The 141st Kentucky Derby is slated to be the
deepest and most contentious running of the 1 ¼ miles race in years. The two favorites will be the superstar
American Pharaoh and the undefeated Dortmund, both horses trained by Bob Baffert. Trainer Todd Pletcher starts four horses in this year’s Kentucky
Derby led by leading contenders Carpe Diem and Materiality. He also has
outsiders Itsaknockout and Stanford. The race also draws international intrigue
by way of the Irish bred Mubtaahij. Trained by the South African Mike De Kock
and ridden by Belgium Jockey Christophe Soumillion, Mubtaahij comes off a
dominating win in Dubai and has a major chance to contend. Other top contenders include the talented
colts coming off major prep race wins such as
International Star, Frosted, and Firing Line. All of this makes this year’s Run
for the Roses very intriguing as it runs deep with storylines as well as
legitimate talent. Read below for my horse-by-horse analysis. At the very
bottom are my top three selections along with my projected pace scenario and
threatening long shots. Good luck and
enjoy the 141ST Kentucky Derby!
1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (50-1)
Ocho Ocho Ocho, trained by Jim
Cassidy and ridden by Elvis Trujillo is coming off of a third place finish
behind Carpe Diem and Danzig Moon in the GI Toyota Bluegrass at Keeneland. In
the Bluegrass Ocho Ocho Ocho, set the pace, pressed every step of the way by
Carpe Diem before fading to third. From the rail postposition Ocho Ocho Ocho is
expected to go straight to the lead. While Ocho Ocho Ocho is a hard trying
colt, I believe this race is too tough for him, and while he may finish mid
pack, I do not expect anything better than that.
2. Carpe Diem (8-1)
Carpe Diem, trained by Todd
Pletcher and ridden by Hall of Famer John Velasquez comes into the Kentucky off
an impressive victory as the odds on favorite in the GI Toyota Bluegrass Stakes
at Keeneland. Prior to that win, Carpe
Diem captured the GII Tampa Bay Derby, and was second in the Breeders Cup
Juvenile at Santa Anita. Carpe Diem is likely to go off third betting choice
off of his impressive record, having never finished worse than second in five
career starts. This colt is coming into the race well and has a very adaptable
running style. From the second postposition Carpe Diem will have to break well
and get a good position behind the main group of leaders. Throughout his career
though, Carpe Diem has yet to run a very fast race, and in this year’s Kentucky
Derby, a very fast race is going to be required. I think Carpe Diem is a very
talented horse and fully expect him to run in the top 5 but I will not have him
in my top 3.
3. Materiality (12-1)
Materiality, trained by Todd
Pletcher and ridden by Javier Castellano comes into the Kentucky Derby off a
win in the GI Florida Derby where in only his third career start he defeated
the much more seasoned Upstart. Materiality, in only three starts has made a
rapid ascension from having never started to one of the main contenders in the
Run for the Roses. History is against
Materiality as he is attempting to become the first horse to win the Kentucky
Derby having never made a start at 2 since Apollo captured the race in 1882. Materiality
did not draw particularly well. From the third postposition Materiality will
have to be hustled out of the gate to gain position. I believe Materiality is
talented but his lack of season combined with being another one of the main
speed horses in the race will be too much to overcome for this colt with a
bright future.
4. Tencendur (30-1)
Tencendur, is trained by George
Weaver and ridden by Manuel Franco. This colts comes off of a second place
finish to Frosted in the GI Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. In the Wood, the New
York bred colt opened up a three-length lead until Frosted inhaled him in the
final sixteenth under mild urging. Tencendur is going to be a large long shot
in this year’s Kentucky Derby and is another horse that will likely be close to
the pace, and it would seem the task on Saturday is too tall for Tencendur.
