The 147th Belmont Stakes is all about American Pharoah's quest to
be the first Triple Crown winner since 1978. American Pharoah backed up his
Kentucky Derby victory with a dominating win in the Preakness Stakes. On
Saturday American Pharoah will look to make history, but he is facing a tough
field. In the Belmont Stakes, American Pharoah's main challenges will come from
Frosted and Materiality. Frosted was a very solid fourth in the Kentucky Derby,
and is fresh, having skipped the Preakness. Materiality ran sixth in the
Kentucky Derby, but had a terrible trip and closed with a flourish in what
ended up being an impressive sixth place finish. My Kentucky Derby selection
Mubtaahij comes into the race with a decent 8th place finish and has been working
steadily coming into the race.
Pace Scenario
In the Belmont, I expect American Pharoah to be on the lead. He is
the most talented horse in the race and has natural speed. If he breaks well he
should be on the lead. Materiality also should be close to the lead, which is
his more natural position. The connections of Mubtaahij want him to be closer
and I expect him to be closer, sitting right behind the two leaders. Frosted
should be closer than he was in the Derby and should be sitting fourth. Madefromlucky
who comes off of a victory in the local prep for the Belmont Stakes, the GII
Peter Pan Stakes, should be sitting in the fifth. Three long shot closers Keen
Ice, Frammento, and Tale of Verve will be far back early, unless one of their
riders gets unexpectedly aggressive.
Contenders
American Pharoah
Frosted
Materiality
Mubtaahij
Long Shots with a chance
Madefromlucky
Keen Ice
Longshots with no chance
Frammento
Tale of Verve
1. #6 Frosted
2. #1 Mubtaahij
3. #5 American Pharoah
While I will be rooting for American Pharoah to complete the
Triple Crown sweep, I believe the combination of the added distance and a very
talented Frosted waiting in the wings will be too much to overcome. American
Pharoah is a superstar, but Materiality will be able to track him and pressure
him the entire way around the racetrack, and this will cost him the race.
Waiting the entire way around the track for him will be Frosted and Mubtaahij,
and these will be the two to decide the last furlong of the mile and one half
marathon race. Good luck!
