The races I will cover this weekend are the two stakes races at Tampa Bay Downs, the races in California, and the Aqueduct.
The Endeavor and The Sam F. Davis
The Endeavor Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs is a very intriguing race. The obvious horse to beat is Zagora. Zagora took to the track last year, and is the class of the field; but the only question mark is that her last race was not great, and it is her first start of a lengthy layoff. Keertana is also coming into the race off a long layoff, but is probably the second classiest filly in the field. She may be at her best at a longer distance. My selection is Exclusive Love. She was beaten only two lengths in the Marshua's River last time out, and she is very consistent and will be right there at the wire. Master Shade is the darkhorse in the race. She has been tough in her last two and is an improving filly. Picks:
1. Exclusive Love
2. Zagora
3. Master Shade
The Sam F. Davis the co-feature at Tampa and is a deep race full of Tampa Bay and Kentucky Derby prospects. Two Horses that will take most of the respect are Reveron and Prospective; the two outside horses. I believe both of these are throw outs. Reveron won the Gulfstream Park Derby a race that produced Casual Trick, who did nothing last time out. I believe there is a still a major question mark with Prospective, as his only two turn start on dirt was a dud in the Juvenile. He does have a win on the Tampa Bay surface which is key, but I am still throwing him out. State of Play is extremely talented and his work has been good, but the dirt is a question. He is a graded stakes winner, but bumps in the road prior to the Breeders Cup may have contributed to poor effort. I still have questions whether or not he truly wants two turns, he had it all his own way in the With Anticipation but he is still my selection here. Ecabroni is obviously talented but needs to prove himself. Here are my selections:
1. State Of Play
2. Burning Time
3. Ecabroni
Santa Anita has a wonderful card on Saturday filled with three great Grade Twos.
The Arcadia, the third race on the card, is a two horse race on paper between Mr. Commons and Pathfork. Both are extremely talented but I believe Pathfork will need one American race under his belt before he wins, but watch out next time. M One Rifle should provide enough pace for Mr. Commons to win this one impressively. He is the best turf male in the country in my opinion hands down. Selections:
1. Mr. Commons
2. Massone
3. Pathfork
The Robert Lewis the sixth race on the card and is a Santa Anita Derby prep which features two very talented Baffert Runners, Liason and Sky Kingdom. Liason will be the favorite based on his solid victory in the Cashcall Futurity. I like Liason, but I will look elsewhere here. To me the most intriguing runner is Empire Way. His race schedule at Hollywood Park was puzzling to me, and I think two turns on the dirt will benefit him. I think Sky Kingdom is the horse to beat. His last win was good, although he was not challenged he relished the dirt, and will show how much talent he has in this race. Selections:
1. Sky Kingdom
2. Empire Way
3. Liason
The Strub Stakes is the Eighth race on the card and has the potential to be a one sided Tapizar affair, but I will pick against him. I do think it is very hard to pick against Tapizar because his San Fernando was very impressive and he prove to better than this field. I think he will see a lot of pace pressure from Ultimate Eagle, who will not be a factor because he will not like the dirt. I think Balladry has the best chance to beat him. He has gotten better and may be the only horse that can run Tapizar down. Prayer for Relief is overrated. He beat average horses in his different derby wins and when he has stepped up in class there has been little response. Selections:
1. Balladry
2. Tapizar
3. Jaycito
The Withers at Aqueduct features Alpha, an impressive winner of the Count Fleet stakes. I think he is head and shoulders better than this field. He should be able to sit right off the pace and take control at the head of the stretch and get a pretty easy win. Selections:
1. Alpha
2. Swag Daddy
3. How Do I Win
That is my analysis for this weekend. I hope you enjoyed it, I will update my results after the races.
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