5. Danzig Moon (30-1)
Danzig
Moon, trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Julien Leparoux comes into the
Kentucky Derby off of a very good second to Carpe Diem in the GI Toyota
Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. In the Bluegrass, Danzig Moon was wide into the
first turn and ended up making a sustained rally around the clubhouse turn and
through the stretch to power past Ocho Ocho Ocho and pull within a few lengths
of Carpe Diem. Danzig Moon looks like a colt that should relish the added
distance of the Kentucky Derby, and it seems Danzig Moon has really become the
buzz horse at Churchill Downs this week. Reports from Louisville indicate that his
gallops and workouts have been very strong. Danzig Moon could end up passing
tired horses in the stretch and he has an outside chance to hit the board.
6. Mubtaahij (20-1)
Mubtaahij, trained by Mike De Kock,
and ridden by Christophe Soumillion comes into the Derby off of a spectacular
win in the GII UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai. Mubtaahij began his career in
England before being taken to Dubai for the winter where he began to thrive.
Since being moved to the dirt by De Kock, this colt has won four of his five
starts and seems to be improving with every dirt start. Mubtaahij has already
competed in one Triple Crown having danced every dance in the UAE Triple Crown,
winning two of the three legs. In the UAE Derby, the final leg, Mubtaahij
tracked the leaders, enduring plenty of kick back before exploding outside of
rivals to register a dominating victory. The dirt surface at Meydan is
supposedly very similar to that of Churchill Downs, which is positive since
Mubtaahij was so successful over that surface. I expect Mubtaahij to be mid
pack early, before unleashing his trademark kick in the end. The long traveling
distance and improved competition are definite question marks regarding this
colt, but given his impressive record of racing, he should have a sufficient
base of conditioning. Mubtaahij will not only be carrying the hopes of South
Africa, and Dubai, but mine as well. He is my top selection to win the 141st
running of the Kentucky Derby.
7. El Kabeir (30-1)
SCRATCHED
8. Dortmund (3-1)
Dortmund, trained by Bob Baffert
and ridden by Martin Garcia is undefeated in six career starts. The massive
colt has defeated every rival that has run against him, but in his last two
starts, the GI Santa Anita Derby and the GII San Felipe Stakes, Dortmund has
demolished those that have tried. Dortmund will be the second choice in the
betting behind his stable mate American Pharaoh, and deservingly so; but
Dortmund will not be among my selections. Due to Dortmund’s incredible size,
working out a trip capable of winning the Kentucky Derby seems doubtful. In
both of his most recent wins Dortmund was given an easy lead. In the Derby,
Dortmund will not be on the lead. Dortmund drew just fine and should be
relatively close to the pace from his postposition if he breaks well. I still
envision Dortmund briefly behind horses and getting dirt in his face, something
he has never really done, and for that reason I am leaving Dortmund off of my
top selections.
9. Bolo (30-1)
Bolo, trained by Carla Gaines and
ridden by Rafael Bejarano comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a third place
finish to Dortmund in the GI Santa Anita Derby. Bolo began his career on grass
and was very impressive. Since being switched to dirt by Gaines, Bolo has
performed well, finishing third in both the GII San Felipe and as mentioned
above the Santa Anita Derby. Bolo had excuses as well in both races; coming off
a layoff in the San Felipe he may not have fired his best effort, and he was
very wide throughout the entirety of the Santa Anita Derby. The problem with
Bolo is that his better surface is grass. Bolo will have to be well more than
capable on dirt to contend in this year’s Kentucky Derby, and I don’t see that
happening.
10. Firing Line (12-1)
Firing Line, trained by Simon
Callaghan and ridden by Hall of Famer and multiple Kentucky Derby winning
jockey Gary Stevens comes into the Derby off of a dominating performance in the GIII
Sunland Derby at Sunland Derby. In the Sunland Derby, Firing Line was an
extremely heavy favorite and ran like that, bolting on to an impressive
victory. He came in having knocked heads twice, and losing both times narrowly
to the undefeated Dortmund. In the GII Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Firing Line
actually passed Dortmund in the stretch before Dortmund re-rallied to beat him.
