The 138th running of the Preakness Stakes, the
middle leg of the Triple Crown, always features the Kentucky Derby winner as
the hope of the first Triple Crown winner in 35 years. This year the
spotlight lands on Orb. Two weeks ago, Orb stormed home in the slop to take the
139th running of the Kentucky Derby. While Orb will be a heavy
favorite in this year’s Preakness Stakes (GI) he faces eight other horses
looking to end his Triple Crown bid. Out of the nine entered in the Preakness,
six come out of the Kentucky Derby, along with three newcomers to the Triple
Crown series. Below is an in-depth analysis on each horse running in the 138th
Preakness Stakes. I hope to improve your knowledge of each entrant. At the very
bottom are my selections. Enjoy the Preakness Stakes and good luck~
Horse-by-Horse Preakness Stakes Analysis
PP Horse Name ML Odds Corbin’s Odds
1. Orb 1/1
2/5
Orb comes into the
Preakness Stakes off a dominant win in the Kentucky Derby (GI). As the hope to
be the first Triple Crown winner in 35 years, Orb will garner the majority of
the attention from the public on Preakness day, and deservingly so. Orb has
done nothing wrong in 2013. He is four for four this year and has won his last
five starts. Orb has improved rapidly evidenced by his impressive performance
in the Kentucky Derby. In the Derby, Orb handled every obstacle thrown at him,
from the sloppy track to being far back early on to rally in the stretch to win.
Trainer Shug McGaughey has been extremely high on Orb since his impressive
Kentucky Derby triumph. Drawing the rail as the heavy favorite is not a good
place to be. Rosario will have to navigate his way through the field. Orb has
proved to be tactical though; in the Florida Derby he sat much closer to the pace
than he did in the Kentucky Derby. I expect Rosario to be closer than he was in
the Kentucky Derby, sitting off of the main speed in the race. If Orb gets a
clean trip, he is by far the best horse in the race. While there are obstacles
to overcome in the Preakness, bouncing back in two weeks, and drawing the rail,
Orb has handled everything so far.
I expect Orb to remain undefeated in 2013, and head to Belmont Park with
a chance at the Triple Crown.
2. Goldencents 8-1 10-1
Goldencents was a
non-factor in the Kentucky Derby, finishing 17th out of 19 in the
race. Ridden in the Preakness by Kevin Krigger, and trained by Doug O’Neil,
Goldencents will look to bounce back from that abysmal effort. Goldencents
appeared unable to handle the sloppy track or getting dirt kicked in his face
at Churchill Downs. I expect
Krigger to go to the lead on Goldencents. While I believe Goldencents will run
much better than he did in Louisville two weeks ago, I still believe the
distance of 13/16 miles will be too long. I look for Goldencents to run well but
he will not be good enough to win the Preakness Stakes.
3. Titletown Five 30-1 45-1
Titletown Five is the
first of the newcomers in the Preakness. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden
by Julien Leparoux, Titletown Five comes into the Preakness Stakes off a fourth
place finish in the Derby Trial (GIII) at Churchill Downs three weeks ago. In
the one mile Derby Trial, Titletown Five pressed the pace early and faded late.
I look for a similar result in the Preakness. In Titletown Five’s only start
around two turns, he finished ninth in the Louisiana Derby (GII). I expect
Titletown Five and Goldencents to be battling for the lead early, and this will
take a toll on both of them. I believe Titletown Five will be a non-factor on
Saturday.
4. Departing 6-1 9/2
Departing, trained by Al
Stall Jr. and ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr, comes into the Preakness Stakes off
a dominating victory in the Illinois Derby (GIII) four weeks ago. Following the race Stall elected to skip
the Kentucky Derby and point to the Preakness. Departing may be the biggest
threat to Orb. The gelding is four for five lifetime with his only loss coming
in the Louisiana Derby (GII). In that race Departing did not have the best trip,
and still was able to beat Golden Soul, who ran second in the Kentucky Derby.
