14 Mohaymen
#17 Mor Spirit
Mid Pack
#6 My Man Sam
#7 Oscar Nominated
#8 Lani
#12 Tom’s Ready
#16 Shagaf
#18 Majesto
Closers
#1 Trojan Nation
#2 Suddenbreakingnews
#3 Creator
#4 Mo Tom
#11 Exaggerator
#10 Whitmore
#19 Brody’s Cause
Picks for the 142nd Kentucky
Derby
1. #15 Outwork 15-1
2. #5 Gun Runner 10-1
3. #3 Creator 10-1
4. #2 Suddenbreakingnews 20-1
Longshot- #9 Destin 15-1