Firing Line drew great in the #10 post position as jockey Gary Stevens will be
able to judge the pace around him on both sides. I don’t like Firing Line for
two reasons, the first being the distance. He is not is bred to run a mile and
quarter, and in a field this competitive that will hurt his chances. Secondly,
Firing Line is another horse in this race with a lot of early pace, and could
be caught in an early pace duel. These combined factors make Firing Line a toss
for me on Saturday.
11. Stanford (30-1)
SCRATCHED
12. International Star (20-1)
SCRATCHED
13. Itsaknockout (30-1)
Itsaknockout, trained by Todd
Pletcher and ridden by Luis Saez comes into the Kentucky Derby off a dull
fourth place finish in the GI Florida Derby.
Prior to that effort, Itsaknockout finished second behind Upstart but
was placed first because Upstart interfered with him in the stretch. Itsaknockout is lightly raced and will be a
large long shot, but he clearly disliked the track Florida Derby day, and there
should be improvement in this colt, but Saturday is not the day. While the Derby should set up from him pace
wise, I don’t believe he is talented enough to pose a serious threat, and out
of the Pletcher quartet he is my third choice.
14. Keen Ice (50-1)
Keen Ice, trained by Dale Romans
and ridden by Kent Desormeaux comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a fourth
place finish in the GII Louisiana Derby. I believe the Louisiana Derby was the
weakest of the major prep races. Keen Ice was not able to hit the board in that
race, so I see very little chance that he will be able to make any sort of
impact on the Kentucky Derby field. He is a deep closer in a race filled with
speed, but there are closers such as Far Right who are more talented. I do not
believe Keen Ice will be in contention on Saturday.
15. Frosted (15-1)
Frosted, trained by Kiaran
McLaughlin and ridden by Joel Rosario comes in the Kentucky Derby off of an
impressive victory at Aqueduct in the GI Wood Memorial. Prior to that, Frosted
was a disappointing fourth in the GII Fountain of Youth, and second in GIII
Holy Bull Stakes. Frosted, expected to be one of the top three year olds was
slightly underwhelming in his first two starts of 2015, especially in the
Fountain of Youth. Frosted turned for home with a lead when he did not finish
as expected, stopping quickly and ran fourth. Following this effort trainer
McLaughlin made changes including a slight throat surgery among other things
coming into the Wood Memorial. In the Wood Memorial Frosted was kept out of
trouble and under a confident ride, blew by long shot Tencendur. Frosted was the best horse that day and was
never thoroughly asked to run by Rosario. Frosted is extremely talented and if
he runs his race will absolutely be right there at the wire. My only worry with
Frosted is his mental toughness, and whether the 20-horse field will be
intimidating, Frosted drew a great post, as he should be able to settle into a
great rhythm.
16. War Story (50-1)
War Story, trained by Tom Amoss and
ridden by Joe Talamo comes into the Kentucky Derby off of a disappointing third
place effort in the GII Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds. His performance in
Louisiana was against a much more inferior group of horses than he will face
Saturday. If War Story could not make a legitimate impact in that race, he has
very little shot of making one in the Run for the Roses. On top of this,
multiple reports out of Churchill Downs indicate he is not training well coming
into the race. I want no part of War Story on Saturday.
17. Mr. Z (50-1)
Mr. Z, trained by D. Wayne Lukas
and ridden by Ramon Vasquez. Mr. Z enters the Kentucky Derby off of a third
place finish to American Pharaoh and Far Right in the GI Arkansas Derby. Mr. Z
is the most heavily raced horse in the field having raced 12 times, but he has
only finished first one time, in fact he has lost 11 straight races. In all
likelihood, Mr. Z will be one of the longest shots on the board. Mr. Z always
tries hard but he is unpredictable and under talented in terms of this year’s
Kentucky Derby. He is another one of
those long shots that will be contesting the early pace making it even faster.
Hopefully Mr. Z doesn’t take a sharp right like he did in the Smarty Jones, but
even if he doesn’t, it is unlikely his trip around Churchill Downs on Saturday
is successful. All reports out of Churchill Downs indicate Mr. Z is not
training well, and I believe that is an indicator of how he will run.
