The Kentucky Oaks is the feature on the Friday card at Churchill downs. The undercard is headlined by a fantastic race in the American Turf and the Alysheba for older males, as wel last the La Troienne featuring Plum Pretty. My selections for the stakes race on Kentucky Oaks day are below!!
Race 6 The La Troienne (Grade II) $300,000
1. Plum Pretty
2. Absinthe Minded
3. Juanita
In the La Troienne the first graded stakes races on the friday card will have the shortest priced favorite in Plum Pretty. Plum Pretty won her first race of the year in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn and the going does not get much tougher today. She will be an overwhelming and deservingly so. She is 1 for 1 over the Churchill surface with that win coming in the Kentucky Oaks. I will be shocked if she losesm and I am making Plum Pretty my top selection. Absinthe Minded can always jump up and give a big effort and I will look for a good effort on Friday but not good enough to beat Plum Pretty.
Race 7 The Eight Belles (Grade III) $100,000
1. Small Kitchen
2. Contested
3. Good Deed
The Eight Belles is an interesting race becasue Small Kitchen is cutting back to one turn following a lackluster effort around two turns. I think she is the most talented runner in the field and I look for her to rebound. Bob Baffert could not be hotter and I think Contested will be right there at the wire.
Race 8 The Edgewood $150,000
1. Disposablepleasure (12-1) ML
2. Stephanie's Kitten
3. More than Love
The Edgewood for three year old fillies on the turf features Stephanie's Kitten who was a dissapointing third last time out in the Ashland at Keeneland. This race for her serves as a prep for the Coronation at Royal Ascot in June. She is the class of the race but I believe the riders will target her in the race based on her Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf win last year. Disposablepleasure tries turf on friday and I will believe she will take to the grass and defeat Stephanie's Kitten who I think could run into traffic.
Race 9 The Alysheba Stakes (Grade II) $300,000
1. Mucho Macho Man
2. Boxeur De Reus (30-1)
3. Succesful Dan
The Alysheba is a very compettive race and features Mucho Macho Man who is one of the top older males in training this year and Succesful Dan who returend at Keeneland with an impressive win. I think it will take Succesful Dan one more start to return to this level of compettion and Mucho Macho Man is the horse to beat. Mucho Macho Man ran a very solid third last year in the Kentucky Derby showing his affinity for the Churchill surface. He has run two impressive races this year and I think he will continue his roll in the Alysheba. Boxeur de Reus ran a decent race last time out in the Santa Anita Handicap and I think he could hit the board at a big price for O'Neil and Guttierez a preview of the Derby. I think Succesful Dan will run his race but this is a quick turnaround and might need this race.
Race 10 The American Turf (Grade II) $200,000
1. Howe Great
2. Gung Ho
3. Star Channel
The American Turf is for three year old males on the turf and for me the race starts with Howe Great. Even though he is in the 14 post position he has never lost on grass and until he does I am not going to pick against him. The race is filled with speed which does not set up for Silver Max who won the Transylvania last time out gate to wire. I like Gung Ho to come running late but I think Howe Great will have the jump turning for home.
Race 11 The Kentucky Oaks (Grade 1) $1,000,000
1. Hard Not To Like (20-1)
2. Grace Hall
3. On Fire Baby
This year I beleive the Kentucky Oaks is a wide open race and for that reason I like the three year old filly named Hard Not To Like. I was very encouraged by her last race which was her first race off a decent layoff. I am willing to take the risk that she will take to the dirt because if she does she will be right there at the wire. I love her at what should be a price well over 15-1. Grace Hall is as consistent as they come, she has has never run a bad race and I look for that to continue on Friday, but I do not know if she will get a great trip. I think she is too good to not hit the board but I will pick against her. On Fire Baby has done nothing wrong on conventional dirt but I think the compettion might catch up to her a bit on Friday, she will be close but I think she will get caught late. The Oaks is a strong deep field and really any of them could win it, but I love the canadian filly to make a splash in the Oaks its Hard Not to Like her.
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