Following the Louisiana Derby, Departing dismantled an overmatched field in the
Illinois Derby. Departing is coming into the Preakness fresh, and is talented
enough to have a say in the outcome of the Preakness. I look for Departing to
be close to Orb the entire way around the track, as they have similar running
styles. While I do not believe Departing is fast enough to defeat Orb, I fully
expect Departing to hit the board on Saturday.
5. Mylute 5-1
8-1
Mylute comes into the
Preakness Stakes off a solid fifth place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Ridden
by Rosie Napravnik and trained by Tom Amoss, Mylute was taken well off the pace
early on in the Derby and made a strong late move. Mylute should benefit from
the slight cutback in distance, but I still believe, as I did in the Kentucky
Derby that he is not good enough to win.
Mylute had everything his own way, he handled the sloppy track, and had
a very fast pace in front of him, but still he was not able to close fast
enough to win. He will not be able to pass horses like Orb, Departing or Itsmyluckyday
late in the Preakness so I do not expect Mylute to hit the board on Saturday,
6. Oxbow 15-1 15-1
Oxbow comes into the
Preakness Stakes off a sixth place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Trained by D.
Wayne Lukas and ridden by Gary Stevens, Oxbow ran a deceptively good race in
the Derby. Chasing the fast early pace Oxbow made a minor move at the top of
the stretch only to fade late. While he did not make a huge impact, he was the
only horse to be part of the early pace to run well. Oxbow should get a good
trip sitting right off of Goldencents and Titletown Five. While he should have
a chance to win at the top of the stretch, I believe he is not quite talented
enough to hit the board, but I expect another solid effort.
7. Will Take Charge
12-1 20-1
Will Take Charge, the
third horse trained by D. Wayne Lukas finished eighth in the Kentucky Derby.
Will Take Charge was making a solid move, right alongside Orb when he ran into
traffic trouble. Ridden by Jon Court in the Derby, Will Take Charge will now be
ridden by Mike Smith. I expect this horse to be over bet on Saturday, because
he was stopped badly and many people will expect more. I liked him in the Derby, but I am not
as enthusiastic about him here. He will struggle coming back in two weeks as he
ran really hard in the Derby, and he has not yet put two strong races together
in a row. I expect Will Take
Charge to finish towards the back of the pack on Saturday.
8. Governor Charlie
12-1 20-1
Governor Charlie, trained
by Bob Baffert and ridden by Martin Garcia, comes into the Preakness Stakes off
a win in the Sunland Derby (GIII). However, the Sunland Derby was eight weeks
ago. Governor Charlie was aimed to the Kentucky Derby, but had foot problems
forcing him to miss the race. There are too many issues with Governor Charlie
for him to win the Preakness. He has not run in eight weeks and he has missed
training because of the foot issues. He has been playing catch-up, which is not
the way a horse should be coming into a classic race. Lastly, he has only
started three times, and never against horses of this quality. Governor
Charlie, will be over bet because Bob Baffert trains him. I strongly dislike
Governor Charlie in the Preakness Stakes.
9. Itsmyluckyday 10-1 8-1
Itsmyluckyday comes into
the Preakness off of a 15th place finish in the Kentucky Derby.
Trained by Eddie Plesa Jr. and ridden in the Preakness by John Velasquez, Itsmyluckyday
appeared to not handle the track well at Churchill Downs. Since his impressive
win in the Holy Bull Stakes (GIII) at Gulfstream Park, Itsmyluckyday has been
relatively disappointing. I expected a huge performance in the Kentucky Derby,
but he did not fire. Itsmyluckyday had a strong workout on Sunday at Monmouth
Park, evidence he has rebounded from his disappointing performance at Churchill
Downs. I like the jockey change from Elvis Trujillo to hall of famer John
Velasquez. Velasquez should navigate a good trip from right off the pace, and I
expect a big effort from Itsmyluckyday on a fast track on Saturday.
Selections
1. Orb
2. Itsmyluckyday
3. Departing
Longshot
Oxbow
No comments:
Post a Comment