18. American Pharaoh (5-2)
American Pharaoh, trained by Bob
Baffert, and ridden by two-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Victor Espinoza,
is a superstar. After being defeated in his career debut, American Pharaoh has
been flawless. This colt has won four consecutive graded stakes races since
that defeat, all with devastating ease. After being injured slightly towards
the end of 2014, which forced him to miss a start in the Breeders Cup Juvenile,
American Pharaoh returned in 2015 to dominate both of his starts at Oaklawn
Park, the GII Rebel Stakes, and the Grade I Arkansas Derby. The competition he faced in these races was
not stellar, but, the ease and power in which he dominated them was impressive.
American Pharaoh is the most talented and exciting horse in the race. From the
#18 post American Pharaoh will stay clear of the traffic to his inside, but the
possibility is there that he could go very wide into the first turn. Overall
though, this is a good draw as he should be in the clear. In a race with a ton
of early speed, American Pharaoh could get caught in an early pace battle,
which could potentially soften him up in the closing strides of the race. If
American Pharaoh is able to win the Derby with the fast at odds as short as 2-1
I will tip my hat to him, but until then I am picking against him to win.
19. Upstart (15-1)
Upstart, trained by Rick Violette
and ridden by Jose Ortiz comes into the Derby off of a second place finish to
Materiality in the GI Florida Derby at Gulfstream. Upstart, who has never
finished worse than third in his career, crossed the wire first in two of his
three prep races for the Kentucky Derby. In the GII Fountain of Youth at
Gulfstream Park, Upstart defeated Itsaknockout but was disqualified for
interference and placed second. Upstart
was extremely impressive when defeating Frosted in winning the GII Holy Bull
Stakes, but was not as visually impressive in either of his next two races. The
Gulfstream Park racetrack surface was allegedly very deep both days and Upstart
did not seem to handle it as well. I will not have Upstart in my selections. Although he always runs his race, I think he
may be a slight cut below in terms of talent. He also may have peaked a little
early when he dominated the Holy Bull. Upstart always tries hard and I expect
him to in the Derby, but I don’t think he will have a major impact. The #19
postposition will not help Upstart as he will have to fight to get good
position in mid-pack.
20. Far Right (30-1)
Far Right, trained by Ron Moquett and
ridden by hall of famer Mike Smith comes off of a distant second place finish
behind American Pharaoh in the GI Arkansas Derby. Prior to that performance,
Far Right captured both the Smarty Jones Stakes and the GIII Southwest
Stakes. In a race filled with pace a
deep closer like Far Right becomes intriguing. Although he may not be the most
talented horse in the race, Far Right will be trying hard late and could pass
tired horses in the stretch. Far Right reminds me of Commanding Curve or Golden
Soul, as both horses were long shots and rallied late to finish second in the
Kentucky Derby in the last two years respectively. While this year’s field is
much deeper than previous years, the abundance of speed could allow for Far
Right to come charging down the stretch under the Twin spires. Far Right is not
in my top three, but he should be highly respected in trifectas and
superfectas. From postposition #20 Far
Right should not be affected as he will break and drop back.
Kentucky Derby
Selections
1. Mubtaahij
(20- 1)
2. Frosted
(15-1)
3. American
Pharaoh (5/2)
Kentucky Derby Pace Scenario
Speed
Ocho Ocho Ocho (1) Materiality (3) Tencendur (4) Dortmund (8)
Firing Line (10) Mr. Z (17) American Pharaoh (18)
Mid Pack
Carpe Diem (2) Mubtaahij (6) Bolo (12) Frosted (15) Upstart (19)
Deep Closers
Danzig Moon (5) Itsaknockout (13) Keen Ice (14) War Story (16)
Far Right (20)
Kentucky Derby Long
Shot contendors
Far Right (30-1)
Danzig Moon (30-1)
Below are pictures I took of leading Kentucky Derby candidates from the Todd Pletcher barn Carpe Diem and Materiality. In these photos taken Tuesday, both horses are having their first school in the Churchill Downs paddock. Materiality is above while Carpe Diem is the second photo.
-Corbin Blumberg
